483
FXUS62 KTAE 050913
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail through this
weekend, keeping the weather warm and settled, with a daily rhythm
of nighttime and morning fog and low clouds. Early next week, a
cold front will make slow progress past the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley regions. Proximity to the slow-moving front will
start to increase chances for showers or perhaps a few
thunderstorms as we move out through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Fog. Clouds. Sun. Warm. Clouds. Fog.

That about sums up the forecast over the next 24 hours. Patchy to
areas of dense fog are ongoing early this morning with a Dense Fog
Advisory in effect across our Alabama and Florida counties. Fog has
also formed in southwestern Georgia, but the coverage area and how
dense it is remains above criteria right now. We`ll continue to
monitor trends in case the Dense Fog Advisory needs to be expanded
later this morning.

Any fog this morning will slowly lift and dissipate throughout the
morning. The timing of it is forecast to be an hour or two slower
than Tuesday thanks to some higher clouds passing overhead limiting
the boundary layer mixing potential. Still, we should break out into
a fair amount of sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast
to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, or a solid 10 to 15
degrees above normal for early February.

Another round of low stratus/fog is expected again tonight as we`re
firmly in the middle of "fog" season. Any lingering high clouds this
afternoon should be bugging out to the east pretty quickly, leading
to mainly clear skies tonight. Combine this with ample low-level
moisture and calm winds and fog should form once again. Most
guidance suggests the fog over the coastal waters surging northward
later tonight into early Thursday morning. There remains some
uncertainty with how far north it is able to progress. Still, if the
past few mornings are any indication, the fog should be more
prevalent than modeled, so have included areas of fog for the entire
forecast area tonight with widespread fog confined to our Florida
counties for now. Temperatures will only manage the middle to upper
50s, or 10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday night)
Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

A strong 500 mb high sitting over Cuba through this weekend will
continue to hold the strong, consolidated mid-latitude jet stream
well to our north, generally over and north of the Ohio Valley. We
will have high upper heights and warm air aloft. A small surface
high pressure center will remain anchored over the far northeast
Gulf, forming a lobe at the western end of an Atlantic ridge
axis. With high pressure at the surface and aloft, the ensuing
subsidence inversions will keep the air mass stable, while
trapping low- level moisture in place.

During the nighttime and morning hours, this will result in low
clouds and fog. Once the low stratus burns off late each
morning, then afternoon sunshine will boost temperatures well
above normal, especially beyond the reach of the cooling seabreeze
over inland areas.

Friday will feature low rain chances, mainly along and north of a
Marianna-Albany line. The very tail end of a low pressure system
moving up the Ohio Valley could support a few weak showers, but no
frontal passage is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

During the first half of next week, the 500 mb high over Cuba will
retreat southward and eastward a bit. The consolidated mid-
latitude westerlies will slowly waver southward toward the
Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley. A sharp cold front will make
slowly progress southward past the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley
regions. South of this feature, increasing southerly flow off the
Gulf will further moisten the air mass, while proximity to the
front and perturbations in the jet stream will bring an increasing
chance of showers. Enough weak convective instability could
develop for some isolated thunder on Tuesday, especially if the
front can get far enough south through Alabama and Georgia.

Some cooling is forecast on Tuesday. The front is most likely to
stay to our north through at Tuesday, but the increase in clouds,
wind, and some cooling aloft will limit the high-end potential of
afternoon temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

The biggest challenge tonight will be how prevalent the fog is
over the aerodromes. IFR visibility is expected across most TAF
sites at some point overnight, but the timing and duration remain
rather uncertain. As a result, expect amendments throughout the
night at all TAF sites.

Conditions improve by mid-morning with VFR conditions expected at
all TAF sites this afternoon into this evening. Another round of
fog is expected tonight, with most of it happening just beyond
this TAF period, except for KECP, which could see it begin near
the end of it.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

A surface high pressure center will sit over the far northeast
Gulf through Sunday. Light to gentle breezes will prevail, with
southerlies over the waters west of Apalachicola. Areas of fog
will be a marine hazard through this weekend, especially over the
cooler nearshore waters, owing to the moist stable air mass and
the light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Areas of dense fog are the biggest concerns through the rest of the
work week. Low dispersions are forecast again today across most of
the area thanks to surface high pressure centered over the region.
Dispersions improve to end the week thanks to transport winds
increasing out of the southwest. Relative humidity levels will
generally remain above critical levels with light and variable
winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 413 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

No flooding is expected through at least Tuesday of next week.

Beyond next Tuesday, the Climate Prediction Center Hazard Outlook
has a Slight Risk of heavy rain from Feb. 12-15, mainly over our
Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  56  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   74  59  72  61 /   0  10  10  10
Dothan        78  59  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
Albany        79  58  79  59 /  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      80  56  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  53  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  57  68  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ730-755-
     765-775.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ750-752.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Haner