885
FXUS62 KTBW 210624
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
224 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Upper ridging and surface high pressure remains south of Florida
stretching across Cuba and into the southern gulf. Upper troughing
extends across northern Florida and along the northern gulf coast
states. Farther to the northeast, Hurricane Erin continues to churn
in the western Atlantic just off the mid-Atlantic states. Hurricane
Erin is expected to continue moving north and northeast for the next
few days as it pulls away from the eastern coast of the U.S. With
Florida situated between ridging to the south and trouging to the
north, we will see a predominant onshore wind flow for the next few
days. We will also see an uptick in moisture with PWAT values around
1.8 - 2.2 inches. This will equate to higher rain chances with
scattered to numerous showers and storms through the end of the
week.

By Saturday morning, Hurricane Erin has moved well to the northeast
into the northern Atlantic. A stationary frontal boundary stretches
west to east along the northern gulf coast states and across
northern Florida. This boundary sits between high pressure over the
mid-Atlantic states and high pressure ridging in the Florida
Straits. This pattern remains relatively unchanged through the
weekend. Ample moisture and onshore flow will support scattered to
numerous showers and storms through the weekend with early
development over the coastal waters and moving eastward during the
day.

By Monday morning, an area of low pressure develops along the
stationary boundary and moves northeastward off the mid-Atlantic
coast. Not a lot of change in the synoptic pattern over Florida as
the stationary boundary remains over northern Florida, high pressure
ridging remains over south Florida, resulting in continued onshore
flow. By next Wednesday and Thursday, the stationary boundary will
push south and east of Florida as high pressure builds in to the
north over the southeast CONUS. This will bring a shift in winds to
the north late Tuesday into Wednesday.

With all that being said, Florida will remain in an onshore flow
pattern for most of the forecast period. This will equate to at
least scattered showers and isolated storms each day. The timing
will be early in the day along the coastal waters and traversing
eastward to the interior during the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures will be right around average or a couple of degrees
above each afternoon. This combined with higher humidity will bring
apparent temperatures to around 100-107 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots will prevail
outside of thunderstorms at all terminals through the period. Model
guidance has showers and storms firing up over the eastern gulf
waters this morning and moving eastward toward the terminals after
13Z, so will hold VCSH and VCTS at all terminals through around 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Persistent west-southwest winds around 10 knots will continue over
the eastern gulf waters for the remainder of the week and into the
weekend. We will see an increase in showers and storms over the
coming days with showers and storms firing up over the eastern gulf
waters early morning and traversing eastward toward the coast late
morning and into the afternoon. Outside of thunderstorms, winds and
seas remain below headline criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Abundant moisture will keep RH values above critical levels through
the period. Scattered to numerous summertime showers and storms
expected each day. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain light
at 10 mph or less, precluding any fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  82  92  82 /  60  40  70  50
FMY  92  80  93  79 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  95  76  94  76 /  60  30  80  40
SRQ  91  80  91  79 /  50  40  50  50
BKV  93  75  91  74 /  60  40  70  50
SPG  89  80  88  81 /  50  50  60  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Close