Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
973 FXUS62 KTBW 081855 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend. - Limited heat risk with warm and humid conditions through Friday. - Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected this weekend into the first half of next week. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Scattered mainly light showers are moving quickly west across parts of the Nature Coast as well as southern interior into southwest Florida at this time. These showers will continue to move west and weaken as they move out into the gulf later this afternoon and early evening followed by mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight. For Thursday the breezy east to northeast flow will persist with some deeper moisture spreading north to around the Interstate 4 corridor. This will combine with daytime heating leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during mainly the afternoon and early evening hours across much of the region. A similar pattern is expected for Friday. As we move into the weekend an area of low pressure is expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast and then move north along the eastern seaboard. As this occurs the flow around system along with high pressure well to the north will usher in some drier and slightly cooler air into the area. A few light showers/sprinkles will remain possible over the interior Saturday afternoon, otherwise rain chances will become slim to none for the first half of next week. Daytime highs will continue to climb into the 80s during this time, but dew points are forecast to dip into the upper 50s and 60s making it feel much more comfortable. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could potentially cause some brief MVFR/local IFR conditions at the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW this afternoon and early evening. Also, late tonight into early Thursday morning there is a possibility of some MVFR/IFR ceilings around the Tampa Bay and I-4 corridor. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF forecast period. East to northeast winds will continue at around 10 knots with some higher gusts into this evening, then diminishing to 4 to 7 knots late this evening into early Thursday morning before increasing back to around 10 knots with higher gusts by late Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions at times through the week and into the weekend. A moderately tight pressure gradient will keep gusty northeast to east winds over parts of the coastal waters at SCEC levels through Thursday with winds 15-20 knots and seas 3-5 feet. The gradient tightens with increasing winds Thursday night into the weekend as a cold front moves through the waters with a SCA likely being needed during this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Warm temperatures and humid surface conditions will continue with occasionaly gusty east to northeast winds. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through Friday. A cold front is expected to move through the region this weekend with drier conditions into early next week, however RH values should remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 74 86 / 0 20 10 30 FMY 75 89 73 87 / 10 50 30 50 GIF 73 88 73 85 / 0 20 20 40 SRQ 73 89 73 87 / 0 20 10 30 BKV 70 88 71 84 / 0 20 10 30 SPG 75 87 74 84 / 0 20 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley