823
FXUS62 KTAE 231438
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1038 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

...HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS
FAVORED MOST TODAY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Morning satellite and surface observations show widespread cloud
cover forced by a stationary frontal boundary draped roughly along
the I-10 corridor/FL state line and a mid-level shortwave near
Huntsville, AL. These features are making for scattered to
numerous offshore thunderstorms with isolated slow-moving showers
inland. Maritime convection should steadily wane over the next
couple hrs or so, thus paving the way for greater convective
development over land as cloud breaks occur and daytime
instability strengthens.

Heavy rainfall remains the primary concern given the very moist
airmass in place. The 12Z KJAX/KTBW soundings show Precipitable
Water values exceeding 2" with KFFC at 1.91". The weaker flow in
GA and lower Flash-Flood Guidance supports a comparatively greater
threat for flash flooding compared to FL, hence the delineation
in the Flood Watch despite both areas being in a Day 1 Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) Outlook by the WPC.

The main changes to today`s forecast were updating hourly PoPs
based on the latest trends - 12Z HRRR over the water and 13Z
CONSshort/NBMPPI01 blend over land. For wx grids, confidence was
high enough to add "heavy rain" wording in the point-in-click
forecast for locations along/east of the Apalachicola/Flint River
Valley from 19Z through the rest of this afternoon. Thunder was
also taken out away from the coast until 17Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The slow moving cold front will continue to sag through our AL and
GA counties. Another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall as PWATs remain above 2 inches. Training and
back building will be likely for developing storms that will
contribute to the risk for flooding. The WPC has highlighted areas
along and east of the Tift/Apalachicola rivers in a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall. Conditions today are very similar to yesterday,
explaining why the Slight risk was expanded to cover for the wider
extent of possible flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches
are expected with isolated heavier totals to near 7 inches. The
Flood Watch has been extended through tonight and expanded to
include Georgia counties south to the Florida state line. PoPs today
range from 60-80 percent, with the highest chances along the I-10/I-
75 corridors.

Due to the rain and cloud cover, temperatures this afternoon will be
cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight will be
in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The quasi-stationary front lingers across north Florida on Sunday,
continuing to provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The
overnight and early morning land breeze may initially nudge the
front offshore before it retreats onshore with the afternoon sea
breeze. Some slightly drier air filters into areas along and west of
the Flint River, where PWATs drop into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range,
but the deep moisture remains generally along the Forgotten Coast
into the eastern Big Bend with PWATs around 2 to 2.1 inches. Thus,
the highest rain chances (50-70%) will be along and south of I-10
Sunday with lower chances farther north and west (30-40%). Given the
high moisture content near the coast, there is still the lingering
threat of locally heavy rainfall, but the overall threat should be
lower than today and Friday. This is also supported by the fact that
the low-mid level flow will be less parallel to the front and
slightly stronger as compared to previous days. High temperatures
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low to mid
70s.

By Monday, troughing digs a bit more over the eastern US, which will
swing a cold front through the area by Tuesday morning. Prior to the
more significant cold front, our quasi-stationary front will sag a
bit further south, allowing slightly drier air to move in. In fact,
PWATs across our northern counties by Monday afternoon will be
around 1.2 to 1.4 inches, with PWATs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches across the
Florida counties. Rain chances will be reduced Monday afternoon with
near 0% chance for rain north and west of the Flint River to only 30-
40% south of I-10. This will allow temperatures to heat up a bit
more with highs in the lower half of the 90s. But, pleasant
temperatures are on the way with lows Monday night dropping into the
mid to upper 60s for most of the area, except lower 70s near the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For those looking for some drier, cooler air, it`s on the way. A
reprieve from summer arrives for mid week as the stronger cold front
exits our area Tuesday morning. Much drier air arrives in its wake.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 80s to near 90. Dew
points both afternoons will bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s
thanks to efficient mixing in the dry environment. Heat index values
as a result will be very close to the actual air temperatures. Rain
chances will be confined to Dixie County at only 20-30%, but even
that may be generous. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be in
the 60s for most places.

Moisture begins to increase again heading into the end of the week
as the cold front tries to retreat northward, bringing an increase
in rain chances back to the forecast. High temperatures will still
be in the mid to upper 80s though with lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Patchy dense fog is affecting the DHN terminal this morning with
patchy fog spread out affecting ABY and VLD terminals. IFR to LIFR
cigs are possible at the beginning of this TAF period for DHN,
ABY, and VLD. For our Florida terminals, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing. The thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue along the coastal regions through the rest of the
morning hours and move further inland this afternoon into the
evening. The fog this morning is expected to dissipate by mid-late
morning, making room for the showers and thunderstorms that will
move in, especially for ABY and VLD terminals. MVFR cigs are
expected for all terminals through this evening as widespread
showers and thunderstorms move through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Morning Observations:

PANAMA CITY TIDE STATION (8729108) - Sustained WNW near 3 kts.

PANAMA CITY BEACH TIDE STATION (8729210) - Sustained west winds 7
kts.

WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) - Sustained west winds near 14 kts, 3-ft
seas, and a dominant period of 5 seconds.

CWF Synopsis: Generally light to gentle westerly breezes will
continue through the weekend as a stationary front sits over the
land areas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
weekend, especially during the nighttime and morning hours. As a
stronger cold front moves through on Monday into Tuesday, winds
will clock around out of the northwest to northeast and become
moderate at times over the open Gulf waters. Cautionary-level
winds cannot be ruled out over the western waters by Tuesday and
Wednesday with seas building to 2 to 3 feet. Rain chances decrease
for mid-week over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
weekend. Poor dispersions are likely today for most area districts
due to cloud cover and rain-cooled air. The cold front is expected
to complete its passage by Monday, allowing drier air to move in
through next week. Expect drier conditions next week along with
potentially high dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The locally heavy rain threat continues this weekend as a quasi-
stationary boundary wavers over the area. Pockets of heavy rain fell
Friday afternoon and evening across parts of southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia primarily. Given the recent wet conditions, flash
flood guidance values have diminished to about 2 to 2.5 inches
within 1 hour or around 3 to 4 inches within 3 hours across the
Alabama and Georgia Counties. HREF probabilities of more than 3
inches of rainfall are highest along and east of the Flint River
today in south central Georgia (60-80%) with even some low to medium
chances of 5 inches or more. Thus, the Flood Watch was expanded to
include much of our south central Georgia Counties today. The heavy
rain threat on Sunday becomes more confined to the Florida counties,
but with higher flash flood guidance values, these areas are not as
vulnerable to flooding.

With the heavy rainfall over our Georgia counties the last couple
days, some of the rivers are beginning to rise. Namely, this is the
upper Ochlockonee River near Thomasville and the Withlacoochee River
above Valdosta. Both of these are forecast to rise into action
stage, but chances for minor flooding are very low. Farther north,
many of the Georgia rivers can take the extra rainfall and remain
below flood stage. However, some of the smaller creeks and streams
could reach bankfull should heavy rainfall fall over the smaller
basins.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  73  89  72 /  60  30  50  10
Panama City   88  75  90  76 /  60  40  50  20
Dothan        86  71  89  71 /  40  20  30  10
Albany        85  71  88  71 /  70  30  40  10
Valdosta      86  72  88  72 /  70  40  50  10
Cross City    88  74  89  74 /  70  50  70  30
Apalachicola  87  76  88  76 /  80  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ125>131-145>148-157>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Young/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Young