


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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583 FXUS62 KTAE 161438 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1038 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Warm and dry conditions persist through at least Saturday with worsening drought and elevated fire concerns. Use caution if burning outdoors. - A weakening frontal system brings a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday-Sunday night, but rain amounts are expected to be light. Overall rain coverage has decreased with this forecast cycle. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The update consisted of lowering dewpoints a few degrees over inland areas this afternoon. This brings the dewpoint forecast more in line with MOS guidance and persistence from recent days, given no substantial change in the air mass. This has the effect of also lowering relative humidity this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A strong upper ridge shifting further into the MS Valley from the west fosters very warm & dry conditions today. This morning starts off with some patchy fog mainly around the I-75 corridor. Daytime temperatures then peak to the mid-upper 80s under a prevailing NE wind thanks to surface high pressure anchored across the Midwest. Expect an afternoon seabreeze to develop, then march towards I-10. For tonight, somewhat light winds and clear skies promote modest radiational cooling, so look for temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Ridging weakens and flattens out in response to a broad northern stream trough moving through the Northern Plains-Great Lakes region. The latter sends a cold front down that will initially serve as focus for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms across Appalachia. However, as the frontal boundary pushes into the Deep South, fleeting upper-level support looks to weaken convection, especially with eastward extent. The latest model guidance shows a slower/diminishing convective trend, so max PoPs have decreased to slight chance with this forecast cycle for Sunday-Sunday night. The best potential is in our Central Timezone Counties. Forecast amounts have also dropped off considerably, which is deflating when it comes to drought relief. East to SE winds develop ahead of the front, then turn northerly following FroPa late Sunday or early Monday. There are some indications that the frontal boundary may stall just to our south as the flow aloft becomes zonal, so lingering showers over parts of the Tri-State area are a possibility. A ridge of high pressure temporarily builds overhead early next week with a slight cooldown amidst continued dry weather. Another shot of rain is on the table near the end or just beyond this forecast period, but prospects don`t look particularly great given meager moisture return. Forecast high temperatures are in the 80s with lows in the 50s & 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An ASCAT pass at 0208Z showed light winds below 10 kts west of Apalachicola and easterlies over Apalachee Bay generally less than 15 kts. CWF Synopsis: Gentle to moderate northeast breezes prevail today before turning east to southeasterly heading into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. A nocturnal easterly surge is expected across Apalachee Bay tonight, such that small craft may need to exercise caution. Chances for showers return to the forecast, mainly across the Panhandle waters on Sunday. Meanwhile, winds turn more southerly during frontal passage, followed by quickly clocking around from southwesterly to easterly on Monday as surface high pressure builds in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Continued warm and dry conditions will make for elevated fire concerns through the first half of this weekend mainly because of very dry fuels. Prevailing NE winds today turn easterly on Friday, then southeasterly ahead of an approaching frontal system by Saturday. Expect a seabreeze to approach I-10 the next couple of afternoons. Daily RH bottoms out in the 30s to 40s away from the immediate coast, but recover nicely each night. Rain chances, albeit slight, hold off until Sunday with the best potential mainly west of the Apalachicola-Flint River Valley. Wetting rains appear unlikely && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 days. The best potential is on Sunday from a cold front. However, the latest trends show a weakening frontal system with precipitation coverage and forecast amounts notably decreasing. Drought will therefore continue and is expected to worsen areawide. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 84 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 59 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3