134
FXUS62 KTAE 191410
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The main changes to today`s forecast were adjusted rain chances
based on current trends. A blend of CONSShort was leaned on more
over the raw NBM to paint a more focused vs broader picture. Best
potential for showers & thunderstorms remain along/south of the
I-10 corridor via the seabreeze and convergent easterly flow. Some
isolated activity also appears possible over the northern
portions of I-75 later this afternoon.

This morning`s 12Z soundings at KJAX/KTBW show a moist airmass
characterized by Precipitable Water near 2" while the more inland
sites of KBMX/KFFC are in the 1.7-1.8" range. Regionally, we are
also looking at DCAPE between about 600 & 900 J/kg. As such,
convection will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For today, the 1000-700 mb mean flow will again be northeasterly
similar to yesterday, which will tend to pin the seabreeze closer to
the coast and lead to the highest chances for rain and thunderstorms
along the coast today. The PoP gradient is again tight across the
area, ranging from around 70 percent near Apalachicola to just 10
percent near Dothan and Albany. Precipitable water values are still
expected to be near 2 inches along the coast, so some locally heavy
downpours remain possible there. The highest rain chances today will
probably be in a corridor from near Apalachicola to Panama City as a
weak vort max traverses that area. High temperatures will generally
range from 90-95 across the area.

For tonight, convection will taper off after sunset with overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

NHC forecast takes Hurricane Erin between well offshore the US east
coast and Bermuda during this time frame. As such, Erin is not a
threat to the Tri-State region. On Wednesday, 850 hPa flow will be
northerly with some added subsidence well west of Erin, keeping PoPs
generally below average in Southwest GA and the eastern FL Big Bend.
Highest PoPs will be in the seabreeze zone in the western Big Bend,
FL Panhandle, and Southeast AL; adjusted guidance in this direction
per ensemble PWAT anomalies. Thursday`s PoP config should be similar
to Wednesday, but higher across the entire region due to westerly
850 hPa flow allowing further inland penetration of the seabreeze.
Given the 850 hPa flow and subsidence on the backside of Erin with
AOB average PoPs, bumped highs to the 75th percentile of guidance
on Wed/Thu, which is also favored by the ensembles. This results in
quite a few locations in the mid-90s for highs. Meanwhile, pattern
is very favorable for turbulent mixing both days, so lowered dew
points closer to the 10th percentile of guidance. Cannot rule out
avisory-level heat (Apparent temperatures AOA 108F) on Wed/Thu
mainly in the FL Counties, but the probability is less than 50%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A mid-level trough and surface front approach from the northwest
late this week, as meridional flow increases PWATs further, with
ensembles indicating around a 70% chance of reaching the 90th
percentile (i.e., ~2.1-2.15") Friday and Saturday. PoPs return above
average both days, with at least localized heavy rainfall likely,
especially near and north of I-10 - See Hydrology section at the
bottom for further details. By late in the weekend into early next
week, the mid-level trough gradually pulls away and the surface
front undergoes frontolysis or moves to the south. There is greater
uncertainty in the PoP distribution on Sunday w/ensembles favoring
the highest values south of I-10. A more definitive push of dry air
should work in on Monday, especially north of I-10, where more
comfortable dew points are possible early next week. While it`s a
ways out, ensembles show a 30-50% probability of dew points AOB
65F early next week to the northwest of the FL Big Bend!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today outside of convection.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be mainly
confined to near the coast with the best chance at seeing a
thunderstorm at ECP and TLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Morning Observations:

Panama City Tide Station (8729108) - sustained east winds near 7
kts.

Panama City Beach Tide Station (8729210) - sustained NE winds
5 kts.

West Tampa Buoy (42036) - sustained light winds, seas near
1 ft, and a dominant period of 4 seconds.

CWF Synopsis: Gentle easterly breezes expected into Wednesday. As
Hurricane Erin recurves between well offshore the US east coast
and Bermuda during the midweek, winds clock around to the west by
Wednesday night, but remain gentle. Given small pressure gradient,
a seabreeze develops each afternoon and evening near the coast.
Shower and thunderstorm chances remain, but the potential for
waterspouts is generally until Thursday or Friday. Briefly higher
winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

As Hurricane Erin lifts northward over the Atlantic well east of
Florida, wind flow over the districts will be northeasterly today,
then northerly on Wednesday. A deeper afternoon mixed layer will
support high afternoon dispersion over inland districts this
afternoon. From Friday through the weekend, a stalled front over
Alabama and Georgia will bring an increase in thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Precip chances trend below average today and Wednesday, then return
to average by Friday. In particular, chances for anomalously high
moisture increase on Friday into Saturday and possibly lingering
into Sunday, as a surface front approaches the region. Cannot rule
out some heavy rainfall leading to at least poor drainage flooding
concerns all three days, but the bar for flash flooding will be high
given drier antecedent conditions over the previous several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  75  95  75 /  30  10  30  10
Panama City   92  76  93  78 /  70  10  40  20
Dothan        93  74  94  74 /  10   0  30  20
Albany        94  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
Cross City    94  72  95  75 /  50  10  20  20
Apalachicola  88  78  90  78 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LF/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LF