160
FNUS72 KTAE 051359
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for SMR unit 216 PB 12...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
959 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...A fairly dry air mass is located over the burn site
today, following passage of a cold front on Sunday morning. A
southerly seabreeze will kick in pretty suddenly between about 1
pm and 3 pm. Good dispersion is forecast this afternoon, thanks to
deep vertical mixing and a moderate westerly transport wind. For
tonight, the dry air mass should preclude fog development.
Dispersion on Tuesday will be fair, as transport winds diminish.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
Dispersion index....19 increasing to 63.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   1   3   3   2   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............72  76  80  81  83  83  83  82
RH..............53  45  39  39  38  40  41  44
20 FT wind dir..NE  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   5   6   7   8
20 FT wind gust.5   6   7   9   12  13  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   8   10  12  13  13
Dispersion......15  23  34  50  61  64  64  61
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 13 mph shifting to the north 7
                    to 8 mph after 3 am.
LVORI...............3.
Dispersion index....47 decreasing to 5.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   2   3   4   8   6   9   19  6   10  11  7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............82  80  77  75  71  69  67  66  65  64  63  62
RH..............46  51  56  60  68  68  73  75  78  78  81  81
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   5   5   3   2   2   2   1   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.14  14  13  10  10  9   8   7   6   7   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.13  13  12  10  9   8   7   7   6   7   8   8
Dispersion......47  29  7   6   5   5   4   3   3   3   4   4
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    shifting to the southwest 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 19 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  10  5   4   16  13  17  25  29  29  29  29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............62  61  62  67  73  77  80  82  85  85  86  86
RH..............78  78  75  65  55  48  44  40  36  37  36  37
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.8   9   8   8   7   6   5   6   6   7   8   9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   S   SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.9   9   8   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   6
Dispersion......4   4   8   12  17  19  18  20  21  20  21  21
LVORI...........4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Haner
Requested by...Bart Rye
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2512954.0/TAE
.DELDT 05/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL barton_rye@fws.gov