370
FXUS62 KTAE 121408
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1008 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Expect
pleasant weather with warming inland temperatures approaching 80F.
An afternoon seabreeze keeps the coastal strip a few degrees
cooler.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Surface high pressure to our south in the Gulf will push east across
the peninsula this afternoon and off the east coast tonight. As a
result, relatively calm winds currently will become established from
the southwest later this morning. Patchy fog over the Florida
panhandle and big bend this morning will dissipate after sunrise
with mostly sunny skies thereafter. Aloft, weak ridging overhead
will push east with a more zonal flow today then southwesterly
tonight as a shortwave trough emerges into the southern Plains.
Thunderstorms will develop over the ArkLaTex later today then spread
east tonight. Increasing clouds are expected ahead of this system
over the western half of the area later tonight while areas of fog
may develop east of the cloud cover from Tallahassee to Albany line
and east towards the I-75 corridor. Appears that showers will be
located just west of our AL/FL panhandle counties by sunrise
Thursday morning.

Highs today will generally reach the mid to upper 70s away from the
coast while low 70s will be more the norm near the coast. Lows
tonight will be 5-10 degrees warmer compared to this morning lows
with readings mainly in the low 50s with mid 50s in the western
Florida panhandle as winds turn more southerly off the Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

An upper level trough approaches the region from the west on
Thursday afternoon as south and southwesterly flow in the low-
levels brings moistening conditions. As the upper level trough
axis passes overhead in the afternoon and evening hours, colder
mid-level temperatures and steeper lapse rates will develop
across our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties. While
no appreciable surface boundaries will help initiate storms, the
combination of increasing instability amongst steepening lapse
rates and ongoing shower/storm activity moving in from the west
could spur the development of additional showers and possibly an
isolated severe storm or two. Main concerns would be hail given
the cold temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear, but
some brief isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as well. This
activity continues into the nighttime hours of Thursday but will
gradually wind down with loss of instability and the upper level
trough weakening during its passage over the area.

An upper level bridge briefly builds over the region Friday
morning but as the pattern stays quite progressive, expect
strengthening southerly flow, much warmer temperatures, and a
continued moistening trend into Friday evening ahead of a more
significant round of severe weather this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The upcoming weekend will see a continued moistening trend across
the region as strong southerly flow continues in advance of our
next widespread chance for severe weather. As a deep upper level
trough approaches the tri-state region Sunday morning, two waves
of showers/storms are expected. The first will be early Saturday
morning, and mostly across southeast Alabama as the first wave
passes through the deep-south.A brief severe threat can`t be ruled
out, but it`s likely severe weather stays north and west of the
area Saturday morning. The second and more significant severe
threat arrives late Saturday afternoon/evening across our western
counties in the Panhandle and southeast Alabama as stronger deep-
layer shear and a strengthening low-level jet arrive. Widespread
shower and storm activity will be ongoing to our west, likely in
the form of a powerful squall line with embedded scattered to
widespread severe storms. As this line continues east overnight
into Sunday morning, the severe threat is likely to continue
across the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia.

Across our forecast area, the greatest coverage for potentially
significant (NWS considers significant severe any severe report
that is either an EF2+ tornado, 2" inch hail, or 70mph wind
gusts) severe weather will be across southeast Alabama and the
western Panhandle where the strongest deep-layer shear,
instability, and forcing will be present. The risks for
significant severe drop quickly across the Florida Big Bend and
southern Georgia by early Sunday morning, but given the strong
shear in place and sufficient instability, some maintenance of
any squall line should continue. A severe threat will likely
persist into these areas, but likely with a lesser magnitude
compared to what locations west of the Apalachicola will
experience.

Quieter conditions and a brief cooldown move in behind the front
for the early part of next week with no significant weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR today into this evening with light to calm winds becoming
southwesterly around 5-10 knots this afternoon. Overnight, a
storm system will approach the area with clouds increasing from
TLH-ABY westward. DHN and ABY cigs will decrease to MVFR while ECP
and TLH will remain VFR. Towards VLD, areas of fog are
anticipated along the I-75 corridor with vsbys decreasing to IFR
after 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a westerly wind near 6
kts with 2-ft seas and a dominant period of 7 seconds late this
morning.

CWF Synopsis: Surface high pressure will make for gentle to
moderate breezes through mid-week with afternoon seabreezes
inducing a southwesterly wind along the immediate nearshore legs.
Prolonged onshore flow develops Thursday and Friday, followed by
increasing southerly winds this weekend in response to a potent
storm system moving in from the west. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms notably increase late Saturday into early Sunday,
and they will be capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
waterspouts. Advisory conditions are likely over the weekend along
with winds winds and seas likely remaining around cautionary
levels into early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

After a round of patchy fog across the Florida panhandle and big
bend early this morning, skies will be sunny with highs in the 70s.
This will yield afternoon RHs in the upper 20s to mid 30s north of
the state line to mid 30 to mid 40 south then around 50+ towards the
coast. High pressure will move into the Florida peninsula later
today with calm winds this morning becoming southwesterly this
afternoon. Transport winds increase as a result with marginally high
dispersions over southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia. Southwest
to south winds tonight into Thursday will bring in a more moist
airmass with another round of fog in the morning with afternoon RHs
well into the 50-60% range. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
be on the increase Thursday with the highest chances north of I-10
and into the Florida panhandle. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1001 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

AM Update: A Flood Warning was issued for the St Marks River - Newport
on Old Magnolia Rd this morning. Current river levels are 8.1 ft,
just above minor flood stage. The forecast calls for a drop into
action by this evening or later tonight.

There are no renewed hydro concerns in the short term as the next
batch of any meaningful rain holds off until this weekend.
Current rainfall amounts are widespread 1-1.5 inches, but are
likely to change in subsequent QPFs. Aucilla Lamont remains in
minor flood stage and is forecast to crest later today then
gradually go down. Valdosta Skipper Bridge has crested and will
stay in action stage through the remainder of the week. Most other
rivers in action have crested or will stay below below minor flood
stage through the week. The progressive nature of this next system
is not expected to bring any new riverine concerns. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  52  73  57 /   0   0  30  20
Panama City   72  59  71  61 /   0   0  40  10
Dothan        77  52  72  58 /   0   0  80  20
Albany        78  49  73  54 /   0   0  80  40
Valdosta      79  51  76  55 /   0   0  30  20
Cross City    77  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  70  59  69  61 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Dobbs/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs/IG3