457
FXUS62 KTAE 172307
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
707 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

This morning`s stubborn stratus is gradually breaking apart which
should lead to some development of scattered showers and storms this
afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave approaches. A few stronger
storms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible this
afternoon. These will gradually fade during the evening. Late
tonight into Monday morning, some patchy fog will be possible,
mainly in the eastern Florida Big Bend up into the I-75 corridor of
south Georgia. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.

Today`s shortwave remains in our area on Monday which will aid in
the development of scattered showers and storms. However, drier air
along the northeast flow will begin filtering into the northern
parts of our area Monday afternoon. Thus, there`ll be a pretty stark
moisture gradient with PWATs around 1.6 to 1.7 inches to the north
to 2.1 inches in the southeast Big Bend. Additionally, with the
prevailing northeasterly flow, the sea breeze will likely be pinned
near the coast with some convergence with the Atlantic sea breeze
late in the afternoon in the eastern Big Bend. This is reflected in
our rain chances tomorrow. Our highest rain chances will be in the
southeast Big Bend at 60-70%, around 30-50% elsewhere in the
Panhandle and Big Bend, and 20-30% in south Georgia. The drier air
in southeast Alabama will keep rain chances less than 20%. Ample
DCAPE tomorrow afternoon will also help boost the gusty wind
potential in storms thanks to some mid-level dry air. Highs will be
in the low to mid-90s with heat index values of 100-107.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The shortwave moves south of our area and weakens Monday night and
Tuesday. Drier air continues to filter in from the northeast through
the day Tuesday with increasing subsidence being imparted by
Hurricane Erin. PWATs drop down to about 1.6 to 1.8 inches across
the area, and dew points may even fall into the upper 60s Tuesday
afternoon. Any isolated showers and storms that manage to develop
Tuesday will be generally along and south of I-10 thanks to the
pinned sea breeze, but rain chances there are only around 20-30%.
With the increased subsidence and drier air, this should allow
temperatures to heat up a bit more. Trended slightly higher with
highs Tuesday afternoon with widespread mid-90s with pockets of
upper 90s. There is a low chance (less than 20%) that some places
may reach the triple digits. This would happen if there is even
stronger subsidence and drier air than currently forecast. Heat
index values will also be not as oppressive, "only" topping out
in the upper 90s to near 100. Lows will remain in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Wednesday will be a transition day back toward a wetter pattern.
Winds will begin to turn more northwesterly as Hurricane Erin
continues moving northward over the western Atlantic. We`ll start to
see moisture increase again and the sea breeze make a little more
inland progress. Still, enough dry air and subsidence lingers around
Wednesday to keep rain chances generally around 20-30%, mainly in
the Florida counties. Highs will still be in the mid 90s with heat
index values of 100-105.

Moisture will increase more late in the week as a weak cold front
sags into the Southeast. This will bring us back to a near or
above average pattern for showers and storms thanks to the
combination of this nearby front and the daily sea breeze. As a
result of higher rain chances and more cloud cover, highs will
drop back down into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will stay in
the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the night. Around daybreak,
low cigs and vsbys are possible around the VLD terminal and could
spread to the TLH terminal leading to MVFR and possible IFR
conditions. VFR will return by mid-morning and should prevail for
the rest of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon
hours for ECP, TLH, and VLD terminals as noted in the PROB30
groups.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Light east to northeast winds will continue through Tuesday before
turning more westerly for the latter half of the week. Tranquil
boating conditions will continue through the forecast period with 1
foot seas expected. Scattered showers and storms are possible each
night and early morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low outside of some high dispersions in
the Florida and Georgia zones Tuesday and Wednesday. Transport winds
will remain out of the east to northeast around 10 mph through
Tuesday before becoming northwesterly to westerly on Wednesday.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Florida and Georgia
zones Monday, then becoming more sparse Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some patchy fog is possible tonight into Monday morning in the
eastern Florida Big Bend and along the I-75 corridor in Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
Monday afternoon. Some locally heavy rainfall may be possible,
especially in the Florida and far southern Georgia counties where
PWATs are at or above 2 inches. This could lead to high rainfall
rates, which may result in localized flooding of urban, low-lying,
or poor drainage areas, especially if storms move slowly. Drier air
arrives Tuesday and Wednesday before the next system moves in late
in the week. This will resume our locally heavy downpours threat
again. However, widespread flood concerns are not anticipated at
this time through the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  92  74  94 /  20  40  10  20
Panama City   76  93  77  93 /  20  50  20  30
Dothan        73  94  73  94 /  10  10   0  10
Albany        73  94  73  94 /  20  20   0  10
Valdosta      72  93  72  94 /  30  40   0  10
Cross City    73  92  73  95 /  40  70  20  30
Apalachicola  76  88  78  90 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young