436
FXUS62 KTAE 031931
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
331 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Little change in the weather pattern over our region is expected
through Friday, and little day-to-day change in sensible weather is
forecast.

Low-level southeasterly and southerly flow will continue, as we lie
between a strong high pressure center near Bermuda, and lower
pressure over the eastern half of Texas. Meanwhile, a very strong
500 mb high will remain anchored east of the Georgia Bight, with 500
mb heights remaining in excess of 5900 meters across our forecast
area. This will maintain warm and dry mid-level conditions, putting
a cap on thermal lift and squashing any thought of afternoon
convection.

The SE-S low-level flow will continually reinforce the warm and
muggy air mass, more characteristic of late spring. Temperatures
will run well above normal. Morning lows on Friday may stay at or
above 70F, particularly near the coast, and high temps on Fri
afternoon will reach the upper 80s to near 90 once you get inland of
the seabreeze`s cooling influence.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High pressure over the Western Atlantic remains in place going into
and throughout Saturday, further enabling the warm and moist
conditions present for much of this week. High temperatures will
climb up to the 80s throughout our region, with areas further inland
inching closer to the 90s. Southerly flow will keep dewpoints
elevated into the 60s and 70s, adding mugginess to the abnormally
warm temperatures. Despite the moist atmosphere, rain is not
expected Saturday due to the subsidence provided by the high
pressure. In terms of winds, conditions will be somewhat breezy as a
notable pressure gradient forms between the high pressure and a
trough to our west. Winds are expected to be strongest over our
waters and along the coast with speeds of 15-20 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The primary weather concern for this period is a trough pushing
through the southeast Sunday and Monday, bringing a cold front with
it. The lift provided by the cold front, alongside a moist
atmosphere primed by the high pressure and southwesterly flow of the
incoming trough, will create an environment favorable for heavy rain
during this period. The WPC day 1-5 QPF outlook predicts 1- 2
inches of rainfall from this system, with local pockets of heavier
rain possible. Therefore, the WPC places a marginal risk for
excessive rain in the western portions of our CWA on Sunday, and
the entire CWA on Monday. The SPC day 4 outlook places a 15% risk
for severe weather to account for possible severe convection given
the modest shear and instability expected ahead of the front
Sunday afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday morning, cold and dry air behind the front will cause a
drop in temperatures and dewpoints. Much of our region will see
temperatures slide into the 40s early Tuesday morning, with
temperatures climbing toward the upper 60s to low 70s during the
day. Wednesday and Thursday follow a similar trend as temperatures
gradually warm again. Toward the end of this period, a second
shortwave trough entering the southeast could increase rain chances
for northern portions of our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A warm and moist low-level air mass is in place, with fairly
strong southeasterly to southerly low-level flow. Little change in
the weather pattern or the air mass is expected for the next 24
hours. Therefore, most changes in cigs and vsbys will be a
function of daytime heating raising cloud bases. In fact, the 18z
TAF has been largely fashioned on persistence, in other words
forecasting the same conditions for the next 24 hours as has been
observed over the past 24 hours. So look for the current field of
cumulus to clear out around sunset, as thermal lift ends. IFR
cigs are possible right around sunrise, then lifting during the
post-sunrise hours on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Small Craft conditions will continue over the protected waters of
St. Andrews Bay through the remainder of the afternoon before
relaxing overnight. However, the gradient will remain tight
through Friday, with conditions remaining at least at exercise
caution levels over the waters through Saturday. Small Craft
conditions will likely return no later than Sunday morning ahead
of the approaching cold front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Moist southerly flow will continue into the weekend as high
pressure to the east keeps a rather tight gradient in place. This
will keep RH values, as well as dispersion values rather high. A
front will push through early on Monday with a much drier and
cooler airmass moving into the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms return late this weekend. These storms
will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall which would lead
to possible nuisance flooding and river rises. However, our
rivers are in good shape now. There are no riverine flooding
concerns with this upcoming system at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  86  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   70  81  68  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        68  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      69  91  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    68  90  64  88 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  76  68  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Gonzalez/Camp
LONG TERM....Gonzalez/Camp
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery/Camp