013
FGUS72 KTAE 042017
ESFTAE
FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-065-073-077-129-131-133-051800-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
417 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASING LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

.Antecedent Conditions...
Over the last month, rainfall has been sparse across the Florida
Panhandle, with many areas more than 4 to 6 inches below normal for
August. This has led to below to well below normal streamflows,
rapidly increasing drought conditions, and an elevated fire risk.
Conditions further east of the Apalachicola River are better, with
rainfall deficits not as extreme, or in the areas east of the
Aucilla River, rainfall surpluses are common in the wake of
Hurricane Debby.

.Forecast and Outlook...
A frontal zone in place across the Gulf Coast States will remain in
place into Saturday. By Thursday evening, a weak area of low
pressure and upper level disturbance will move along this frontal
zone, enhancing the potential for heavy rainfall, some of which
could be significant by Friday. The most significant rains are
expected to be focused along the Florida Panhandle Coast, with some
potential for impactful rainfall further inland, south of the
Florida State Line. Rainfall amounts along the immediate coast could
be as much as 6 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts possible.
Further inland throughout the remainder of the outlook area in
Florida, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible.

Within the urban coastal zone, rainfall amounts of this magnitude
could cause considerable flash flooding on Friday into Saturday with
isolated flash flooding possible elsewhere in interior portions of
the Florida Panhandle.

Due to the extensive dry conditions and the heaviest rains falling
near the coast, riverine flooding is not expected with this event.

.Preparedness Information...
There still remains some uncertainty as to where the heaviest
rainfall will occur. However a flood watch may be needed by
Thursday. Now is a good time to prepare if you live in an area
vulnerable to flash flooding or riverine flooding. Flooding is
especially dangerous at night. If you live in a flood zone, know
your risk and be prepared to take action should heavier rainfall
occur.

For the latest forecasts visit our website at https://weather.
gov/tallahassee

$$

Godsey