


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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609 FXUS62 KTAE 121034 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 634 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 An H5 ridge across the southern Gulf expands across the eastern Gulf later today. This should lead to fewer showers and storms later this afternoon into tonight compared to Friday. Either way, we`ll maintain the mention of isolated to scattered showers and storms today. The 1000-700mb mean flow is generally out of the west today and should favor shower/storm development along the seabreeze over the eastern Florida Panhandle into the Florida Big Bend. The seabreeze pushing north combined with any outflow from thunderstorms should lead to a few showers and storms across our Alabama and Georgia counties later this afternoon into the evening. Most showers and storms should be winding down by 10-11pm EDT. Temperatures climb back into the middle 90s across most of the area with a 592-593dm H5 ridge nearby; one or two locations may flirt with Head Advisory levels (heat indices at or above 108 degrees), but held off on issuing one as confidence and areal coverage wasn`t high enough at this time. Lows tonight will only fall into the middle to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A hot summer pattern will be in place through Monday with upper level ridging and light flow aloft. The main concern will be heat index values and the possibly of heat advisories. With light northerly flow on both Sunday and Monday, the seabreeze will likely be suppressed, and temperatures will soar well into the mid to upper 90s for most inland areas with a late start to scattered afternoon convection. Dewpoints will mix out somewhat and keep heat index values somewhat tempered compared to what they could be. However, we still think peak heat index values will hit 108F across at least portions of the southern half of the area, which would necessitate heat advisories. A similar situation is expected on Monday with heat index values a couple of degrees hotter. The best chance of seeing convection will be across the Florida panhandle and big bend along the suppressed seabreeze. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 By the middle of the week, ridging is expected to break down a bit with an inverted trough extending south of the area into the Gulf. This will keep moisture plentiful across the area with the potential for increasing rain chances. With the increased cloud cover and rain chances towards the end of the week, high temperatures are expected to cool somewhat back into the 88-92 range for most areas. However, overnight lows will remain muggy well into the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period with a light to moderate westerly to northwesterly breeze. Showers and storms are forecast to develop along the seabreeze later this morning into the afternoon before pushing north into Alabama and Georgia. Most showers and storms should be winding down by sunset, or 01Z or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist each day with increasing chances later in the week. Seas will average around 1-2 feet and winds will generally be 5-10 kts, but strong and erratic gusts can be expected in and around thunderstorms. We are also in an environment where waterspouts will be possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Fire weather concerns remain low the next several days. Fair to good dispersions are anticipated across most districts through the weekend with high dispersions expected across most of our Georgia districts Sunday as slightly drier air filters in from the north. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Over the next several days, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected with the highest concentration along the seabreeze and other leftover mesoscale boundaries. Some storms will produce localized heavy rain that could lead to isolated flash flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. Riverine flooding is not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 95 77 / 60 20 70 10 Panama City 92 79 93 79 / 50 10 50 20 Dothan 95 74 95 75 / 40 10 40 10 Albany 95 75 96 76 / 30 10 30 10 Valdosta 97 75 96 78 / 50 20 50 20 Cross City 93 75 94 76 / 40 20 70 30 Apalachicola 90 78 90 79 / 40 20 60 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...DVD