085
FXUS62 KTAE 281407
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1007 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025
Light southwesterly flow and a relatively moist atmosphere will
lead to another active afternoon and evening for seabreeze
convection across the region. The morning marine convection will
likely begin to transition to inland convection over the next
several hours with daytime heating. The most favored areas appear
to be the Panhandle into the western Big Bend, with a gradual
transition into inland areas of SE Alabama and SW Georgia by late
in the afternoon and early evening. Overall light winds aloft and
marginal lapse rates should limit the severe threat, but slow
moving storms will have the potential to produce high rain rates
and localized flooding.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected again
today with plenty of moisture in place and an area of low pressure
overhead. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few
storms could be on the stronger side and produce gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. On the plus side, increased rain chances
will keep forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with max heat
indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. The moist airmass overhead
however will keep lows mostly in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A weak mid and upper level low will meander over the Southeast US
through early week before being absorbed by a larger trough swinging
through the eastern US mid week. At the surface, high pressure will
shift southward, bringing in moist southwesterly flow to our area.
In fact, PWATs will climb from 1.8 to 2.0 inches on Sunday to 2.0 to
2.2 inches by mid week. This will set the stage for a rather wet
week with some rounds of heavier rainfall possible. Each day,
numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected, starting on
the coast in the morning, then developing inland during the
afternoon and evening. With the increasingly moist atmosphere, it
will take stronger storms to produce strong wind gusts. But, we will
have to monitor any training bands of storms that develop over the
coming days that could produce a flash flood threat given likely
higher rainfall rates. The good news in all this is that highs will
likely be held back to the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 70s.

By the end of the week, some drier air will try to move in as
ridging builds to our west. But, still looking for at least a
typical summer day for the Independence Day holiday. Highs will
start to climb back into the 90s with heat index values in the
triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected across the
area today and may temporarily impact terminals at times.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

With high pressure to the south of our area, gentle to moderate west
to southwest breezes are expected for the next several days. Showers
and thunderstorms will remain likely through the period, mainly in
the overnight and morning hours, diminishing some during the day
except near the coast. Gusty winds, dangerous lightning, and
waterspouts will be possible in the stronger storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the
next several days with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal outside of gusty
and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with lightning and
pockets of heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The latest deterministic rainfall forecast has continued to trend
upward this cycle. Our most likely rainfall forecast over the next 7
days calls for 4 to 8 inches south of I-10 and about 1.5 to 4 inches
north of I-10. The heaviest totals will be closest to the coast.
However, the NBM probabilistic guidance suggests there is about a
10% chance of double digit rainfall in localized spots south of I-10
through the next 7 days.

Storms over the next several days will be efficient rain producers
given the very moist environment. That in combination with some
possibility of training bands of storms could result in several
inches of rain within a short period of time. This could lead to an
increasing flash flood potential through the week as we get multiple
rounds of rain, saturating the ground. With the heaviest rain near
the coast, this should mitigate any river flood concerns, however.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  73  91  73 /  70  30  90  50
Panama City   89  76  88  75 /  70  60  80  70
Dothan        91  71  90  72 /  70  20  80  30
Albany        91  71  92  72 /  50  20  60  30
Valdosta      93  72  92  72 /  50  20  80  40
Cross City    92  72  91  72 /  60  30  80  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76 /  70  50  80  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Young