295
FXUS62 KTAE 150639
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
239 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected
  today, with heat index values generally reaching 100-107
  degrees, especially over the Florida counties.

- Strong northeast winds will cause hazardous marine conditions
  across the northeast Gulf waters tonight through Thursday
  afternoon.

- A high risk of rip currents at local beaches is expected through
  late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through next Monday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface ridging will build south through the Appalachians beginning
today while the surface high pressure slides off the northeast US
coast. Upper high remains in the Tennessee Valley through
Wednesday. A weak surface boundary will lead the push of drier air
and an uptick in breezy northeasterly winds progged to reach the
area late this afternoon along I-75. Before this, today will be
another day of highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s yielding heat index values of 100-107 (higher end of range
closer to the coast where the higher dewpoints will reside). Any
showers that develop would be relegated to the immediate coast and
eastern Big Bend.

The dry air will push PWATs down towards an inch Wednesday and
Thursday while breezy northeast winds pick up with gusts around 25
mph in the late morning through afternoon hours. Dewpoints may
actually dip into the upper 50s across the wiregrass Wednesday and
Thursday while highs will be slightly cooler with readings in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Lows Thursday morning will fall into the mid
60s through the wiregrass which is a welcome change, albeit brief,
from the lower 70s south of I-10. Rain chances will be limited and
generally over the Gulf waters and Florida Big Bend.

An upper low will reach the Bahamas Thursday moving westward into
the northeast Gulf Friday, then the Global models diverge on how to
handle the movement of this feature through the weekend (Euro keeps
the upper low to our east into early next week whereas the GFS
continues its trek westward towards the mouth of the Mississippi
river). Regardless, the upper high retreats westward relinquishing
the hold on drier air through the column as PWATs gradually work
towards 2 inches this weekend. As such, rain chances make a
return first south of I-10 Friday then back into the entirety of
the area this weekend. As the subsidence exits stage left and the
upper low, clouds, and higher rain chances envelope the area,
highs will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog
is possible late in the night near VLD with MVFR vsbys possible.
Otherwise, the only other impact in the TAF period will be gusty
easterly winds late morning through the afternoon with gusts up to
20 kt possible at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Winds become northeast to east this morning as high pressure builds
to our north. Initial light to moderate winds become moderate to
strong beginning this evening as easterly surges develop over the
Gulf waters through Thursday afternoon. Although a reprieve in the
strong winds may occur Wednesday afternoon, it will be short-lived
with strong winds returning Wednesday night persisting into Thursday
afternoon. As a result of the stronger winds, seas will build to 4
to 6 feet, with occasional 8 feet in offshore waters. Small craft
advisories are in effect from this evening through Thursday
afternoon. Winds and seas will gradually relax into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

As high pressure builds to the northeast, transport winds will
become easterly with speeds of 10-15 mph today and 15-20 mph for
Wednesday and Thursday. Dispersion values will increase to high for
the Florida and Alabama Wiregrass regions, and the ANF near and
along I-10 today. High dispersions continue for Wednesday and
Thursday, with pockets of high dispersions throughout all the
districts. As drier air will be filtering in, afternoon humidities
will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s through much of the week. High
temperatures will be in the mid 90s today with heat indices ranging
from 100-107. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast beginning
Wednesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

No flash or riverine flooding expected over the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  73  90  70 /  30  10   0   0
Panama City   94  76  91  72 /  30  20   0   0
Dothan        94  73  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        95  71  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      93  71  91  68 /  20   0   0   0
Cross City    92  74  90  71 /  50  10   0   0
Apalachicola  89  78  89  74 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to
     5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Thursday for GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl