712
FXUS62 KTAE 111410
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The isolated patches of dense fog have largely dispersed and full
sunshine should continue for much of the day. Only changes to the
forecast today were to nudge dew points and humidity downward for
the afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Surface high pressure will move across the northern Gulf towards
the Florida peninsula through tonight while weak shortwave ridging
builds overhead. As winds have become calm across southern
Georgia, patchy fog has developed from Quitman county southeast to
Colquitt county. A gradual expansion in fog is possible if winds
become calm elsewhere before dawn. Fog should dissipate after
sunrise leaving behind sunny skies today and clear skies into the
evening. Overnight Tuesday night, fog is possible across the
Florida panhandle and big bend.

Overall, a northwest wind this morning will give way to west to
southwest winds later today and tonight with high pressure
translating east. Highs today will generally make the mid 70s area
wide. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

High pressure will continue to influence our weather for
Wednesday as upper level ridging continues to build. Temperatures
will be in mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s in
the east, and low to mid-50s for areas west of I-75, with dry
conditions and light southwest breezes. There could be some patchy
fog in the eastern Big Bend Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. On Thursday, a weakening upper level shortwave trough
from the southern plains will be approaching the Mississippi
valley. This shortwave will bring a complex of showers and
thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast states as the trough continues
east. Most of the forcing mechanisms will lift north prior to its
arrival in the Southeast, limiting its potential for severe
storms; however gusty winds cannot be completely ruled out. PoPs
for Thursday range from 30-60 percent for our Florida and Georgia
counties. Southeast Alabama will have the highest chances ranging
60-80 percent. Due to the rain and cloud cover, temperatures on
Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs in the low 70s.
Thursday night`s temps will be mild in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Behind the trough, ridging will build over the region again, but
only briefly. A strong surface low with an accompanying upper
level low over the Southern/central plains will move east towards
the Mississippi Valley on Friday. The system center will quickly
lift north towards the Great Lakes, disassociating from the
attending cold front. The front will then be "picked up" by the
broader upper level trough to continue its push east through
Monday. This cold front will bring us showers and thunderstorms
for late this weekend into Monday. The system could also bring us
heavy rainfall, as well as severe storms. The SPC has highlighted
the northwestern portion of our CWA in a 30%, equal to an Enhanced
(3 of 5) Risk for severe storms for Saturday. The WPC has
highlighted areas west of the Albany/Panama City line in a
Marginal (1 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday. PoPs
for Saturday through Saturday night range from 50 to 80 percent.
As of now, forecast rainfall totals range from about 0.5" to 1.5".
Monitor the forecast as these values are likely to be adjusted,
as well as for more information on the severe modes we may expect.

Temperatures for the long term will be balmy in the upper 70s to
low 80s with low to mid-70s for Monday following the cold front.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s, with cooling
temperatures heading into Monday morning. However, this will
depend on the timing of the front that is still about a week away.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Patchy fog has developed in areas where winds went calm overnight
at ECP and ABY and perhaps VLD over the next few hours. Fog is
expected to dissipate by 13Z with VFR conds everywhere for the
rest of the day. Winds will gradually turn from the northwest to
southwest as high pressure moves across the Gulf waters. Patchy
fog appears to develop overnight tonight across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend but confidence is low in impacts to
TLH/ECP at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Seas will gradually decrease today and favorable boating
conditions return to the region as high pressure settles over the
area. Onshore flow can be expected through the rest of the week
and will begin to increase Thursday as a shortwave disturbance
moves through, and then more chances for showers and thunderstorms
arrive Saturday through the weekend; bringing potentially
Advisory level winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

High pressure will move across the northern Gulf today and
Wednesday featuring lighter northwest to west winds becoming
southwest Wednesday with speeds ticking up a bit. This will lead
to pockets of high dispersions Wednesday mainly north of I-10. A
much drier airmass will set up through midweek featuring mid-20 to
mid-30 RHs today and mid-30 RHs Wednesday with no rainfall
expected. Fire weather concerns continue to remain low with the
recent wetting rains.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

This past weekend`s rain has led to a few river rises. Two river
locations are currently in flood (Aucilla at Lamont and
Withlacoochee at Valdosta - Skipper Bridge). Expect these to
remain in flood for a few days. Our next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be Thursday, but the rainfall totals will be
insignificant. There is a strong system developing for this
weekend that is expected to bring more rain. The WPC has already
highlighted the western part of our CWA in a Marginal (level 1 of
4) risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday into Sunday. There
will be the potential for low-lying/urban flooding as well as
flash flooding with the heavy rainfall. Also, we could possibly
expect more river rises following this system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  46  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   71  53  72  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  44  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  42  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    75  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  53  70  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery