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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
244 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

As an anomalously moist environment surges northward from Tropical
Storm Rafael into the southeast US, locally heavy rainfall will
become possible Wednesday through Thursday, primarily in southwest
Georgia. This will interact with a trough, providing a focus for
heavier rainfall to develop, but the exact position remains
uncertain.

Currently, the most likely rainfall totals are around 1.5 to 3
inches across southwest Georgia. However, there is about a 30 to 40
percent chance of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and about a 20 to 30
percent chance of exceeding 6 inches. These probabilities are
highest around the Albany, Tifton, and Fitzgerald areas. Current
flash flood guidance is about 3.5 inches in 1 hour or 5 inches in 6
hours across southwest Georgia.

In addition, given the lack of any meaningful rainfall over the last
month, the ground has likely hardened in spots, making these areas
more prone to excessive runoff. Thus, the threat of flash flooding
will likely come from high rainfall rates, which are harder to pin
down on exact location. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined
much of southwest Georgia in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
(level 2 of 4) on Wednesday, meaning there is at least a 15 percent
of exceeding flash flood guidance. That risk decreases to Marginal
(level 1 of 4) on Thursday.

Rivers are running low at the moment given the very dry October. It
will take over 7 inches of rain for the rivers to get close to minor
flood, which is unlikely at this point. Chances for rivers in
southwest Georgia to reach minor flood are generally less than 5
percent at this time.

If confidence in where the heaviest rainfall sets up or if the
chances for heavy rainfall increases, a Flood Watch may be needed
for parts of the area. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts tonight
into Wednesday morning.

$$

73-YOUNG