Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
023
FNUS72 KTAE 051221
FWSTAE
Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 154 and 155...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
821 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
A few passing showers remain possible this morning as onshore flow
remains over the burn site. Mixing heights climb above 2,000 feet
by 10am or so along with dispersions improving above 40 units.
Light southwesterly winds this morning increase to about 10 mph
this afternoon outside of any showers and thunderstorms, of which
there is a 60 to 80 percent chance throughout the day. Transport
winds will be out of the south-southwest today at 10 to 15mph.
Similar conditions are anticipated Friday with better dispersions
and higher mixing heights anticipated.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Showers and
chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................70 percent increasing to 80 percent late in the
morning, then decreasing to 70 percent late in
the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 17 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....28 increasing to 51.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32 39 37 46 50 39 52 46 41
Weather cov.....LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............70 70 80 80 80 80 80 80 70
Temp............78 82 83 85 85 85 85 85 85
RH..............91 85 82 80 77 80 80 82 82
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.12 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
Transp wind spd.12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17
Dispersion......24 32 40 42 42 45 47 50 52
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms early in the
evening, then slight chance of showers early in
the evening. Slight chance of showers early in
the morning.
CWR.................70 percent decreasing to 20 percent early in
the evening, then decreasing to 10 percent late
in the evening increasing to 20 percent early
in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....44 decreasing to 7 early in the evening.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........42 26 30 29 33 24 21 19 23 32 38 52
Weather cov.....LKY LKY SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC
CWR.............70 70 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 20
Temp............85 84 83 81 80 79 78 77 77 76 75 75
RH..............82 85 85 88 88 88 91 94 90 94 94 94
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.16 15 14 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.17 17 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 9
Dispersion......47 40 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 13 mph shifting to the southwest 14
to 18 mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then
increasing to 33 late in the morning increasing
to 49 late in the afternoon decreasing to 43.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34 46 40 29 27 32 32 31 31 33 36 37
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC
CWR.............20 20 50 50 50 50 50 50 70 70 70 70
Temp............75 74 76 78 82 85 86 86 87 86 86 85
RH..............94 94 100 94 82 75 74 73 72 74 75 77
20 FT wind dir..W W W W SW SW SW SW S S SW SW
20 FT wind spd..1 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 6 7 8 8
20 FT wind gust.7 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 13 14 15 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.3 1.9
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W SW SW S SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.8 8 8 8 8 9 10 13 14 16 17 18
Dispersion......4 4 9 14 21 29 36 44 53 51 49 43
LVORI...........7 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Reese
Requested by...T. Pollard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2515391.0/TAE
.DELDT 06/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis_pollard@fws.gov