Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
989
FNUS72 KTAE 221042
FWSTAE
Spot Forecast for SMR Unit 333...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
642 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on July 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns at the burn site will be related to hot
temperatures for folks on the ground and scattered to widespread
shower and storm development today. Winds will be light and
northwesterly through the morning at the burn site, however
uncertainty in the surface wind direction increases by 1 or 2pm
this afternoon as any outflows from early thunderstorm development
and the potential seabreeze turning winds more southwesterly, or
even southerly, develops. Despite the variability in the surface
winds, transport winds will generally remain northwesterly to
westerly through the day. Northwesterly transport winds should
keep thunderstorm activity confined to the coast through much of
the day, even as activity slowly develops further inland through
the afternoon. Isolated shower and storm activity potentially continues
into the overnight hours, possibly as late as 2am depending on
how storms evolve today. A wet afternoon on Wednesday is likely
with high chances for wetting rains and much higher RHs.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
then showers and thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds in the morning.
Increasing in the afternoon to around 5 to 8
mph with a variable direction. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 12 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....11 increasing to 34 in the late morning and
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28 28 23 23 23 43 43 43 59 59 59
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............20 20 30 30 30 40 40 40 60 60 60
Temp............78 79 85 89 91 93 95 95 94 94 92
RH..............94 94 80 73 66 62 56 56 58 58 62
20 FT wind dir..W NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.3
Transp wind dir.W W NW NW N N N N NW W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 12
Dispersion......11 11 31 31 31 36 36 36 36 36 36
LVORI...........6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................60 percent decreasing to 40 percent late in the
evening. Decreasing to 30 percent after 2 am.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the evening and
overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph shifting to the northwest 5 to
7 mph late in the evening.
LVORI...............5.
Dispersion index....22 decreasing to 4 in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69 69 69 78 78 78 69 69 69 58 58 58
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............60 60 60 40 40 40 50 50 50 30 30 30
Temp............88 87 84 83 82 80 79 79 79 78 78 77
RH..............72 75 80 82 85 88 91 91 91 94 91 94
20 FT wind dir..W W W W N N NW NW NW NW W NW
20 FT wind spd..6 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2
20 FT wind gust.10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW W W
Transp wind spd.12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5
Dispersion......22 22 22 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the morning, then
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................70 percent increasing to 90 percent in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 21 in the late morning and
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48 48 48 45 45 45 55 55 55 68 68 68
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
CWR.............70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90 90
Temp............77 76 78 81 84 87 88 89 90 90 90 87
RH..............94 97 97 91 82 77 75 73 70 68 68 75
20 FT wind dir..NW N N N NE NE E E SE SE SE S
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.7
Transp wind dir.NW NW N N NE NE E E SE SE S S
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 9 10
Dispersion......6 6 6 19 19 19 20 20 20 23 23 23
LVORI...........7 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Dobbs
Requested by...T. Pollard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2518400.0/TAE
.DELDT 07/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis_pollard@fws.gov