299
FXUS62 KTAE 132336
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
735 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Some patchy fog is possible again Wednesday around sunrise, mainly
from the Suwanee Valley into the I-75 corridor of GA. A shortwave
swings through on Wednesday, but the low to mid-levels are fairly
dry and there is a weak capping inversion around 8k ft. As a result,
CAMs don`t generate much in the way of convection and SPC has the
General Thunder along our northern CWA border in Southwest GA. We
cannot rule out a shower or an isolated thunderstorm, which would be
forced by the shortwave/some enhanced convergence from a pseudo-
seabreeze, but the updrafts may become chocked off before sufficient
charge separation can take place for thunder. Lows in the 60s and
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Slightly lower dew points
due to turbulent mixing Wednesday afternoon will limit heat
indices.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Fairly benign conditions are expected throughout the extended
period as high pressure prevails. South to southwest flow through
early next week will allow temps to climb into the mid 90s with
apparent temps/heat indices pushing near or over 100 degrees.
Overnight low temps will also climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. On
Sunday, a sagging front to our north could lead to a low chance
for showers across SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

The mid-level air mass has dried enough to shut down convective
chances for the next 24 hour. In low-level southwest flow, there is
enough moisture for short-lived and localized threat of fog or low
clouds right around sunrise in the morning, espcially DHN and ABY.
Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon will be characterized by SCT coverage
of fair weather cumulus with fairly high bases at or above 5,000
feet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

High pressure centered southeast of the waters will continue a
prolonged period of southwest flow, which will be enhanced during
the daytime hours near the coast due to the seabreeze. Seas remain
elevated between 2 and 3 feet just offshore and especially near
the inlets during the outgoing tide, with more tranquil seas
possible by Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Mainly dry weather is expected over the next several days with
heat and humidity building by Friday. The main fire weather
concern will be high dispersions mainly north of I-10 on both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Some enhancement to the
southwest winds both afternoons mainly to the south of I-10.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

A few area rivers are expected to crest in Action Stage after this
past weekend`s rainfall. Flooding into Minor Flood stage is not
expected. As the area of low pressure that caused this weekend`s
rainfall departs the region, we`ll enter a period of dry
weather allowing area rivers to settle lower.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  89  68  91 /  10  10   0   0
Panama City   69  82  72  83 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        63  87  67  89 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        63  89  67  91 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      64  90  67  93 /  20  10   0   0
Cross City    64  86  65  87 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  81  71  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Oliver