198
FXUS62 KTAE 301932
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
332 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Above average temperatures are expected during the upcoming
  work week, with afternoon temperatures running 3-7 degrees above
  normal over inland areas. There is a low to medium chance of
  peak heat index values exceeding 107F on one or more afternoons,
  especially mid to late week.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  the week. The highest chances are expected be across the Florida
  Panhandle and Big Bend, with lower chances across Southeast
  Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

- There is a low chance (20 percent) that the remnants of Tropical
  Storm Dolly, currently near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,
  could redevelop by the middle of the week as the system reaches
  the Southeast Gulf. Check back in the days ahead for the latest
  on prospects for redevelopment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

We are now in deep easterly flow. High pressure at the surface and
aloft will continue strengthening to our north during the next 24
hours.

Meanwhile, satellite-derived PW imagery shows a NW-SE moisture
gradient across our region, ranging from 1.8 inches north of
Dothan to 2.2 inches SE of Tallahassee. This gradient will remain
in place on Monday. If anything, our northern counties north of
Dothan-Albany-Fitzgerald may dry slightly on Monday as drier air
over the inland Carolinas nudges in. Rain chances will closely
mirror the PW gradient, with low chances along the U.S. 82
corridor and high chances in the richer moisture further south
over Florida, especially in the seabreeze-lift favored locales.
Easterly flow sometimes favors an evening arrival of convection
over our Eastern Time Zone counties, due to late arrival of
Atlantic coast seabreeze activity.

Otherwise, have added patchy fog to the forecast around sunrise
Monday (and Tuesday too), generally east of U.S. 19. Easterly
flow is one of our most favorable for morning fog. As the nights
continue to lengthen, we start getting into a more favorable time
of year for sunrise fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A strong 500 mb heat wave high will build from TN/KY to the
Carolinas on Monday night and Tuesday, remaining in place through
about Friday. This will put our region close to the southern
periphery of the building heat wave and the region that will
experience well above normal temperatures. For our service area,
normal highs during the first week of September are around 90-91
degrees, so forecast highs of about 93-97 degrees over inland
areas late this week would be about 3-7 degrees above normal. When
combined with muggy dewpoints in the mid 70s, this poses a low to
medium chance of reaching our Heat Advisory criteria, which is a
heat index of 108+F. So we may be dealing with heat headlines
during the second half of this week, which would be uncommon in
September.

In easterly flow, the air mass will remain moist enough to support
PM convection each day. The higher chances will be over our
Florida counties due to richer moisture and seabreeze lift. The
lower chances will be north of Dothan-to-Albany, where moisture
will not be quite as rich, and closer to the suppressive effect
of the high to the north.

Folks with Labor Day weekend plans will want to keep an eye on the
progress of the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, which are
currently out near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The latest
Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC mentions that conditions may
become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week
as the system reaches the Southeast Gulf. The chance of
redevelopment is currently low... only around 20 percent. In
support of the low chance, global ensembles are currently lukewarm
on the idea, with only a limited number of members showing
development over the eastern Gulf. By next weekend, the strong
mid-level high to our north will retrograde west to the Great
Plains, and an upper trough may try digging down the U.S. Eastern
Seaboard. So this pattern progression would open the door to
recurvature while any redeveloped system is near Florida or the
eastern Gulf. Bottom line... this is just a low chance possibility
to check back on in the days ahead. It is also a reminder that we
have entered the peak of hurricane season, so it is a good time
to make sure you can find your hurricane plan after the locally
unimpactful 2025 season.

So the official forecast for next weekend simply starts to edge
off the heat wave next Sunday, with a slight broadening and
increase in PoPs. Tropics aside, it is very common to get an
increase in rain chances as a heat wave is breaking.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the afternoon with
isolated/scattered showers/storms possible this afternoon. Brief
MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible in any storm activity. For
tonight, easterly flow could bring low stratus to IFR/LIFR levels
across VLD, and possibly as far west as TLH/ABY around sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light to gentle easterly breezes will prevail through the week
ahead, in response to persistent high pressure to the north.
Nearshore seabreezes will interrup the easterly flow each
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

General easterly flow will prevail for much of the week ahead,
with daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Highest chances will be over our Florida and far
South Georgia districts. Above normal temperatures are expected,
with a seasonably moist and unstable air mass.

Otherwise, patchy fog is likely during the hours around sunrise
on Monday and Tuesday mornings, mainly along and east of the U.S.
19 corridor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. However, afternoon
and evening thunderstorms through this week may lead to short-
lived nuisance runoff issues beneath the core of heavier storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  93  74  93 /  30  40  30  40
Panama City   75  91  75  92 /  30  60  20  60
Dothan        73  93  73  94 /  20  20  10  20
Albany        73  93  73  94 /  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      72  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
Cross City    73  93  73  92 /  40  70  30  80
Apalachicola  77  87  77  88 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ108.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner