925
FXUS62 KTBW 130740
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A region of high pressure continues to sit over the state of Florida
with associated weak westerly or northwesterly flow throughout the
day. Although this pattern is not typically linked with high rain
chances, there is a sizable amount of atmospheric moisture currently
present, leading to 60% to 70% chances for showers and thunderstorms
across inland areas with values closer to 40% and 50% in coastal
regions. With onshore flow for the state`s west coast, earlier
activity during the morning or early afternoon is a possibility,
specifically for the Nature Coast and our southwest counties.

Looking ahead into early this week, an area of low pressure is
expected to move across Florida into the northeastern Gulf, where
it could potentially turn into a tropical system as it continues
to move away to the west during midweek. According to the Weather
Prediction Center, this system brings along a slight risk (at
least 15%) of excessive rainfall to our region. In the case of
excessive rainfall, localized flash flooding can occur, especially
in urban, low lying and poor drainage areas.

Elevated rainfall chances are expected throughout the entire week,
and so high temperatures should be a bit subdued, with values
expected to range from upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures
should stay in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions are in place currently, and they are expected to
prevail through the forecast period outside of any shower or
thunderstorm activity. Convective activity could potentially
fire up in the morning or early afternoon near the coast and then
move inland this afternoon and evening causing MVFR/local IFR
conditions. A few more showers and possibly a thunderstorm could
develop late tonight into early Monday tomorrow near the coast.

Weak westerly to northwesterly flow is expected for today with wind
speeds at around 10 kts or less, although localized erratic and
gusty winds will occur in the vicinity of any convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

High pressure will hold over the waters through tonight. An area
of low pressure may develop and move west across the waters Monday
and Tuesday and then well west of the area by midweek. This will
bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the
upcoming week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
cautionary levels at this time, but gusty winds and locally rough
seas will occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Moisture will
increase with best chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms
on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  90  77 /  50  50  90  60
FMY  93  77  90  75 /  70  50  90  60
GIF  94  76  92  75 /  70  50  90  40
SRQ  91  78  90  74 /  40  30  80  70
BKV  92  74  92  72 /  60  50  90  50
SPG  90  79  88  76 /  40  40  80  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Poggiali
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Hurt