844
FXUS62 KTAE 081129
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
629 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 625 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Following a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday afternoon, an
   abrupt turn to cold and windy weather will occur Sunday night
   and Monday. The first killing frost and/or freeze of the season
   is expected for all but beachfront communities on Tuesday and
   Wednesday mornings.

 - Small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday afternoon
   through Monday night across all northeast Gulf waters.
   Occasional gusts to near gale force is possible in waters west
   of Apalachicola.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns are expected on Monday afternoon
   with gusty winds, low relative humidity, and ongoing drought
   conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

First shortwave trough will push east today and off the east coast
tonight. Southerly flow is ongoing and will gradually become
southwesterly through the day as the trough exits stage right.
Showers have developed over the Gulf waters this evening in the WAA
regime and high resolution models have additional, isolated
development overnight across the Gulf waters and inland locations.
Modest shear and instability is in place for a low threat of a brief
tornado should any updrafts become sustained. The environment
gradually weakens by 12Z. Remaining showers inland this morning will
move east with dry conditions west to east into the afternoon hours.

In the meantime, the second, and more potent, shortwave dives into
the southern Plains tonight supporting a strong cold front into the
southeast US on our doorstep by dawn Sunday morning. Highs today
will run 5-8 degrees above normal with readings in the low 80s and
lows tonight will fall into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

The first killing frost and freeze of the season is anticipated
early next week.

The cold front blasts through Sunday with isolated showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm accompanying it as it passes through. Winds
quickly clock around to the northwest and become gusty Sunday night
and Monday. This will usher in the coldest airmass of this fall
season as a 1040mb high slides down the high plains Monday and
settles along the northern Gulf coast Tuesday. Highs Monday will
struggle to make 50 degrees in the wiregrass to mid 50s in coastal
areas. Lows Monday night will be the coldest as readings will fall
into the mid to upper 20s over most locations and lower 30s closer
to the coast. With a 5-10 mph wind overnight as high pressure
remains to our west, cold weather advisories, in addition to freeze
warnings, will likely be needed (apparent temperatures of 25F for
Florida counties and 20F for Alabama/Georgia counties). Tuesday
night will be slightly warmer but most locations will reach freezing
and below, and with nearly calm and clear skies as high pressure is
nearby, widespread frost is likely.

As the cold dome pushes east Wednesday, high temperatures rebound
into the 60s Wednesday and 70s Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

IFR/LIFR cigs prevail at the terminals this morning for the next
couple hours. At TLH, ABY, and VLD, fog has developed with
LIFR/VLIFR vsbys at times. Meanwhile, a band of SHRA extends
roughly from ABY to ECP, moving east. TS hasn`t been observed on
land so far, and expect this trend to continue as it moves through
TLH and VLD later this morning. Cigs will slowly climb through the
course of the morning with all terminals back to VFR by 18z. VFR
will prevail until tonight when another round of IFR/LIFR cigs and
patchy fog is expected. This is especially true for TLH and VLD
where the best chance for dense fog is. Uncertainty is higher for
DHN and ECP as to whether the low cigs/vsbys can develop that far
west.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

West to southwest winds are expected with isolated showers through
the day today across the Gulf waters. Conditions deteoriate
Sunday as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. Strong
northwest winds will occur immediately behind the front with gusts
to near gale force, especially in waters west of Apalachicola
Sunday night into Monday night. Winds decrease beginning Tuesday
as high pressure settles into the southeast US and northeast Gulf
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
this morning and once again on Sunday. Rainfall amounts will
generally be light and have virtually no effect on the ongoing
drought. A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday afternoon
with strong northerly winds following the frontal passage into
Monday night. The combination of near critically low relative
humidity values with gusty winds on Monday afternoon is likely to
produce elevated fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue into Tuesday with afternoon humidities in
the mid 20 percent range but stronger winds will diminish.

The coldest temperatures of this fall season are on tap with the
first killing frost and freeze expected for all but immediate

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Severe to extreme drought over much of the region will persist or
worsen over the next 7 days. A limited window of opportunity for
rainfall this weekend will only produce amounts of 1/4 inch or less,
mainly through Sunday. Isolated and localized totals to near 1/2
inch are a reasonable best case scenario. The spotty nature of
rain and the lack of heavier amounts will offer no real relief to
drought conditions.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information on the
ongoing drought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  64  82  43 /  30  10  20   0
Panama City   79  67  79  43 /  10  20  20   0
Dothan        82  62  77  38 /  10  20  20   0
Albany        82  63  80  40 /  20  10  20   0
Valdosta      82  64  83  41 /  40   0  30   0
Cross City    82  65  82  45 /  30  10  20   0
Apalachicola  77  67  76  44 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ017>019-
     027-028.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ158>160.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...DVD