543
FXUS62 KTAE 191846
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
246 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Upper level ridge builds over the southern states while an upper
level trough passes from north to south across the southeast coast
of the US. Surface high pressure will remain in place across the
forecast area with dry northeasterly flow expected through this
afternoon and again on Sunday. The slow warm up continues with high
temperatures near 80 tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Surface high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic remains in firm control of
the forecast through mid-week. A cold front nosing down from the
middle of the country squeezes that high pressure out of the area
Wednesday into Thursday as it moves through. This doesn`t allow for
much return flow from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, so rain
chances remain very low (less than 10%). Another area of high
pressure takes over following the cold front as dry weather lingers
throughout the rest of the forecast period.

Aloft, a developing H5 low off the East Coast of Florida keeps a dry
northerly flow overhead early in the week. With slightly drier mid-
levels expected, have elected to lower dew points, and thus lower
relative humidity values, Monday and Tuesday afternoons. An H5
trough moving through the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday will
help push the cold front mentioned above through our region sometime
Thursday. However, not much cold air is expected following the cold
front as temperatures remain in the lower to middle 80s each
afternoon. Overnight lows will generally run in the 50s to near 60
each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR through the period. Some passing mid level clouds can be
expected over the southern half of the CWA through the day.
Northeast winds will persist as surface high pressure remains to
our north. Wind speeds will generally be between 8-12 knots with
gusts to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds will decrease around
sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A tight pressure gradient over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will
keep fresh to strong easterly to northeasterly breezes through
Sunday morning before decreasing to light to fresh Sunday afternoon
and beyond as the gradient relaxes. Seas of 4 to 7 feet are expected
through tonight before beginning to subside Sunday with seas
generally 2 to 4 feet by Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Elevated fire weather concerns continue though the foreseeable
future. Mainly due to dry afternoons and occasionally breeze
northeasterly flow in the afternoon. Expect relative humidities to
drop to around 25 to 30% the next few days with wind gusts around 15
mph in the warmest parts of the day. Rainfall is not likely for at
least another 7 days across the region which will contribute to
elevated fire weather concerns continuing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

No rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 to 10 days.

The Aucilla at Lamont will fall out of Action Stage later tonight.
Points along the Suwannee River will fall below Action Stage early
next week as the dry pattern continues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   54  80  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   56  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  79  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      51  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    59  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  79  60  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     GMZ752-755-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Reese