298
FXUS62 KTAE 221818
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
218 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

A very weak frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area
before stalling out later tonight. Dry and sunny conditions are
expected to prevail through tomorrow despite this feature, and the
only noticeable change will be temps a couple of degrees cooler
across SE AL and SW GA compared to FL. Above-average temperatures
are expected to prevail across the whole area, although TLH could
end up near or just under another record high temp Friday.
Thankfully, it`s dry enough that the heat index is forecast no
higher than the ambient temperature. Still, mid to upper 90s is hot
enough to cause heat illness with prolonged exposure or for
sensitive groups.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will keep a dry airmass in place
while at the surface west and seabreeze-induced southerly flow
prevail. With the dry airmass in place, rain chances are near zero
through the beginning of the weekend and the hot temperatures
from Friday afternoon will continue into Saturday with highs
likely in the mid 90s and heat indices around 100 in some of the
warmer locations. A stray shower can`t be ruled out given the
instability hot temperatures would provide, but if this occurs it
would likely be across the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama
where more favorable upper level ascent could move in ahead of a
weak 500mb shortwave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Hot temperatures likely continue into Sunday and Memorial Day as
the upper level ridge remains in control. Low-level moisture,
aided by daily intrusions of the seabreeze, will slowly climb
into early part of next week and this will allow isolated to
scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. As upper
level heights fall into the middle of the upcoming week, and deep-
layer moisture improves, expect more widespread shower and
thunderstorm chances from Tuesday through much of the upcoming
week. With increasing clouds and thunderstorm chances high
temperatures will drop back down into the upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Post-frontal NNW
winds are expected at most sites with southerly near the coast.
Light to calm winds expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Winds will be mostly light and variable through much of the
period. The main exception will be along nearshore waters out to
20 or 30 nautical miles where developing seabreezes each
afternoon will bring onshore flow around 10 knots, gusting to 15
knots, each afternoon. Most shower and storm chances should
remain overland but some storm activity could become more common
early next week in the morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Generally dry and warm conditions are expected for the next several
days in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. High dispersions are
expected each day, primarily across areas further inland due to very
high mixing heights. While afternoons are forecast to be dry,
moisture will very gradually increase over the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

No significant rainfall is forecast through the next 7 days.
Rainfall chances do increase after the upcoming weekend, but
amounts are not likely to cause issues at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  95  69  96 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   68  89  72  89 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        64  92  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        64  92  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      63  94  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  93  65  95 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  68  86  72  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs