233
FXUS62 KTAE 121851
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
251 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder continues for this
afternoon into the evening. The surface Low off the coast of
Louisiana will bring us bands of light to moderate showers moving
south to north. Shower/thunderstorm activity will be diminishing
this evening as the lifting/forcing from the Gulf Low moving west
and inland. High pressure from the Atlantic will be expanding
westward, reducing rain chances for overnight. PoPs overnight will
be low around 30% and less. Temperatures tonight will be in the
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A transition to a more typical summertime pattern will begin on
Thursday as the Gulf Low moves further inland to our west. An
upper level ridge extending from the Atlantic will reduce our rain
chances for mid-late week and heading into the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to increase as the ridge settles over
the region. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid 90s
with heat indices above 100. There is potential for heat
advisories to be required for Friday and Saturday as heat indices
may exceed 108 degrees. PoPs chances for the extended period will
be around 50-70% for the afternoon hours with the higher chances
in our Florida counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Showers and storms diminish in coverage through the afternoon
hours, then redevelop near the coast during the late night/early
morning hours on Wednesday and begin to spread inland. IFR/MVFR
conditions will accompany the stronger showers and storms.
Southerly winds 5-10 knots diminish by early this evening, then a
southerly flow at 5-10 knots develops again Wednesday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A surface trough in the Gulf is heading westward towards the
Louisiana Coast. This low pressure system will continue to bring
us scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms in the stronger
cells. Elevated seas of around 4 feet with gusty winds with storms
can be expected today. Seas are expected to calm down following
the passage of the low pressure system as high pressure settles
over the region by mid-late week. A more typical summertime
pattern returns with diurnal showers/thunderstorms in the
overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder are expected to
move inland today with a southerly wind. Some storms may produce
gusty and/or erratic winds. We transition to a more typical
summertime pattern on Wednesday with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Elevated dispersions appear likely for Thursday
afternoon with southwesterly transport winds around 10-15 mph.
With the recent rainfall, there are no other fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. This time period
will feature varying amounts of otherwise typical summer
thunderstorms. A quick inch or two of rain is possible beneath
stronger storms. This would cause short-lived nuisance flooding,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas. However, river
flooding and flash flooding are not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  92  76  93 /  10  60  10  60
Panama City   79  89  79  90 /  30  60  30  60
Dothan        74  90  73  91 /  10  70  20  60
Albany        74  92  74  91 /  10  70  20  60
Valdosta      74  94  75  94 /  10  50  10  50
Cross City    75  93  76  94 /  10  50  10  50
Apalachicola  80  90  80  91 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...MOB
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery