467
FXUS62 KTAE 062008
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

 - Unseasonable warmth and humidity on Tuesday and Wednesday with
   Heat Indices reaching the middle and upper 90s each afternoon.

 - Marine and Beach Hazards include a Small Craft Advisory from
   the Ochlockonee River to Mexico Beach tonight and a High Risk
   of Rip Currents for the Franklin, Gulf, and Walton County
   Beaches today and tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Moist easterly low-level flow continues today with PWATs around
1.8 inches, as well as modest forcing/instability for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cannot rule out a localized
thunderstorm wind gust of 30-40 mph. Mainly dry tonight w/patchy
fog expected to develop late mostly in Southwest GA. Fog should
dissipate around 9 AM ET Tuesday. Ridging begins to build in on
Tuesday with a drying trend as well as an unseasonably warm and
humid air mass. Highs around 90 and dew points around 70 will
yield Heat Indices in the middle to upper 90s. Meanwhile, a
high risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the
Franklin, Gulf, and Walton County Beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Ridging continues on Wednesday along with mainly dry weather
and an unseasonably warm and humid air mass. Highs around 90 and
dew points around 70 will yield Heat Indices in the middle to
upper 90s again. A cold front approaches on Thursday which will
introduce the next chance of showers and thunderstorms, although
once again meaningful rainfall is not expected. Nights will
also be on the warmer side with lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

In the wake of the cold front, a cooler and drier air mass
filters into the region from Friday into the weekend. Dry
weather is expected during this time frame. Highs cool into
the 70s on Friday and then gradually moderate into the 80s
this weekend. By the weekend, overnight lows will be in
the 50s, which represents the dry air mass that will be
in place. Gusty northeast winds will also return during
this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Low clouds and convection are the main aviation concerns this aftn
with the best chance for thunder at the FL terminals. Used the 12Z
hi-res guidance for timing via TEMPO groups. For late tonight into
early tmrw morning, attention turns to widespread MVFR or lower
stratus blanketing much of the area. Ceilings down to below 1000 ft
appear likely at ABY/VLD around sunrise in addition to even reduced
vsbys if winds can lighten up enough.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Strong easterly breezes and rough seas will return tonight with
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected from the Ochlockonee
River to Mexico Beach. Thereafter, more moderate easterly breezes
by into Thursday. In the wake of the next cold frontal passage,
advisory-level conditions may return by Thursday night and persist
into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Rain chances decreasing Tuesday and Wednesday. East to northeast
transport winds relax into the middle of the week while mixing
heights increase. Thus, good dispersions are generally expected over
the next few days. Fire weather concerns are low for the next few
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Drought continues and no flash/riverine flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  70  89  69 /  50  10  10   0
Panama City   87  71  89  72 /  50  30  10   0
Dothan        86  68  88  69 /  40  10  10   0
Albany        87  68  88  68 /  40  10  10   0
Valdosta      86  70  89  67 /  50  10  20   0
Cross City    87  71  90  69 /  50  20  30   0
Apalachicola  84  73  85  73 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF