Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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158 FXUS62 KTAE 212354 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 654 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A re-enforcing cold front is moving through the southeast US and will pass through our area late tonight. This will bring another push of cold, dry air during the overnight hours. Lows are tricky tonight as we`re embedded in a cold air advection regime. Winds will remain elevated around 5-10 mph. The deterministic NBM is on the warm side of the guidance envelope tonight (upper 30s to mid 40s), even higher than it`s 95th percentile within its distribution. Meanwhile, the HREF indicates shows a greater than 50% chance of temperatures below 40 north of I-10 with about 20-30% chance of below 36 across the AL/GA counties. Thus, went with a heavier weight toward NBM50 and MOS guidance, which yields mid 30s to near 40 for tonight. Winds appear to be too high and humidity too low for widespread frost development. Wouldn`t be surprised to see patchy frost in sheltered locations, but it`s not enough to issue a frost advisory at this time. Highs tomorrow under the advective regime will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s across the area with abundant sunshine. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Surface high pressure will slide east across the northern Gulf coast this weekend, from southern Mississippi Saturday to the Florida peninsula Sunday. Saturday morning will be the coldest of this period, with a potential for a light freeze in the Flint River Valley in outlying areas with areas of frost through much of the area north of I-10. As the high pressure moves east and winds become southerly beginning Sunday, a gradual warmup and moisture levels increase heading into early next week with highs reaching the upper 70s and lows in the 50s. A cold front arrives into the southeast US Tuesday but stalls north of the tri-state area, southerly flow continues into midweek with above normal temperatures continuing. Rain chances are low Tuesday and Wednesday (10-20%) and any rain would be minimal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 VFR conditions for all of our TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Wind directions are generally out of the WNW, becoming more northwesterly into tomorrow. Wind speeds abate slightly in the overnight hours before climbing into the 10kt range with gusts up to 15-20kts for the remainder of the day tomorrow. Current obs at VLD show calm surface winds with near 30 kts at 2000ft via the KVAX VAD Wind Profile. Therefore, LLWS was added to the TAF through 06z, afterwhich confidence is too low at this time to continue the LLWS group. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue into Friday morning. Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet. As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Another cold front moves through the service area tonight bringing an increase in transport winds on Friday. Transport winds will be out of the northwest at 20-25 mph. This will lead to good dispersions with areas of high dispersions east of I-75. Min RH values will drop into the mid-30s across the area. Dispersions will decrease over the weekend as winds become light. Min RH will remain in the mid to upper 30s each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Little, if any, rainfall is expected through mid next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 42 60 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 44 62 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 38 58 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 37 57 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 40 59 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 39 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 46 62 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EST Friday for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Mutschler MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Scholl