731
FXUS62 KTAE 170500
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
100 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For today, the 1000-700 mb flow will be northeasterly, which will
tend to pin the seabreeze closer to the coast and lead to the
highest chances for rain and thunderstorms across our Florida big
bend counties with lesser chances farther north. The PoP gradient
this afternoon will range from near 80 percent across Dixie county
to just 20-30 percent across southeast Alabama. Precipitable water
values will still be over 2 inches across the Florida big bend, so
some pockets of heavy rain will still be possible there. High
temperatures will generally be in the lower 90s with heat indices
mainly in the 101-106F range.

For tonight, convection will taper off after sunset with overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Northeast 850 hPa flow suppresses diurnal shower and thunderstorm
chances mainly to the I-10 corridor and southward associated with
the Gulf seabreeze and where ensembles point to greater chances of
above average PWAT (i.e., higher than ~1.9"). A lesser chance near
the I-75 corridor of GA into the Suwanee River Valley IF the east
coast seabreeze can make inroads into the area, as subsidence well
west of Hurricane Erin, which will increasingly move north of due
west between the Bahamas and Bermuda, will tend to supress activity
north of I-10. Temperatures will be near average for a change early
next week w/opportunities for lower dew points during peak heating
hours via turbulent mixing, so advisory-level heat is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

As Hurricane Erin moves north and eventually northeastward between
offshore the US east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday,
850 hPa flow becomes northerly, with PWATs returning to near seasonal
levels (i.e., ~1.9") as subsidence decreases. Highest PoPs will tend
to be in the seabreeze zone along/south of I-10 into Southeast AL. A
mid-level trough and surface front approach from the northwest by
Friday and Saturday, as meridional flow increases PWATs further,
with ensembles indicating up to a 50% chance of reaching the 90th
percentile (i.e., ~2.15"). As such, PoPs return to AOA average, with
heavy rainfall possible by Saturday - See the Hydrology section at
the bottom for further details. Temps remain near average during mid
to late week, but dew points become more tropical by Thursday when
there is a 40% chance of reaching heat advisory criteria (Apparent
temperature AOA 108F).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of brief early
morning patchy fog and afternoon thunderstorms. The best chance at
seeing brief MVFR fog this morning is at VLD. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be scattered across the region with
the highest coverage near ECP, TLH, and VLD with tempo restrictions
to IFR near storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Gentle easterly breezes are expected through Tuesday. As Hurricane
Erin recurves between offshore the US east coast and Bermuda by
midweek, winds clock around to the northwest, but remain gentle.
Given small pressure gradient, a seabreeze develops each afternoon
and evening near the coast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
be greatest today and Monday with a low potential for waterspouts
mainly during the morning hours. Briefly higher winds and seas in
the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low today with the exception of some
high dispersions this afternoon across portions of the inland
Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama. High dispersions are
possible again on Monday afternoon across the inland Florida
panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia zones as mixing
heights increase. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected each afternoon through Monday, which may bring gusty
winds and frequent lightning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1254 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Pockets of 2-4" 24-hour rainfall (radar estimated) ending at 10 PM
ET Saturday occurred in the lower I-75 corridor of GA and from Leon/
Jefferson County eastward to the Suwanee Valley in the FL Big Bend.
On Sunday, anomalously high moisture (~50% chance of PWATS AOA the
90th percentile of ~2.15") will shift southward generally Southeast
of US-319 in GA and east of SR-75 in FL to the Suwanee Valley. With
another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
locally excessive rainfall is possible. While the main flooding
concern is poor drainage, cannot rule out isolated flash flooding,
especially if the higher rainfall rates setup over the lower I-75
corridor of Southwest GA and/or in the US-221 corridor of FL.

Precip chances trend below average for Tuesday and Wednesday, then
return to average by Friday. In particular, chances for anomalously
high moisture increase on Friday into Saturday, as a surface front
approaches the region. Cannot rule out some heavy rainfall leading
to at least poor drainage flooding concerns on Saturday, but the
bar for flash flooding will be high given drier antecedent conditions
over the previous several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  74  92  74 /  70  20  40   0
Panama City   92  75  91  77 /  60  30  50  10
Dothan        91  73  92  73 /  50   0  20   0
Albany        91  73  93  73 /  50   0  10   0
Valdosta      91  73  93  72 /  60  10  20   0
Cross City    91  74  93  72 /  70  30  60  10
Apalachicola  88  77  88  77 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LF