924
FXUS62 KTAE 130044
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
844 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 836 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- A prolonged heat wave will continue through at least early next
  week with major to extreme heat risks. Stay hydrated, take
  frequent breaks in air-conditioned spaces, avoid strenuous
  activities during the hottest part of the day, and wear light
  clothing.

- Scattered storms will be possible each day, mainly during the
  afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could be strong to
  briefly severe with damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A band of showers and thunderstorms is moving slowly southward
through southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with trailing
showers behind it. The overall trend has been for weakening as we
are losing daytime heating. For the next couple hours, the
stronger storms could still have wind gusts of 30-50 mph and
frequent lightning. Once the showers and storms end in the next
few hours, quiet weather is expected for the rest of the night.
Some patchy fog is possible in areas that got the heaviest rain,
but this will mainly be confined to lower-lying areas early in the
morning. Rain chances and temperatures have been adjusted to
account for current observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Mid level ridging will meander over the northern Gulf coast Thursday
then gradually shift northwest into the Mid-South and southern
Plains Friday and into the weekend, then shift west towards the High
Plains Tuesday as a series of mid level shortwaves ride over the
ridge across the northern states. Despite the mid level height
center moving further west, the ridging actually strengthens this
weekend and sets up through the southeast US. At the surface, high
pressure will essentially remain throughout the Gulf through early
next week maintaining west to southwest low level flow and the
continued influx of Gulf moisture. Subsidence is evident via area
cross sections with dry air at and above 700mb. This will allow some
mixing but with highs in the mid to upper 90s heat indices will
still reach 105-112F Thursday and Friday with heat advisories likely
and will need to keep an eye on coastal sections for an excessive
heat watch.

As the mid level high shifts north into the weekend this will allow
a slug of moisture to infiltrate the area from the east. PWATs jump
up as well as the column above 700mb moistens which will limit
mixing and keep our heat indices elevated. Highs look to approach
the century mark early next week with heat indices in portions of
the area above 113F and possibly necessitating excessive heat products.

As the mid level ridge is nearly overhead, rain chances Thursday and
Friday will be below normal and mainly forced along the seabreeze;
first along the Panhandle seabreeze then move inland with time. As
the ridge moves away this weekend with added moisture, rain chances
are a little higher Saturday and Sunday at 40-60%. However, as the
ridge strengthens into early next week, rain chances decrease
significantly, back to 20-30%.

Bottom line? The hazardous heat wave will continue into next week
with not much relief from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A line of TSRA stretches from near DHN to near TLH, slowly moving
south. Trailing SHRA continues at VLD as well. These should slowly
sink south away from the terminals and weaken over the next hour
or so. VFR conditions prevail at ECP and ABY, and will resume at
all other sites once SHRA/TSRA exits. Some patchy fog could
develop near DHN overnight and maybe VLD as well. Another round of
scattered TSRA will redevelop Thursday after 18z, which has been
accounted for with PROB30s at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light to moderate west to southwest breezes will continue into
the weekend as high pressure dominates. A slight uptick in winds
in the nearshore waters and bays is possible as the sea breeze
develops each afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will mostly
be confined to land areas, but nearshore morning showers or storms
could pose a waterspout risk.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light southwest to west transport winds will continue over the
next few days. Dispersions will be good with mixing heights
generally from 4500-6000 feet. Scattered showers and storms are
possible each afternoon, generally starting near the coast in the
late morning or early afternoon, then moving inland through the
afternoon hours. The exception will be any organized complexes of
storms that would generally move south-southeast. Gusty, erratic
winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near storms.
Otherwise, hazardous heat will be expected each day with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and heat index values of 105-115.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day. Localized heavy downpours are possible in
heavier convection. Although a few instances of nuisance flooding
may occur, widespread flooding concerns are not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  77  96  77 /  40  50  30  10
Panama City   93  80  93  79 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        95  76  95  76 /  40  40  20  10
Albany        95  77  96  77 /  50  10  40  10
Valdosta      96  74  97  76 /  70  30  30  20
Cross City    95  76  95  76 /  10  40  30  20
Apalachicola  92  79  92  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Thursday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
     128-134-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl