227
FXUS62 KTAE 041425
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1025 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The main changes to today`s forecast were adjusting rain chances
based on the latest 12Z HRRR and observations. Light radar returns
were noted late this morning on the heels of continued brisk
easterly flow off of JAX`s area. Gusty isolated showers with
perhaps a couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
mainly over portions of our FL counties (including the Forgotten-
Nature coasts) and localized spots around I-75. Plenty of mid-
level dry air precludes high convective coverage.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A weak upper-level trough will move into the area today with low-
level easterly flow bringing increasing moisture. PWATs bump to
1.4 to 1.6 inches. With only weak lift at best, just some widely
scattered showers are expected this afternoon and evening. An
isolated rumble of thunder or two is possible, but instability
will be rather limited thanks to the abundant cloud cover in
place. The tighter pressure gradient between the stalled front to
our south and the high to our north keeps breezy winds in the
forecast with gusts of 20-30 mph. Highs will be in the mid 80s
with lows near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Another weak upper-level trough moves into the area Sunday with a
broad mid-level low positioned over the central Gulf Coast to our
west. To our east, a weak inverted trough along the stalled front
to our south positions itself along the Atlantic coast.
Previously, the front looked like it would lift northwestward
toward our area, but models have backed off on this idea. It
appears that now the best rain chances will be well to our east
with the inverted trough and to our west with the mid-level low as
we get stuck between these two features. Rain chances for Sunday
and Monday have decreased as a result, and consequently, rain
totals have come down too. There still will be scattered showers
and storms around the area both Sunday and Monday. It will still
be breezy Sunday and Monday as well, but gradually decreasing.
Highs will be in the mid 80s with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Ridging begins to build across the Gulf Coast during the middle
part of the week. This will help suppress rain chances for the
long term period as well as increase temperatures. Highs will
return to the upper 80s to near 90. Combined with humidity, heat
index values rise to the mid to upper 90s. Later in the week,
troughing returns to the eastern US, breaking down the ridge and
sending a cold front through the area. Cooler temperatures look to
arrive behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. A few
hours of MVFR ceilings is possible in the morning near VLD and
ABY but should improve to VFR by mid to late morning. Breezy
northeast to east-northeast winds will continue during the
daytime. Some isolated showers are possible from 18-00z this
afternoon. These would mainly affect TLH/ECP sites if they
develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Rain chances were reduced over the waters, especially west of
Apalachicola with a better focus for maritime convection over
Apalachee Bay today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for
all waters. Such conditions are being observed at Buoy 42012 late
this morning.

CWF Synopsis: The prolonged Small Craft Advisory conditions
continue across the marine area through the weekend. Strong
easterly breezes remain thanks to high pressure to the north and a
stalled front to our south. Rough seas of 5 to 7 feet are
expected as well. Chances for showers and storms increase through
Monday as the front tries lifting northward. The pressure gradient
relaxes heading into early next week, but cautionary conditions
may persist through at least Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Strong easterly transport winds continue through this weekend,
reaching 15-20 mph during the afternoon. Mixing heights will top out
around 5,000 feet each afternoon, which will lead to good
dispersions each day. Isolated showers are possible today, mainly
in the Florida and south Georgia zones, followed by an increased
chances for rain Sunday and Monday across the area. However,
chances for wetting rains have decreased since yesterday to around
30-40%. RH values remain well above critical levels. Due to the
drying fuels and gusty winds, some elevated fire concerns remain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

While abundant moisture does move into our area over the next
couple days, it appears the source of lift will be more diffuse
than previously forecast. As a result, forecast rainfall totals
have decreased over the area with most areas seeing around a tenth
to a quarter inch, though higher totals up to 0.5 inch are
expected near the coast. If some heavier downpours materialize,
then the reasonable high-end (90th percentile) totals are around
1 to 1.5 inches. Flooding is not a concern. With ongoing drought,
any rain we receive is beneficial, but this will yet again not be
a drought-busting rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  71  85  71 /  20  10  50  20
Panama City   84  71  85  71 /  20  20  60  50
Dothan        83  68  83  69 /  20  10  40  30
Albany        83  69  85  71 /  10   0  40  20
Valdosta      83  70  85  71 /  20  10  50  20
Cross City    87  71  88  71 /  30  10  50  20
Apalachicola  82  73  83  73 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young