790
FXUS62 KTAE 100614
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
214 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cool and breezy post-frontal weather with hazardous beach &
   marine conditions this weekend. Check the local forecast before
   entering the water.

 - A warm and dry forecast next week maintains/worsens drought conditions
   while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use caution in
   any outdoor burning.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Overnight satellite and surface observations show a well-defined
shortwave trough rotating into the Tri-State area with an attendant
cold front draped across North-Central FL. A strong 1034-mb surface
high was also analyzed near Lake Erie. This pattern yields cloudy
skies, isolated showers & thunderstorms mainly east of the ACF
basin, and breezy ENE winds today into the evening hrs. The
combination of a cool/dry post-frontal airmass and cloud cover
yields widespread highs in the 70s this afternoon away from the
immediate coast. In fact, some locations in SW GA around the I-75
corridor may struggle to surpass 70 degrees if thick cloud cover
sticks around during peak heating. Low temperatures will be slower
to respond with readings mostly in the low 60s tonight into Saturday
morning.

Expect fair weather more akin to early autumn this weekend as
sunshine will be plentiful amidst comfortable humidities - highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s. However, a tight pressure gradient yields
breezy NE winds especially from mid-morning through the afternoon on
Saturday. Those visiting the beach should be cognizant of a moderate
to high risk of rip currents. Temperatures then quickly tumble after
sunset as cool-air advection looks to drive widespread lows in the
50s by Sunday morning! A building upper ridge from Northern Mexico
into the Ark-La-Tex region kickstarts a warming trend early next
week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Strong upper ridging in place over TX with an omega blocking pattern
across the CONUS yields warm & dry weather during for much of next
week. High temperatures surge back to the mid-upper 80s while lows
warm about a couple degrees each morning from upper 50s/low 60s on
Monday to more widespread 60s thereafter. Such conditions mean that
drought will persist and/or worsen areawide.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A stalled frontal boundary to our southeast, and a developing area
of low pressure across the FL Peninsula today is expected to lead to
widespread cloud cover across ABY/TLH/ECP as moisture attempts to
wrap around the low. A BKN to OVC cloud deck is expected across
these terminals through most of today leading generally to MVFR
cigs. At ECP and DHN winds out of the northeast may advect just
enough dry air to keep conditions VFR. Gusty NE winds are expected
as the pressure gradient tightens, gusts around 20-30 kts are
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

An ASCAT pass at 0320Z showed 20-23-kt NE winds over the nearshore
legs between Steinhatchee and Suwannee River immediately behind a
cold front.

CWF Synopsis: A tight pressure gradient following frontal passage
yields fresh to strong northeast breezes the next couple of days.
Advisory conditions continue into the weekend over the waters 0 to
60 nautical miles out with cautionary levels at Saint Andrews Bay.
Building high pressure early next week makes for more favorable
boating as gentle to moderate northerly breezes arrive.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Expect cloudy skies today with chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the FL Big Bend and South-Central GA as a cold
front gradually clears the region. Mixing heights look to stay below
3000 ft. Breezy northeast winds prevail.

Drier conditions arrive this weekend following frontal passage.
Brisk northeast winds continue during the daytime hours while
plentiful sunshine basically doubles mixing heights from Friday.
High dispersions are forecast over Apalachicola Nat`l Forest.

The airmass becomes even more dry on Sunday as RH bottoms out in the
30s for much of the Tri-State area. Winds turn more northerly,
albeit lighter thanks to high pressure building in. Elevated fire
concerns are likely next week when a warming trend takes shape with
little to no rainfall in sight.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Limited rainfall is forecast today mainly east of the ACF basin,
followed by mostly dry weather through much of next week. Such
conditions will maintain and/or worsen drought across the Tri-State
area. As of Thursday, extreme D3 drought was introduced to parts of
Southern GA with severe D2 drought covering most remaining
locations.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  62  79  60 /  30  10   0   0
Panama City   77  62  82  61 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        75  59  80  56 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        71  60  79  57 /  10  10   0  10
Valdosta      70  61  77  60 /  30  30  10  10
Cross City    76  64  79  62 /  20  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  63  80  63 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3