213
FXUS62 KTAE 031050
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
650 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A low to mid-level trough will be present today from the I-75
corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend, which will be a focus for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, northerly flow in
the 1000-700 hPa layer to the west of this trough will pin the
seabreeze closer to the Emerald Coast this afternoon, and this
boundary will be another focus for at least some showers and
isolated thunder.

Quite a juxtaposition in column moisture from northwest to southeast
across the region today. PWATs dip to around 1.0" in Southeast AL
(between the 10th percentile of climatology and the daily minimum)
but remain around 2.0" in the Southeast FL Big Bend (near the 90th
percentile of climo). For some perspective, the average PWAT is
1.75" for July 3rd. This will translate into a gradient in PoPs,
with dry weather in Southeast AL and west of the Flint River, then
a gradient as values rapidly increase to 60-70% from lower I-75
corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend. Blended in some of the higher-
res guidance to better define the gradient, with slightly lower
values compared to NBM.

The main concern will be a low chance for flash flooding, mainly
near and east of the Aucilla River in the FL Big Bend, where CAMs
favor the heaviest rainfall; it may only take 3 inches of rain in
3 hours in portions of this area for flash flooding. Otherwise,
thunderstorms may produce gusty winds as DCAPE values increase to
greater than 1k J/kg outside of the Southeast FL Big Bend, with
inverted-v/ caret profiles noted on model soundings. As such, cannot
rule out a couple brief pulse severe thunderstorms. Much of the
activity should diminish a couple hours after sunset.

The aforementioned PWAT gradient across the region translates into
lower dewpoints mainly west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers,
with values dipping into the mid and upper 60s! In fact, there is a
40-50% chance that this area sees dewpoints at or just below 65F by
late this afternoon. Blended in some of the MOS guidance to
represent this.

Patchy fog will be likely again the next couple of mornings. For
this morning, it should be most focused near I-10 in the FL Big
Bend and in Southwest GA, where it may be locally dense.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A weak frontal boundary is forecast to stall just southeast of the
area and will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the FL Big Bend and into far south central GA.
Areas further northwest should remain on the drier side and will
end up a few degrees warmer as a result. This weak boundary is
forecast to gradually dissipate this weekend, and an area of low
pressure may develop over the Atlantic off the NE FL coast. If
this low develops, we could end up being on the drier side than
even currently forecast. Either way, late in the weekend and
heading into next week, a return to more seasonable showers and
storms is expected with an upper ridge building over the
southeastern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Restrictions in fog/low clouds at ABY, TLH, and VLD this morning
down to LIFR at times. As fog dissipates around 12Z and cigs begin
to lift, expect VFR by late morning. SHRA/TSRA redevelop this
aftn at TLH and VLD with brief MVFR restrictions possible, mainly
at VLD, before ending around 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly breezes continue
across the northeastern Gulf thanks to high pressure anchored in
the Atlantic. A weakening cold front moving into the waters
today will increase west to northwest breezes temporarily. A weak
area of low pressure may develop along the tail end of the
remnant front over the northeastern Gulf Friday or Saturday.
Otherwise, late night and early morning thunderstorms are expected
the next several days; they`ll come with gusty winds, lightning,
and the potential for waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Drier air mass filters in northwest of the FL Big Bend the next
couple of days. High dispersions are the main concern both days.
Otherwise, thunderstorms may produce brief erratic and gusty
winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Higher rain chances will shift towards the southeastern Big Bend
over the next few days. Rainfall totals through Friday are
expected to generally remain below 2 inches. However, locally
higher amounts, with localized flooding will remain possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  75  93  74 /  50  20  60  20
Panama City   94  76  94  76 /  20  10  40  20
Dothan        94  73  94  73 /  10   0  30  10
Albany        94  74  94  73 /  20  10  30  10
Valdosta      93  74  93  73 /  50  30  50  20
Cross City    90  74  91  72 /  70  60  70  40
Apalachicola  90  77  90  76 /  50  20  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning
     through this evening for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Camp