583
FXUS62 KTAE 161438
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1038 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions persist through at least Saturday with
   worsening drought and elevated fire concerns. Use caution if
   burning outdoors.

 - A weakening frontal system brings a slight chance of showers and
   thunderstorms Sunday-Sunday night, but rain amounts are
   expected to be light. Overall rain coverage has decreased with
   this forecast cycle.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The update consisted of lowering dewpoints a few degrees over
inland areas this afternoon. This brings the dewpoint forecast
more in line with MOS guidance and persistence from recent days,
given no substantial change in the air mass. This has the effect
of also lowering relative humidity this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A strong upper ridge shifting further into the MS Valley from the
west fosters very warm & dry conditions today. This morning starts
off with some patchy fog mainly around the I-75 corridor. Daytime
temperatures then peak to the mid-upper 80s under a prevailing NE
wind thanks to surface high pressure anchored across the Midwest.
Expect an afternoon seabreeze to develop, then march towards I-10.
For tonight, somewhat light winds and clear skies promote modest
radiational cooling, so look for temperatures to bottom out in the
upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Ridging weakens and flattens out in response to a broad northern
stream trough moving through the Northern Plains-Great Lakes region.
The latter sends a cold front down that will initially serve as
focus for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms across Appalachia.
However, as the frontal boundary pushes into the Deep South,
fleeting upper-level support looks to weaken convection, especially
with eastward extent. The latest model guidance shows a
slower/diminishing convective trend, so max PoPs have decreased to
slight chance with this forecast cycle for Sunday-Sunday night. The
best potential is in our Central Timezone Counties. Forecast amounts
have also dropped off considerably, which is deflating when it comes
to drought relief.

East to SE winds develop ahead of the front, then turn northerly
following FroPa late Sunday or early Monday. There are some
indications that the frontal boundary may stall just to our south as
the flow aloft becomes zonal, so lingering showers over parts of the
Tri-State area are a possibility. A ridge of high pressure
temporarily builds overhead early next week with a slight cooldown
amidst continued dry weather. Another shot of rain is on the table
near the end or just beyond this forecast period, but prospects
don`t look particularly great given meager moisture return.

Forecast high temperatures are in the 80s with lows in the 50s & 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

An ASCAT pass at 0208Z showed light winds below 10 kts west of
Apalachicola and easterlies over Apalachee Bay generally less than
15 kts.

CWF Synopsis: Gentle to moderate northeast breezes prevail today
before turning east to southeasterly heading into the weekend ahead
of an approaching cold front. A nocturnal easterly surge is expected
across Apalachee Bay tonight, such that small craft may need to
exercise caution. Chances for showers return to the forecast, mainly
across the Panhandle waters on Sunday. Meanwhile, winds turn more
southerly during frontal passage, followed by quickly clocking
around from southwesterly to easterly on Monday as surface high
pressure builds in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Continued warm and dry conditions will make for elevated fire
concerns through the first half of this weekend mainly because of
very dry fuels. Prevailing NE winds today turn easterly on Friday,
then southeasterly ahead of an approaching frontal system by
Saturday. Expect a seabreeze to approach I-10 the next couple of
afternoons. Daily RH bottoms out in the 30s to 40s away from the
immediate coast, but recover nicely each night. Rain chances, albeit
slight, hold off until Sunday with the best potential mainly west of
the Apalachicola-Flint River Valley. Wetting rains appear unlikely

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 days. The best
potential is on Sunday from a cold front. However, the latest trends
show a weakening frontal system with precipitation coverage and
forecast amounts notably decreasing. Drought will therefore continue
and is expected to worsen areawide.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  59  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   84  65  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        88  60  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        87  57  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  57  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  83  65  80  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3