834
FXUS62 KTAE 200516
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
116 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A strong 500 mb high is centered directly over the forecast area
this afternoon, with 500 mb heights near an impressively high 5920
meters. The mid-level high will slowly move east over the next 24
hours, emerging off the coast of JAX late Sunday. This feature
will keep a strong mid-level cap or lid on the atmosphere, readily
preventing any convection. It will also keep temperatures well
above normal.

Southeast to southerly breezes will continue to reinforce a
slightly muggy air mass, with dewpoints running in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The strong 500 mb high center east of JAX on Sunday night will
gradually weaken and retreat southeastward toward the Bahamas
through Wednesday. This will open the door for weak southwest flow
aloft to develop, and a weakening surface cold front will enter
northwest Alabama on Monday night and get into central Alabama on
Tuesday, before dissipating around Tuesday night. Proximity of
this feature will support 15-25 percent rain chances over
southeast Alabama on Tuesday PM. Overall, recent guidance runs
have been trending downward and drier with rain chances Tuesday,
and we have now eliminated rain chances on Monday.

Starting Wed night, a 500 mb ridge axis will start to rebuild from
the Southwest Gulf to the coastal Carolinas. Flow aloft will
weaken, and 500 mb heights will rise modestly. Surface high
pressure will strengthen between New England and Bermuda on
Thursday, bringing a renewed surge of easterlies or
southeasterlies around Thursday night. All things considered, this
will support a continuation or a reinvigoration of above normal
temperatures, while keeping the atmosphere capped and rain-free.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period with a BKN to OVC cloud deck above 20k ft. Light
southeasterly winds this morning increase and turn more southerly as
the day progresses. There are some signals for fog near KECP and
KDHN near the very end of the TAF period, but kept lower visibility
out of this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A strong high pressure ridge stretching from Bermuda to the
coastal Carolinas will keep moderate to perhaps fresh southeast
breezes over the waters through Tuesday morning. The high pressure
ridge axis will push south closer to the waters on Tuesday and
Wednesday, as a weakening cold front dissipates over the Southeast
States. High pressure will strengthen off the Northeast U.S. coast
around Thursday, bringing a restrengthening of east or southeast
breezes over the northeast Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Much above normal temperatures will continue for the next 7 days.
No wetting rain is expected either, so that we will be nearing 3
weeks with no rain by the time we reach the last weekend of April.
Strong upper level high pressure will remain parked near region
through Monday night, then it will start to weaken and retreat
southward on Tuesday. Otherwise, gentle or moderate southeast to
south breezes will prevail through Monday, before weakening a
little on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

No flooding is expected through the at least the last weekend of
April.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   61  84  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   64  81  65  81 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        61  87  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        62  87  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      64  88  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  66  78  65  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner