325
FXUS62 KTAE 170747
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
347 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

An MCS rolling across northern Mississippi and Alabama this
morning will try to move southeastward through the morning, likely
sending out an outflow boundary. This is in association with a
shortwave riding along the northern side of our ridge. The outflow
boundary that is left over across central Alabama and central
Georgia this afternoon will provide a focus for isolated to
scattered showers and storms to redevelop through the early
evening hours. Given the presence of 35-40 kt of deep layer shear
(unidirectional), ample instability, and mid-level dry air
contributing to >1000 J/kg of DCAPE, some of these storms this
afternoon and early evening could be strong to severe with strong
wind gusts being the primary threat. The Storm Prediction Center
has outlined areas along and north of a Abbeville to Tifton line
in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5).

Otherwise, it`s going to be another hot day across the area. Highs
in most places will be in the mid 90s with some upper 90s
possible. Closer to the coast, highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Please use caution if outdoors today, especially those
who are more sensitive to heat stress. Stay well hydrated, wear
light clothing, and stay indoors or in the shade as much as
possible. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s for most. Some
patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Note that TLH`s record high for today is 95, set in 1933. The
current deterministic forecast calls for 97. The NBM gives about a
60-70% chance of exceeding 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

The ridge flattens more with another shortwave riding along the
northern periphery. This will bring another complex of showers and
storms to parts of central Georgia with our Georgia counties being
on the southern edge of the storm potential. The storm threat is
pretty similar to today`s, though mainly focused over southern
Georgia. The environment is also pretty similar with ample shear
and instability as well as some mid-level dry air. Thus, the Storm
Prediction Center has outlined areas from Fort Gaines to Tifton
northward in a Marginal Risk of severe weather again for Sunday
afternoon for the threat of strong, damaging wind gusts. Those
that don`t see the rain will once again reach the mid-90s with
upper 80s to near 90 near the coast. Lows will be in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

The ridge builds back in again on Monday, so our rain chances go
down, and our temperatures come back up. More widespread mid to
perhaps upper 90s are expected Monday afternoon with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

The ridge begins to shift eastward Tuesday as troughing begins to
dig across the eastern US for the latter half of the week. The
heat will still be in play Tuesday with one more day in the
mid-90s before a cold front approaches Wednesday. As the front
arrives, scattered showers and storms will develop along the
front. The environment will yet again be supportive of a few
strong to maybe severe storms given ample shear, plentiful
instability, and mid-level dry air increasing the DCAPE in
forecast soundings. Thus, we`ll have to watch for a strong wind
gust or two in the storms Wednesday. The front clears the area by
Thursday with drier and cooler air in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop around DHN, ECP, and TLH
with MVFR to IFR cigs being reported at surrounding sites.
Generally expect stratus to spread across the area through the
night with mainly MVFR cigs. The stratus will dissipate around
14-15z with VFR conditions thereafter. Isolated TSRA will try to
sink southward toward DHN and ABY late this afternoon into the
evening, and have included PROB30 groups for these terminals.
Generally SW winds around 7-10 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt possible
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern
Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for
the next several days. Seas will be around 1 to 2 feet each day
with no significant marine impacts anticipated through Tuesday. By
mid- week, west to southwest winds will increase to near
cautionary levels ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Southwesterly transport winds around 15 mph and mixing heights
increasing to 5,000-6,000 feet each afternoon will result in high
dispersions across inland areas with good dispersions near the
coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible across the AL
and GA zones this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon, mainly
north of a Dothan to Fitzgerald line. Gusty erratic winds and
dangerous lightning will be the primary threats with stronger
storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Outside of locally heavy downpours from storms, significant
rainfall is not anticipated. Thus, there are no widespread flood
concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  71  95  70 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   85  73  85  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        93  71  92  69 /  30  10  20   0
Albany        94  72  94  71 /  20  10  30   0
Valdosta      96  71  96  70 /   0   0  20   0
Cross City    90  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  72  84  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young