342
FXUS62 KTAE 220546
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
146 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

One day of hot temperatures is forecast this afternoon in advance of
an upper level ridge shifting north and west this afternoon and into
the short/long term period below. As the upper level ridge shifts
north and west, a surface trough and weak upper level trough will
approach from the east embedded within a very moist tropical
airmass. Upstream (across the Florida Peninsula) PWAT observations
were quite moist with the JAX 00z June 22 sounding recording around
2.3 inch PWATs. This moisture plume will shift west and northwest
into the area this afternoon and into Wednesday morning and allow
fairly scattered to widespread convective activity compared to the
last several afternoons. With this highly moist airmass, and fairly
steep low-level lapse rates across the area, some stronger gusts
can`t be ruled out. Widespread severe weather is not expected but
isolated strong, maybe severe, storms can`t be ruled out where storm
mergers and outflow boundary interactions occur. While the highest
probabilities for showers/storms will be across our Florida Big Bend
and Georgia counties closer to the moist airmass moving in,
scattered activity is also possible along the Panhandle and into
southeast Alabama. Further activity could continue into parts of the
overnight hours in Georgia as the surface low begins to move in.

Of additional concern will be the hot temperatures. Today is likely
to be the hottest of the past few afternoons heat index wise,
especially if showers/storms develop more slowly today. With much of
the area likely climbing to around 108 or higher for the heat
indices, have issues a heat advisory for the entire forecast area
this afternoon. The main uncertainty though is how fast, or not,
convection fires today. Compared to the previous afternoons, much
greater activity is forecast but it could also develop earlier and
it wouldn`t be surprising if some areas don`t reach criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

A TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) will move from the
Bahamas across the Gulf Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, a weak
front with a wave of low pressure will skirt along the northern Gulf
Coast. This will result in a rather wet pattern Wednesday and
Thursday, especially with abundant tropical moisture in place. The
LREF PWAT mean is around 2.4-2.5 inches, meaning any storms that
develop either day will be very efficient rain producers and could
produce several inches in a short period of time. While not everyone
will get the heavy rainfall, those that do could see some localized
flash flood concerns. The best chances for the heavier rainfall are
closer to the coast.

The good news from all this is our temperatures will be "cooler", so
to speak. We may still heat up a good bit in our westernmost areas
Wednesday afternoon as storms may not arrive until late in the day,
so highs will range from near 90 in south Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend to the mid 90s in the Florida Panhandle and parts of
southeast Alabama. It`s possible we may need one more Heat Advisory
for parts of the Panhandle where heat index values could reach 110
before storms arrive. Thursday will be more widespread low 90s with
heat index values around 100-105. Lows will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Well, the wetter pattern begins to dry up again as another ridge
moves in from the east Friday and builds over the southern US this
weekend. With that, PWATs will come down to about 1.8 to 1.9 inches,
and we`ll return to a more typical summertime pattern and coverage
of showers and storms. But, with the ridge in place and high
pressure nosing in, our temperatures will go right back up and we`ll
return to the mid to upper 90s this weekend and early next week with
heat index values again near Heat Advisory thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period but expect
increasing convective activity after 18z, especially at eastern
terminals of TLH/VLD and coast terminals of ECP. Lesser confidence
for inland terminals at ABY/DHN, but chances still warrant mention
in the TAF. Localized and brief MVFR/IFR visibilities are expected
in storms but conditions should return to VFR fairly quickly after
storms move out. Some convective activity could continue into the
overnight hours after 03z Wednesday, mostly affecting TLH/ABY/VLD if
forecast trends continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

As high pressure slides off to our west, winds will remain light out
of the west to northwest. An area of low pressure will move in from
the east Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a return to moderate
south to southeast winds before diminishing into the weekend. Some
cautionary conditions may be possible Thursday depending on the
strength of the low. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to become more numerous over the next several days,
primarily during the overnight and early morning hours. However,
storms moving offshore during the afternoon are also possible. Gusty
winds, dangerous lightning, and waterspouts are possible with the
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Aside from higher dispersions and another round of hot temperatures
today, with heat indices approaching 105-112, fire weather concerns
should remain low through the next few days. A tropical-like airmass
will move into the region from the east beginning later this
afternoon and especially on Wednesday. This will, bring high chances
for wetting rains across the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Some
drier air returns to the region later this week and for the upcoming
weekend but fire concerns should continue to remain low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible the next few afternoons
and evenings given very high PWATs. Storms will be very efficient
rain producers and could drop a few inches of rain within a short
period of time. This could lead to localized nuisance to flash
flooding, especially in poor drainage and urban areas. In general, 1-
3 inches of rain is expected through the end of the week across the
area with localized 3 to 5 inch totals under the heavier storms.
However, a widespread flood concern, both in terms of flash flooding
and river flooding, are not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  76  91  75 /  70  40  90  60
Panama City   95  78  93  77 /  50  40  90  70
Dothan        97  75  92  74 /  40  20  80  40
Albany        98  75  91  75 /  50  40  90  40
Valdosta      98  75  91  74 /  60  50  90  40
Cross City    94  74  90  73 /  70  60 100  50
Apalachicola  93  78  89  78 /  60  60  90  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Young