338
FXUS62 KTAE 240152
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
952 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The current forecast is generally on track, only a few minor
changes to reflect precipitation trends. Some patchy fog is
expected to move in overnight as showers and lingering
thunderstorms diminish.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms linger across parts of South GA
and the FL Big Bend tonight, but should be on a diminishing trend
from waning instability. Attention then shifts to fog potential
nearly areawide through sunrise, especially where the heaviest rains
end up falling. Guidance is insistent on development overnight into
early tomorrow morning, and hone in on AL/GA the most. This
possibility is accounted for in the point-and-click wx grids with
the mention of "patchy fog". Either way, expect thick cloud cover
thanks to the presence of a stubborn frontal boundary amidst a very
moist airmass. Low temperatures dip into the low 70s.

On Sunday, the quasi-stationary front sags a bit more south while
its parent mid-level shortwave pivots eastward. These shifting
features prompts the highest Precipitable Water, and subsequent axis
of precipitation to the Eastern FL Big Bend and offshore marine
zones. Expect maritime convection to flourish once again during the
morning hrs before giving way to inland development. It appears the
seabreeze will act as an additional focus for afternoon
showers/thunderstorms, along the I-10 corridor, capable of locally
heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Isolated flash
flooding would be the main threat with locations in the Suwannee
Valley under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall
in the Day 2 WPC Outlook. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the upper 80s to about 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A break to the recent summer heat will arrive this week.

Stationary boundary will remain draped from the Florida panhandle
northeast to southeast Georgia Sunday night into Monday. The
supporting mid level trough will be in the process of being
absorbed into the longer wave trough as it digs southeast.
Upstream, a cold front will push south through the Mid-South and
this feature is on the leading edge of cooler and drier air from a
1025mb surface high sliding south into the northern Plains. This
front will slide into the area Monday into Tuesday and overtake
the stationary boundary while moving south of the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. PWATs will fall below an inch at most locations north
of the eastern Big Bend and rain chances will follow suit, just
20-30% in the eastern Big Bend Tuesday and Wednesday. Of note,
rain chances were reduced 10-20% (mainly over the Gulf waters)
through late week as the model trends have been for drier air to
penetrate further south and NBM appears a little overdone on
chances. A secondary, reinforcing cold front will swing through
midweek as the surface high reaches the Ohio Valley and a wedge of
dry air gets entrenched towards the Gulf coast, further adding to
the notion to reduce rain chances.

Northerly flow will bring down drier air with dewpoints falling
into the mid 50s across the wiregrass to mid 60s in the eastern
Florida Big Bend. In turn, highs Tuesday through Friday will be
low to mid 80s in southeast Alabama and adjacent southwest Georgia
to around 90 degrees near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

An active evening with SHRA/TSRA lingering into tonight,
efficient rain producers dropping conditions to near IFR around
any lingering activity. Otherwise, conditions will continue to
degrade to MVFR/IFR as the night continues with CIGS lowering and
some fog possible, especially in the early morning hours, though
expected to stop short of ECP at this time. Conditions will
gradually improve tomorrow, with low stratus hanging around
through the first part of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A stationary boundary will hang around the area this weekend into
Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf waters while
keeping winds fairly light and from the west to northwest. As a
cold front moves through later Monday into Tuesday, winds will
clock around out of the northwest to northeast and become moderate
at times over the open Gulf waters. Cautionary- level winds
cannot be ruled out over the western waters by Tuesday and
Wednesday with seas building to 2 to 3 feet. Rain chances decrease
for mid-week over the waters. Winds and seas slowly decrease
heading towards the end of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Patchy fog is possible nearly areawide tomorrow morning. Rainfall
axis shifts mainly to the seabreeze zone towards the
I-10 corridor Sunday afternoon as the front responsible for
wetting rains the past couple days sags southward. Pockets of low
dispersions briefly overtake parts of SW GA.

A dry post-frontal airmass with building high pressure and
northerly winds effectively shuts down convection Monday-Tuesday.
Exceptions are along the immediate coast into the Eastern FL Big
Bend where seabreeze convergence is expected. High dispersions
appears to encroach on the Wiregrass Region on Monday thanks, in
part to 6000+ ft mixing heights. Relative humidity is forecast to
bottom out in the 40s by Tuesday!

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Flood watch remains for southwest Georgia counties from Grady
County north to Lee County and points eastward through 11PM ET.

A stationary boundary will remain draped through the area until
Monday when a stronger cold front will overtake this front while
pushing south of the region. Much drier air will filter into the
region beginning Tuesday with little rainfall expected through
late week.

Until then, flash flood guidance values have diminished to about
2 to 2.5 inches within 1 hour or around 3 to 4 inches within 3
hours across the Alabama and Georgia Counties. with 3 to 3.5
inches within an hour across the Florida counties. Latest CAMs
show activity through the Florida counties now through the
afternoon with additional convection increasing through much of
southwest Georgia in the flood watch. Storms will slowly diminish
heading into the overnight hours. Therefore the risk for flooding
is now through late evening with efficient and slow moving
thunderstorms.

With the heavy rainfall over our Georgia counties the last couple
days, some of the rivers are beginning to rise. Namely, this is the
upper Ochlockonee River near Thomasville and the Withlacoochee River
above Valdosta. Both of these are forecast to rise into action
stage, but chances for minor flooding are very low. Farther north,
many of the Georgia rivers can take the extra rainfall and remain
below flood stage. However, some of the smaller creeks and streams
could reach bankfull should heavy rainfall fall over the smaller
basins.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  73  89  72 /  60  40  40  10
Panama City   88  75  89  75 /  60  40  20  20
Dothan        86  72  87  70 /  40  10  10  10
Albany        85  72  86  71 /  70  30  20  10
Valdosta      86  72  86  71 /  70  40  20  10
Cross City    88  74  87  73 /  90  40  50  30
Apalachicola  87  76  88  76 /  90  40  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ125>131-145>148-
     157>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl