228
FXUS62 KTAE 261853
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
253 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A fairly routine near term is on tap, low-level southerly flow will
reestablish allowing the sea breeze to push fairly deep inland
tomorrow afternoon. An upper-level low will continue to meander
gradually northeastward throughout Friday while adding some
additional forcing for ascent. This will allow us to see more
convective coverage tomorrow, beginning closer to noon rather than
late afternoon as we`ve been experiencing the last few days. Heavy
downpours and gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The upper low will remain largely in place across the Southeast
through the short term period. With sufficient deep layer moisture
in place, this will create an environment that leads to above
normal PoPs, especially during the daytime hours with diurnally
driven convection. The operational NBM PoPs were used and while
these are higher than the GFS-based statistical guidance, the
overall environmental setup seems quite favorable to the N-S PoP
gradient presented in the NBM. While convective activity from
Friday may influence trends on Saturday, the overall pattern does
seem to support higher end PoPs than the GFS-based statistical
guidance baseline.

With all the expected convective activity, this will limit MaxTs
to the lower 90s, which will provide relief from the recent
stretch of much above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Though the upper low across the Southeast will gradually weaken
and lose definition, it`ll be replaced with a longwave trough
across the Eastern CONUS as a ridge amplifies across the Four
Corners region out west by the end of the period. This will lead
to an extended period of southwesterly flow which is often quite
favorable for widespread convective activity and thus the higher
PoPs in the forecast that are 15-30 percent above climatology.
Note that southwesterly flow days, especially those later in the
period that have mean 1000-700 mb flow in excess of 10 kt tend to
feature earlier starts to convective initiation due to faster
inland penetration of the sea breeze fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the
TAF period. Some scattered showers and/or thunderstorms may impact
VLD/TLH later this afternoon and early evening where the overcast
cloud deck is beginning to slowly dissipate. Any activity is
expected to wind down after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A high pressure ridge over the waters today will drift south of
the waters on Friday. On its north side, gentle to occasionally
moderate southwest and west breezes will develop on Friday and
continue through Monday. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage will be
abundant at times, especially during the late night and morning
hours, bringing the threat of lightning, gusty winds, and
waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The air mass will become a little more moist each day through this
weekend into next week, and a weak area of low pressure will pinch
off and sit over Georgia starting Friday. This will set up a
pattern full of summer thunderstorms and pockets of heavy rain
over the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Widespread rainfall over the next several days is expected to add
up to 4-5 inches of rain across portions of North Florida with
lesser amounts up into Georgia. Of course, this is over a broad
area, as localized amounts could be much heavier. In this sort of
wet pattern, individual thunderstorms could lead to flash
flooding, especially in urban environments given the high rainfall
rates. River flooding, however, is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  91  73  91 /  40  60  30  90
Panama City   74  89  76  90 /  40  60  40  80
Dothan        71  91  71  91 /  30  60  30  70
Albany        71  92  71  92 /  30  60  40  70
Valdosta      71  93  72  93 /  40  70  30  80
Cross City    70  92  72  92 /  50  60  30  80
Apalachicola  76  87  78  88 /  30  50  30  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey