741
FXUS62 KTAE 181858
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
258 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A 500 mb high will sit directly over our service area during the
next 24 hours, with 500 mb heights of 5900-5920 meters. Such
strong high pressure aloft will maintain large-scale subsidence
and a very dry air mass above the surface-based mixed layer. The
warm and dry air aloft will act as a strong cap and eliminate any
chance of convection.

Meanwhile, low-level southeast flow is increasing moisture in the
boundary layer. Most CAMS guidance is pointing to fog late
tonight along and west of U.S. Hwy 231, where surface dewpoints
are in the 65- 70F range along Emerald Coast beaches.

Otherwise, strong high pressure aloft is a favorable pattern for
hot afternoon temperatures. Hottest temperatures near 90F will be
along the I-75 corridor, where the SE-S surface wind will have a
fetch straight up the hot land mass of the FL Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A strong upper level high pressure will be holding firm over the
region at the start of the term. This will keep our temperatures
warm and southerly flow will keep our dew points in the upper 50s
and 60s. Patchy fog may develop during midweek mornings as there
will be ample moisture available, along with light winds.

Through the extended period, precip chances are low as all
developing and passing shortwaves are forecast to remain well
north of the region in the coming days. On Tuesday, an upper level
shortwave over the Great Lakes region will have an accompanying
cold front that could reach our northern tier of Alabama and
Georgia counties. This would allow for our best chance (albeit low
chance) for rain during this period with PoPs around 20-40
percent. The anticipated front is expected to stall before it can
get any further through our region.

Temperatures for the next week will be warm in the upper 80s with
a few locations reaching the low 90s. Along the immediate coast,
temps should hold in the mid-80s as the seabreeze should deter
further warming. Overnight lows will be mild in the low to
mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

The air mass is dry, and we will struggle this afternoon and get
anything more than scattered pancake-flat high-based fair weather
cumulus. The main story will be with fog and low cloud potential
developing near ECP and DHN late tonight, as southerly flow bring
a moister air mass in from the Gulf. Starting 1-2 hours after
sunrise on Saturday, low-level stratus and stratocumulus will
gradually lift into a SCT layer of fair weather cumulus by late
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

High pressure between the Southeast U.S. and Bermuda will support
prevailing moderate southeast breezes through Monday, with seas
around 3-5 feet and breezes becoming fresh during the late night
and morning surges. A dissipating cold front will stall out north
of the waters on Tuesday, bringing an overall decrease in
southeast breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Strong high pressure aloft on Saturday will keep afternoon
temperatures well above normal, and southeast surface winds will
continue to increase mugginess. A dying cold front will reach
northern Alabama on Monday or Monday night, bringing a low chance
of thunder to Alabama and Georgia districts on Monday and Tuesday,
before the front dissipates completely. The large majority of
districts will go through the next 7 days with no wetting rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

There are chances for a shower or thunderstorm to squeeze out
some measurable rainfall next week yet, the impacts will be
minimal enough to not cause any flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  85  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  81  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        60  88  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    59  89  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  76  66  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery