424
FNUS72 KTAE 221122
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 216 PB 5...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
722 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
The main fire concerns continue to revolve around daily chances
for fog, although there appears to be no threat at the burn site
this morning. A persistent moist southerly wind keeps RH values
above critical thresholds despite lacking precipitation.
Diurnal seabreezes are also expected, leading to locally gusty
winds, a sudden directional shift, and sharp rises in humidity.
Lastly, conditions will be very warm through early next week with
high temperatures at or near 90 degrees, especially Friday-Tuesday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........69 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................84 percent at ignition...Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 0 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 3 mph shifting to the southwest 6 to
                    8 mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 30.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  75  77  71  74  67  75  74  73
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............69  74  78  81  82  83  84  83  82
RH..............84  74  67  60  56  55  53  55  56
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   1   2   3   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.2   3   5   6   7   9   9   10  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.6 4.0 3.3 2.7
Transp wind dir.E   SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.2   3   3   5   5   6   7   8   8
Dispersion......3   7   10  17  22  30  31  30  28
LVORI...........5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 63.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest
                    5 to 6 mph overnight.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....19 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  75  47  27  27  18  16  21  20  52  56  61
Weather cov.....                                            PTY
Weather type....                                            FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............81  79  76  74  72  70  69  67  66  66  65  65
RH..............58  62  69  74  76  81  84  87  90  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind gust.10  10  9   7   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   5   5
Dispersion......22  15  4   4   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   4   5   5   6   6   6   7   7

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 87.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph shifting to the south 6
                    to 9 mph late in the morning.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 33.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  59  66  49  43  37  32  35  37  34  28  25
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  65  63  67  74  81  83  85  86  86  85  85
RH..............90  90  97  93  76  60  57  53  50  50  51  51
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   3   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.3   3   3   3   3   3   5   7   8   9   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.5 3.8 3.2 2.5
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   9
Dispersion......2   2   4   6   11  18  24  30  36  35  34  30
LVORI...........7   7   7   6   4   2   2   2   1   1   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Wool
Requested by...Bart Rye
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2511276.0/TAE
.DELDT 04/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barton_rye@fws.gov