869
FXUS62 KTAE 140053
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
853 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Forecast is on track. No major adjustments were required.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Weak surface low and its associated mid-level trough will lift north
and northeast out of the forecast area through the remainder of the
day. Scattered showers and storms around the edge of this trough
will rotate in through the forecast area through the remainder of
the afternoon. The greatest coverage has been and will continue to
be around portions of the Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and into
southwest Georgia through the day. While showers and storms
should generally diminish by the evening, a trailing surface
boundary could keep isolated showers going into the overnight
hours before most of the activity drops off late tonight.

For tomorrow, westerly flow begins to take over as the trough
lifts out and the upper level ridge across the Florida Peninsula
begins to rebuild. This should allow temperatures to warm up
across the area a few degrees more than today`s highs. Another
round of scattered showers and storms is forecast, but with drier
mid-level air working into our Alabama/Georgia counties, we`ll
likely see rain chances 10 to 20% lower across these areas. The
best rain chances will remain over our Florida counties for
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A fairly typical summertime pattern is expected for the upcoming
week with daily showers and storms along with seasonably hot and
humid conditions. A few subtle changes in the mid to upper level
pattern will allow for a few days to be slightly warmer and drier
than others, but for the most part the day to day changes won`t be
noticeable unless you`re watching the forecast very closely. While
hot and humid conditions are generally expected throughout the
upcoming week, Friday and Saturday have the best chance for
getting close to potential heat advisory criteria across roughly
the southern half of the area due to a bit of mid-level ridging
nosing in.

Daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
area, with the best coverage expected along the afternoon
seabreeze. Some isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and gusty winds
will be possible each day, although widespread flooding or severe
weather are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Low probability of brief SHRA/TSRA at ABY/DHN through 02Z.
Guidance indicates higher probs for low cigs at DHN for late
tonight and they never materialized at ABY Wed morning. As
such, have included IFR w/brief LIFR at DHN where confidence
is greater and a brief period of MFR at ABY. Meanwhile, a
brief period of MVFR at VLD around 11Z w/medium confidence.
Any low clouds/fog should dissipate/scatter out by late in
the morning with attention turning to diurnal SHRA and TSRA
during the aftn and evening. The only exception is at ECP
where there is a PROB30 for TSRA roughly 10Z-16Z due to the
low-level westerly flow in place, which will be weak enough
for a seabreeze to develop at ECP during the aftn. Westerly
flow pattern supports a PROB30 for TSRA at ABY with TEMPO
groups at the remainder of terminals during aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Weak low pressure over southern Alabama continues to move
northeast and east across southern Alabama and Georgia later
today and tonight, keeping mostly moderate southwest breezes in
place across the waters. The subtropical ridge axis will expand
over the Eastern and Middle Gulf on Thursday and Friday,
supporting merely gentle westerly breezes along the Northeast Gulf
Coast. Weak high pressure should bridge in from the north this
weekend, causing gentle breezes to become more variable in
direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Scattered showers and storms are expected the next few days in
typical summertime fashion. Warmer conditions will move in for the
end of the week and upcoming weekend. This will bring higher heat
indices, possibly to advisory (108F) level. Aside from the warmer
conditions and gusty/erratic winds near thunderstorms, minimal
fire weather concerns are forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. This time period
will feature varying amounts of otherwise typical summer
thunderstorms. A quick inch or two of rain is possible beneath
stronger storms. This would cause short-lived nuisance flooding,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas. However, river
flooding and flash flooding are not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  92  76  94 /  20  50  10  40
Panama City   79  90  78  91 /  30  40  10  40
Dothan        74  92  74  93 /  30  40  10  40
Albany        75  92  75  94 /  50  30  10  40
Valdosta      76  93  75  94 /  20  30  20  40
Cross City    77  93  76  94 /  20  40  10  50
Apalachicola  80  89  78  89 /  30  40  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Haner