529
FXUS62 KTAE 061935
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
335 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms will continue until around
sunset this evening. There is more DCAPE compared to yesterday, so
gusty winds will be possible. Axis of PWAT around 2.0 inches near
the I-10 corridor, where torrential downpours may lead to minor
urban and poor drainage, with a low probability of flash flooding.
Patchy fog will be possible again around sunrise on Saturday. Expect
a repeat on Saturday, but with stronger mid-level winds north of
I-10, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather
during the afternoon and evening. The main threats are isolated
damaging wind gusts, in addition to frequently lightning and
heavy downpours. A high risk of rip currents continues on Saturday
at the Emerald Coast beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Another round of showers and storms is expected Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Temperatures are forecast to be very summer-like
with lows in the lower to middle 70s both Saturday and Sunday nights
and highs in the lower 90s Sunday afternoon. A few of the storms on
Sunday could be on the strong to severe side with locally damaging
wind gusts the greatest concern. Also, elevated precipitable water
values (PWATs) of 1.7" to 2.0" remains localized flooding concerns
stick around through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Yet another round of showers and thunderstorm is anticipated Monday
into Monday night as the storm tracks shifts south into our region.
This will lead to the potential for additional strong to severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a vigorous H5
shortwave rolls along the northern Gulf coast. Deep layer shear of
around 30 knots means there is the potential for the cluster of
showers and storms to make it into our region and beyond.

Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week thanks to an H5
trough over the eastern third of the country keeping us in a
continued muggy environment. PWATs are forecast to remain in the
1.7" to 2.0" range, or the upper quartile for mid-June. Have elected
to keep scattered to numerous showers and storms in the forecast
throughout the extended period.

Summer-like temperatures continue with highs in the lower to middle
90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Diurnally driven TSRA with highest confidence at TLH and invof
ECP/VLD will diminish around 00Z. Guidance has been biased low
recently regarding fog/low cloud restrictions around sunrise
due to the anomalously moist pattern in place. Strongest signal
around sunrise Saturday for IFR is at TLH and VLD with a period
of MVFR cigs elsewhere into the late morning/early aftn before
lifting to VFR. The pattern is favorable for VCTS again near TLH
late in the TAF period around Noon Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A surface high sprawling across the southwestern Atlantic and
eastern Gulf will continue to bring light to moderate southwesterly
winds to our waters through the weekend. Seas will generally run
between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast through the weekend along with the potential
for a morning waterspout or two just off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A wet pattern remains in place with relatively high minimum
afternoon humidities and light winds. Only concerns through the next
few days will be dispersions on the higher side and gusty/erratic
winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Locally heavy rain remains possible within any of the showers or
storms thanks to precipitable water values (PWATs) between 1.7" to
2.0", or near the 90th percentile for early-mid June. 3hr Flash
Flood Guidance (FFG) remains between 2.5" to 3.5" in the more
urban areas and 3" to 5.5" in our more rural locations. These
values are forecast to gradually decrease the next few days thanks
to daily rain chances. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas are the biggest concern, especially as we see the
soil continue to moisten with each round of showers and storms.
Fortunately, area rivers and streams remain in good shape with
gradual rises possible as more and more rain falls across the
region.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  92  75  92 /  20  60  10  70
Panama City   77  89  78  88 /  20  40  20  60
Dothan        74  93  75  92 /  30  50  20  80
Albany        73  93  75  92 /  30  50  20  80
Valdosta      73  93  75  92 /  20  40  20  70
Cross City    72  91  73  89 /  10  30  10  60
Apalachicola  77  87  78  86 /  20  30  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Reese