Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
026
FNUS72 KTAE 261259
FWSTAE
Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 418...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
859 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Wind will initially be out of the northeast this morning, leading
to offshore flow. Late this morning into the early afternoon the
sea breeze begins to move onshore and push inland, leading to
southeast to southerly flow this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, at or near the burn
site, generally between 2pm and 8pm, leading to potentially
erratic wind conditions. Otherwise, dispersions are expected to be
fair.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the morning,
then chance of showers and thunderstorms late
in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms
likely late in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
morning, then increasing to 40 percent early in
the afternoon increasing to 60 percent early in
the afternoon increasing to 70 percent
decreasing to 60 percent late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
early in the afternoon, then shifting to the
south late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 13 mph shifting to the south
around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Dispersion index....24 increasing to 26 in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48 47 45 52 53 57 62 58 57
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............20 20 30 30 40 60 70 60 60
Temp............77 82 85 88 89 91 92 92 89
RH..............82 72 63 57 56 52 52 52 57
20 FT wind dir..E E E SE SE SE S S SW
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.NE NE E E E E SE S S
Transp wind spd.13 13 13 10 8 7 7 7 7
Dispersion......19 25 28 30 29 26 23 22 22
LVORI...........3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening and
overnight. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after 3 am.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 50 percent early in
the evening, then decreasing to 40 percent
early in the evening decreasing to 30 percent
in the late evening and overnight decreasing to
10 percent increasing to 20 percent after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west
around 7 mph late in the evening, then shifting
to the north 3 to 6 mph late in the evening
shifting to the west around 3 mph overnight.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....19 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........54 62 59 78 70 58 53 51 42 55 48 36
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............40 50 40 40 30 30 30 30 10 20 20 20
Temp............89 88 84 80 79 78 77 76 76 75 74 73
RH..............57 59 67 74 79 85 88 90 87 90 97 97
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW NE N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
20 FT wind gust.9 7 3 3 5 2 2 2 3 2 2 3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S SW SW W N NE N W SW W NW NW
Transp wind spd.7 8 8 7 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispersion......20 17 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the
southwest 3 to 10 mph in the late morning and
afternoon, then increasing to around 13 mph
late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 38.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........49 53 52 52 52 52 51 48 46 46 46 46
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC
CWR.............20 20 50 50 50 50 50 50 70 70 70 70
Temp............73 72 75 79 85 87 88 89 90 89 89 88
RH..............93 100 94 88 72 65 61 59 58 57 57 57
20 FT wind dir..NE N N N N S S S S S SW SW
20 FT wind spd..1 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.3 2 2 2 2 5 6 8 9 10 10 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.6 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 8 10 13
Dispersion......1 1 3 6 11 14 17 22 27 35 40 39
LVORI...........7 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Oliver
Requested by...T. Pollard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516725.0/TAE
.DELDT 06/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis_pollard@fws.gov