380
FXUS62 KTAE 202341
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
741 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the next couple days.
  Highs will range from the low to middle 90s across inland areas.

- Rain chances continue through Monday. Afternoon thunderstorms
  this evening, and possibly again tomorrow, may have gusty winds
  and small hail, in addition to lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The main update to the forecast this evening was to increase POPs
across much of the area, especially across the Florida Panhandle,
for the next few hours.

A few clusters of showers and storms, a few strong to severe,
continue across portions of southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle. Some of these thunderstorms have had descending hail
cores that have produced very locally damaging winds across
portions of SE Alabama and do expect them to continue for a few
hours as this cluster of storms moves through the Florida
Panhandle. Elsewhere, a few showers and rumbles of thunder linger
for southwestern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, but these
should remain sub- severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The closed upper low over the eastern Gulf will continue spinning,
gradually moving west through the next day or so, providing the
region with enough forcing for ascent to produce unsettled weather.
On Tuesday, a shortwave moving across the Tennessee Valley will pull
this upper low northeast and away it goes, taking rain chances with
it. Increasingly drier northeast air begins to filter into the
region beginning on Wednesday and persisting through the weekend,
keeping rain chances near or below 10%.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s through
Wednesday, Thursday through Saturday highs will look to be in the
mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows follow a similar pattern with lows
generally in the low to mid 70s through Thursday morning, dropping
into the mid to upper 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Clusters of showers and storms are forecast to near KECP in the
next few hours, so have included TEMPO groups for TSRA to account
for that potential. Elsewhere, light to moderate rain and an
occasional lightning strike remains possible the next few hours
before most of the rain/storms wind down by 04Z/05Z or so. VFR
conditions are generally forecast to prevail through the night,
although a brief period of MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible at
KVLD, with a lesser chance at KTLH and KABY.

Hi-res guidance suggests the best opportunity for showers/storms
Monday afternoon to be near KVLD, KTLH, and KECP, so have included
PROB30s for those sites with this TAF issuance. Confidence wasn`t
quite high enough to include showers/storms for KABY and KDHN with
this TAF package, but it`s something we`ll monitor in future
packages.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Gentle to moderate east to northeast breezes expected through
midweek with high pressure generally north of the waters. Within the
seabreeze zone, moderate onshore flow will develop each afternoon
into the evening before switching offshore during the overnight
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through
midweek as well. A cold front is slated to move through the Gulf
waters later this week. Expect moderate to fresh northeast winds to
accompany the front towards next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

High pressure remains anchored to our north continuing northeast
transport winds into early this week. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will develop each afternoon into the evening hours with
the better coverage along and south of I-10 associated with the
seabreeze. Erratic and gusty winds, in addition to lightning, are
the main concerns. Afternoon minRHs will fall into the mid-40s to
mid-50s over the next few days. Heat indices the next few days will
be between 96-104F during the afternoon hours.
Low dispersions today will be located from I-75 south into the
Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected over the next week
from afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Isolated higher amounts
could be possible under any downpours. There are currently no
riverine flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  92  72  93 /  50  20  10  10
Panama City   75  91  74  91 /  60  30  10  20
Dothan        71  93  71  94 /  40  10  10  10
Albany        71  93  71  93 /  40  10  10  10
Valdosta      72  91  71  92 /  30  20  20  10
Cross City    72  90  72  90 /  30  50  10  50
Apalachicola  74  87  74  87 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver