464
FXUS62 KTAE 051855
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
255 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms will continue until around
sunset this evening. The environment is similar to Wednesday with
weak mid-level winds and a lack of DCAPE. With PWAT near 2.0 inches,
the main concern will be torrential downpours, especially moving
northward into SE AL and Southwest GA where the ground becomes more
saturated. Cannot rule out minor urban and poor drainage flooding
with any storms given how moist the air mass is near I-10 corridor
and northward this evening. In particular, the HREF indicates a low
probability of flash flooding this evening, mainly north of I-10
into Southwest GA. Patchy fog will be possible again around sunrise
on Friday. Low to mid-level flow shifts from southerly to westerly
on Friday, with diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms propagating
northward along the seabreeze from late Friday morning into the
evening. PoPs were tweaked to align to this pattern, highest along
the I-10 corridor/FL Big Bend, and decreasing northward into SE AL
and Southwest GA. Slightly stronger mid-level winds and greater
DCAPE will make for an isolated damaging wind gust potential with
some storms. Heavy downpours may lead to urban and poor drainage
flooding closer to the I-10 corridor and the Forgotten Coast. A
high risk of rip currents continues on Friday at the Gulf beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the period
as a wet pattern remains overhead. Temperatures oscillate between the
upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon to the lower to middle 70s
each morning.

We`ll be on the periphery of an H5 ridge centered over southern
Texas through the weekend. A few shortwaves rolling over the
northern edge of the H5 high will skirt to our north, but be close
enough to keep elevated shower and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast Saturday and Sunday. An H5 trough diving out of Canada
Sunday night will be over the eastern third of the country much of
next week. Our area will be near the base of this trough, which,
again, keeps rain chances in our forecast through at least mid-
week as a cold front works its way south. However, seeing as we`re
solidly in June now, the front will likely stall near or north of
the region as the large scale H5 trough begins to lift out by
mid-week.

Deep tropical moisture, characterized by precipitable water values
(PWATS) around 1.7" to 2.0", will be over the region more often than
not the next several days. As a result, the primary hazard is
expected to be isolated heavy rainfall, particularly once we get
several days of heavy rain under our belt. While Flash Flood
guidance remains high, it is expected to gradually decrease as more
rain falls each day. While widespread severe weather isn`t
anticipated at this time, a few of the stronger storms could produce
locally damaging wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This aftn and eve will feature TSRA lifting northward w/highest
confidence of impacts at VLD where a TEMPO group was carried;
VCTS at the remainder of terminals should stay north of ECP,
although a quick amendment may be needed if TSRA venture closer.

Not a persistence forecast tonight as low-level flow shifts from
southerly to westerly, so may be tougher to get fog/low clouds,
and hi-res guidance illustrates this; highest confidence for
lowest MVFR restrictions was at TLH where IFR cannot be ruled
out around sunrise, w/brief MVFR possible elsewhere.

Cigs should tend to lift faster Fri morning with seabreeze
induced VCTS favored at TLH by early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will maintain a light to
moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze the next several days.
Seas will generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Aside from dispersions, fire weather concerns will be low through
the next few days due to high rain chances and relative humidities,
as well as light winds. There is the potential for high dispersions
Friday afternoon near the Suwanee. On Saturday, high dispersions are
increasingly likely in Southeast AL and Southwest GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through the
weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rain is possible within
any of those showers or storms thanks to precipitable water values
(PWATs) between 1.7" to 2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-
mid June. 3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to
3.5" in the more urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural
locations. These values are forecast to decrease the next few days
thanks to those daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see
the soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms.
Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with
gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the
region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  91  73  93 /  30  60  10  80
Panama City   76  89  77  89 /  10  40  20  60
Dothan        72  90  73  92 /  20  40  10  60
Albany        72  90  73  93 /  30  40  10  60
Valdosta      72  90  73  93 /  40  50  10  60
Cross City    72  90  72  91 /  20  40  10  60
Apalachicola  76  87  76  88 /  20  40  10  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Reese