643
FXUS62 KTAE 041707
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
107 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Made minor adjustments to the WX and POP grids, in order to
reflect current radar trends. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread
during the day. Winds will generally be from the east, shifting to
southeast later this evening in our FL counties. The rain is from an
upper level low over the Gulf that is bringing in easterly flow and
moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic, increasing PWATs to 2
inches. PoPs today range from 70-80 percent. A decrease in
shower/thunderstorm activity is expected during the overnight hours
(40-50%), but will likely pick up again on Thursday. Temperatures
today will be a little cooler due to the cloud cover and rain, with
highs in the low to mid-80s. Lows tonight will be a muggy low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Troughing over the area and near-record moisture will continue to
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday.
Multiple rounds of convection will be possible, with the best
chances for rain in the afternoon when daytime heating is at its
peak. The timing and exact location for different waves of
showers and storms will largely depend on mesoscale features such
as recovery time and boundaries left by previous rounds. Right
now, the primary threat remains locally heavy rainfall although
some gusty winds will be possible, particularly in the afternoon
and evening Thursday. While heavy rainfall will be possible, any
flooding impact will depend on rain totals from previous rounds
accumulating over the event. Flash flood guidance remains pretty
high as the region has been dry lately, so it would take a
substantial amount of rainfall to create more than nuisance
flooding of urban and poor drainage areas.

The upper low over the Gulf and associated surface trough is
forecast to push northeast over the Peninsula and into the
Atlantic on Friday, returning our local region to a more typical
summertime setup. However, deep moisture will remain overhead and
lead to higher coverage of the daily diurnal showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend and into next week. One bonus of
the higher PoPs and associated cloud cover is that high
temperatures won`t be *quite* as toasty as they were a week or so
ago.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025
Light to moderate rainfall has already impacted ktlh early this
aftn, with isolated to scattered -SHRA across portions of the
area warranting a VCSH at all terminals. Precip activity
anticipated to surge a bit throughout the rest of today, and
therefore tried to highlight best timing of precip impinging on
the terminals. Overnight, may see a bit of a lull in precip at the
majority of terminals, with renewed precip anticipated tomorrow
morning. Once again, have inserted chances for rainfall with
appropriate timing at the TAF sites. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR CIGS
will be persistent through this TAF cycle, with intermittent VFR-
MVFR VIS due to the rainfall. Gusty winds embedded with a rain
shower is possible, whilst easterly winds will shift to the
south/southwest by tomorrow late morning/aftn.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

As an upper level low meanders to our south, easterly winds at
about 15-20kts with gusts approaching 25kts along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Winds should gradually
taper off to 5-10kts and shift to southerly by Thursday as the low
begins to exit the region, and a general return to a typical
summertime pattern follow beginning Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day
today. Erratic winds and lightning will be present for
thunderstorms. Sustained transwinds will generally be easterly
around 10-15 mph, shifting to southeasterly for our FL districts
later in the afternoon/evening. Dispersions today will be mostly
fair, with moderate values in our Georgia districts along I-75. More
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with similar
environmental conditions, except the transwinds will shift to
southwesterly and elevated dispersions in the SE FL Big Bend. On
Friday, there is a decent chance for rain again, but should be more
diurnal in nature. Winds will be westerly with high dispersions
scattered throughout the Tri-State region on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A predominantly wet pattern is anticipated through the remainder of
the week. Widespread 1.5-3in of rain is expected, although isolated
higher amounts nearing 5-6in can`t be ruled out. Conditions have
been largely dry as of late, and thus widespread flooding concerns
remain low. Current 1-hr flash flood guidance across our CWA is
high at around 3-4 inches, so again, the preceding dry conditions
are helping limit flooding concerns. For now, The Weather
Prediction Center has outlined our entire CWA in a marginal (level
1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  72  88  72 /  70  50  80  20
Panama City   84  73  87  75 /  70  50  70  30
Dothan        85  70  88  72 /  70  50  70  10
Albany        84  70  88  71 /  80  50  70  20
Valdosta      85  71  88  71 /  80  50  80  20
Cross City    84  70  87  71 /  70  70  90  30
Apalachicola  82  75  85  76 /  70  60  80  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Bowser
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Oliver