669
FXUS62 KTAE 291928
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A very moist and seasonably unstable air mass is in place.
Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery shows values
ranging from 1.8 inches over south Georgia, to 2.1 inches along
the coast and over the Gulf waters.

Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows an elongated and narrow upper
trough axis along the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, adding some
extra lift to the very moist environment.

So the next 24 hours will be a near repeat of the past 24 hours,
meaning afternoon and evening convection will favor inland areas.
Late tonight and on Monday morning, convection will fire up along
the landbreeze over the bathwater-warm 85-87 degree Gulf waters,
with westerly steering flow taking that convection onto the
beaches and perhaps into coastal communities on Monday morning. If
steering flow can keep enough northerly component, then morning
convection would have a harder time moving onshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Wash, rinse, repeat for Monday night and Tuesday. Where morning
convection can move onshore from the Gulf, expect heavy rain.
Convection will develop inland from the coast over the course of
the daytime hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Late Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The nearly stationary upper trough axis will open up from Tuesday
night through Thursday morning, due to interaction with a mid-
latitude trough passing by to the north. Steering flow will
therefore strengthen and become more westerly, while cyclonic
flow through the open trough will aid lift. This will more
decidedly push bands or training lines of morning convection
onshore, especially for Gulf, Franklin, Dixie, and Taylor
Counties. Wednesday morning could bring heaviest rainfall totals
and the period of most hydrologically significant rain. See the
Hydrology section for more thoughts.

The mid-latitude trough will exit off the east coast of North
America on Friday. A remnant lower latitude low will get left
behind near Florida and then boxed in as a mid-level high moves
across the Ohio Valley next weekend. Most guidance shows weak or
broad surface low development somewhere between the northeast Gulf
and the coastal waters off the GA/SC coast. If a surface low
develops to our east, we could be on a dry west side. If the
blocking high to the north shoves a surface low westward along the
northern Gulf Coast, then we could find ourselves in a wet
conveyor belt of rain. So anything could happen in terms of
rainfall.

NHC has started outlooking this area (northeast Gulf to the
southeast U.S. Atlantic coast) with a low chance (20 percent) of
tropical development late this week or next weekend. Land
interaction will be a big inhibiting factor to tropical
development, and the vast majority of ensemble members show merely
a weak surface low. So significant local impacts look doubtful.
Nonetheless, check back this week for updates to development
potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail outside of any
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Brief
periods of MVFR to IFR conditions could be possible in and/or
around showers and storms. Tonight, prior to daybreak, patchy fog
could impact terminals that see rain this afternoon and evening.
MVFR cigs are likely to move over ABY/DHN tonight as a low-level
cloud deck slowly erodes. By late tomorrow morning, VFR conditions
are expect to prevail before another round of showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

The summertime subtropical ridge axis will remain in place across
South Florida and the Southeast Gulf through Tuesday. To its north,
the Northeast Gulf waters will experience gentle to moderate
southwest and westerly breezes. On Wednesday and Thursday, westerly
breezes will freshen a little, as a frontal boundary sags south
through Alabama and Georgia. Along the remnant front, a weak and
broad area of low pressure may cut off over the northeast Gulf or
North Florida on Friday or Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the
entire upcoming work week. Southwest to westerly breezes will
prevail, while weak low pressure aloft will keep abundant shower
and thunderstorm activity in the picture. Any storms are likely to
drop a wetting rain. Late night and morning rain near the coast
could drop particularly heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isolated to scattered flash flooding is likely through the middle
of this week. The greater concern will be south of I-10, though
flash flooding is possible north of I-10 as well. Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning could feature the most hydrologically
significant rainfall.

A weak but nearly stationary upper low will sit over the region
for much of the upcoming week. It will be able to tap into a very
moist air mass and set the stage for localized areas of heavy
rain. The weak upper low will favor slow-moving lines and bands
of heavy rain developing during the late night and morning hours
over the warm Gulf waters. Southwest and westerly steering flow
will then push the heavy rain onshore each morning. This setup
will repeat itself each morning through about Thursday, though the
strongest steering flow and heaviest rain should come on Wednesday
morning. Soils will become increasingly moist, and groundwater
levels will rise. The risk of flash flooding will increase each
day until the pattern changes late this week.

Coastal communities and areas south of I-10 will be at greatest
risk of flooding rain, though inland flash flooding is possible
too. South of I-10 through Friday morning, locations are most
likely to get multi-day rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches. A
couple of coastal communities could get in excess of 8 inches.
Double digit rainfall amounts cannot be ruled out, with CAMS
guidance showing the better odds of those high-end amounts from
coastal Gulf and Franklin Counties across Apalachee Bay to Dixie
County.

A Flood Watch may be needed sometime in the first half of this
week. The coastal focus of heavy rain will limit the river flood
potential.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  87  72  85 /  60 100  50 100
Panama City   75  85  74  86 /  70  90  80  90
Dothan        72  87  71  87 /  40  90  40  90
Albany        71  90  71  88 /  30  90  30  90
Valdosta      72  89  72  87 /  50  90  30  90
Cross City    71  85  71  86 /  70  90  60  90
Apalachicola  75  83  74  84 /  80  90  80  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner