Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
023
FNUS72 KTAE 271138
FWSTAE
Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 416...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
738 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning to
early afternoon and could produce gusty erratic winds through the
burn area. With the moisture increase, we are not expecting gusts
to be as strong as earlier this week. Otherwise, winds will
transition to southerly late morning through the rest of today.
With a similar day in store for tomorrow.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the late morning and early
afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms
likely early in the afternoon. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................30 percent increasing to 40 percent in the late
morning and early afternoon, then increasing to
60 percent early in the afternoon increasing to
70 percent late in the afternoon decreasing to
50 percent decreasing to 40 percent late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 5 mph shifting to the south 3 to 8
mph late in the morning.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....10 increasing to 28.
TIME (EDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........36 46 58 55 54 60 61 66 50
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC
CWR.............30 40 40 40 40 60 70 50 40
Temp............79 83 85 86 88 88 87 87 88
RH..............85 77 70 68 61 63 65 65 61
20 FT wind dir..N N E SE SE S S S S
20 FT wind spd..0 0 1 2 3 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.2 2 3 6 7 10 10 9 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.0
Transp wind dir.E SE SE SE S S S S S
Transp wind spd.5 3 3 3 5 7 7 7 8
Dispersion......7 8 10 12 18 22 20 24 28
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 20 percent early in
the evening, then decreasing to 10 percent late
in the evening increasing to 20 percent
overnight decreasing to 10 percent increasing
to 20 percent after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms overnight, then gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 8 mph.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....21 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
Sky (%).........43 42 30 31 31 21 13 11 15 39 28 37
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............30 30 20 10 10 10 20 10 10 10 20 20
Temp............87 85 84 81 80 79 78 77 77 76 75 75
RH..............65 67 70 79 82 82 85 88 88 90 90 90
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT wind gust.9 7 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 5 5 6
Dispersion......24 18 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3
LVORI...........3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
then showers and thunderstorms likely early in
the morning. Showers and thunderstorms late in
the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 13
mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 42.
TIME (EDT) 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM
Sky (%).........48 56 53 42 44 45 53 60 68 63 59 54
Weather cov.....SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
CWR.............20 20 70 70 70 70 70 70 80 80 80 80
Temp............75 74 77 82 85 87 88 89 89 89 89 88
RH..............90 93 88 79 72 65 63 61 61 61 61 63
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N SW SW S S S SW SW
20 FT wind spd..0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 5 6 6 5
20 FT wind gust.2 2 2 2 2 3 6 7 10 13 13 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Transp wind dir.W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.5 3 2 3 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 13
Dispersion......2 2 3 7 16 27 32 32 33 37 42 46
LVORI...........6 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
$$
Forecaster...Humphreys
Requested by...Bart Rye
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516781.0/TAE
.DELDT 06/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barton_rye@fws.gov