114
FXUS62 KTAE 230141
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
841 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

No significant updates were needed for tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Clouds stream in from the west tonight into Sunday. Temperatures
tonight will be a bit warmer than the past few nights, thanks in
part to those clouds, with lows in the middle 30s to near 40 around
the region. A few peeks of sunshine early Sunday morning will allow
temperatures to warm into the 50s, maybe lower 60s, before more
clouds and some rain arrives later Sunday afternoon.

An H5 trough, which can easily be seen on the mid-level water vapor
imagery on GOES-16, moving through northern Mexico travels through
the Southern Plains and spawns an area of low pressure in the
western Gulf this evening. The low trudges along the northern Gulf
tonight into Sunday, bringing ample cloud cover along with it. Rain
is forecast to spread over the region from west to east Sunday
afternoon. Have elected to speed up the arrival of the rain by a few
hours compared to the NBM to be more in-line with the latest hi-res
guidance. In doing so, temperatures have been bumped down a degree
or two Sunday afternoon to account for this. That said, if the rain
arrives later than expected, temperatures would be warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

The short term period begins with an area of low pressure in the
Gulf waters moving eastward just offshore of the Florida
Panhandle. Upper support in association with this surface feature
seems to be more pronounced this model cycle in both the Euro and
GFS. As a result, rain chances in the 12z model cycle in both
these two models and other ensemble members has increased. Thus,
will be increasing PoPs for Sunday night into the categorical
range in the south and tapering down to likely PoPs across our
northern areas. While this will not be a heavy rain event,
everyone is expected to get at least some light rain before the
low completes its transit across the Gulf and into the Atlantic.

By late Monday morning and into Monday afternoon, strong drying
aloft as a result of the trough digging into the Central Gulf,
will lead to decreasing cloudiness from west to east, and an end
to rain chances across the region. Since the system is mostly
Pacific in origin, there is little in the way of cool air behind
the system so overnight lows on Monday into Tuesday will only fall
into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

The long term period will feature a period primarily of tranquil
weather, however, model guidance does show a frontal system
approaching the area on Thursday. During the first half of the
period, surface high pressure will build over the Northern Gulf
keeping the area clear and dry, but by Late Wednesday, an
amplifying northern stream trough will drop out of Canada into the
upper Midwest en route to the Ohio Valley by late Thursday. This
will push a surface frontal feature toward the Gulf coast states.
This positively tilted and quick-moving upper trough will provide
some lift for precipitation, but given the lack of significant
return flow ahead of the boundary, rainfall will be tough to come
by. Thus, have only shown modest rain chances with this frontal
passage and given the lack of return flow have kept thunder out of
the forecast with Thursday`s system.

Beyond Thursday, high pressure will build back into the region and
while a brief cool down of a few degrees is expected across the
board, the airmass will moderate quickly with temperatures
warming into the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions can be expected through the majority of the TAF
period. Following 18z Sunday, showers will begin to move into the
region affecting our western terminals first, then continuing
eastward through the evening and overnight hours. With these
showers, ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR and perhaps IFR
levels following 00Z. Vsbys may also be limited due to the
rainfall. Thunderstorms are not expected. Winds throughout the
period will be light to calm northerlies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A disturbance will move across the Gulf on Sunday evening,
resulting in an increase of northeasterly winds and widespread
rain. By Monday, this system will move east of the marine area
with a return of relatively tranquil conditions for the waters
through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the marine area on
Thursday with an increase in offshore winds in its wake.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Rain is forecast to arrive late Sunday afternoon and be exiting
early Monday morning. Rainfall totals on the order of 0.1" to 0.5"
is expected, with the higher amounts mainly confined to the Florida
districts. Otherwise, light and variable transport winds are
forecast Sunday. MinRH values will be on the increase the next
couple of days before drier weather arrives Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

While the region will get rainfall on Sunday night into Monday,
amounts are expected to be less than a half inch of rain, so there
are no flood concerns with this system. Moreover, Thursday`s
system should deliver little if any rainfall as the front moves
through, so do not expect any flood concerns through the forecast
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   41  60  51  63 /   0  80 100  50
Panama City   44  57  51  66 /   0  90 100  30
Dothan        36  56  47  64 /   0  80  90  10
Albany        35  59  47  63 /   0  60  70  20
Valdosta      39  62  50  62 /   0  60  80  50
Cross City    41  68  52  64 /   0  70 100  60
Apalachicola  46  60  52  61 /   0  90 100  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Godsey