589
FXUS62 KTBW 051237
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
837 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
NHC has named TS Chantal in W Atlantic off the GA coast while
residual trough remains stretched across the C FL Peninsula in
the warm and humid atmosphere. Morning sounding still sampling
Pwats nr 2 inches and expected diurnal heating and seabreeze
boundaries to produce scattered to numerous afternoon into
evening TSRA across the area. Latest grids and forecasts on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue outside of ISOLD morning SHRA in E Gulf
moving ashore as light winds to become SW seabreeze influenced
by 15Z when daytime heating produces SCT TSRA thru 00Z to keep VC
in terminals most of the day ending around 00Z with VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A lot less activity morning with only a shower or two over the
northern waters. ACARS soundings show PWs between 1.65 and 1.5
inches, which could explain the lack of activity along with the
lack of instability. Most of the guidance kept at least scattered
showers over the water, but given the current conditions is has
been over estimated. Light northerly winds become southwesterly
through the day. In addition, lingering upper level energy
associated with Tropical Depression Three northeast of the state,
combined with the expected available moisture and afternoon
heating should support convection to develop today. There will be
pockets of drier air mover over SW portions of the CWA limiting
coverage in this area. A potential for training storms remains a
possibility, especially areas that have had significant amounts in
the past few days. Afternoon temperatures stay around 90 degrees
through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

During the long term, slightly drier air gradually starts to wrap
into the area as the trough moves north to northeast. This will
bring rain coverage down. However, southwesterly winds prevail
with scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in
the late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior
through early evening. By mid week, moisture increase model
guidance bring another disturbance along with additional moisture
to the state. This will likely increase rain chances, but slightly
drier air may also be in the vicinity. Depending on what scenario
materializes, will be how much and where the showers/storms will
develop. Lastly, afternoon highs remain in the 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Deep tropical moisture will continue to support scattered to
numerous shower and thunderstorm development this weekend. The
highest rain chances should generally occur in the overnight and
morning hours each day as southwest flow should keep most of the
precipitation activity over land during the afternoon and evening
hours. Winds outside of any thunderstorm activity will generally
be out of the southwest at 5-10 kts throughout the weekend and
slightly drier air then begins to move into the area by next week
with rain chances decreasing slightly, though daily showers and
storms will remain possible each day and mostly favored once again
in the overnight and morning hours as onshore flow continues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Ample moisture across the peninsula will continue to support periods
of showers and storms through the period. Northerly winds become
southwesterly into early next week. This will keep fire weather
concerns out of the area during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  80 /  70  50  70  20
FMY  89  77  91  77 /  70  40  50   0
GIF  89  76  91  76 /  80  40  70   0
SRQ  89  77  89  78 /  70  50  70  20
BKV  89  72  90  74 /  70  50  70  10
SPG  87  78  87  79 /  70  50  70  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce