373
FXUS62 KTAE 080019
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
819 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 817 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

 - Above average temperatures and humidity will continue through
Wednesday with heat index values reaching the mid to upper 90s in
the afternoon.

 - Hazardous boating conditions will develop Thursday evening and
last through at least Saturday with northeast winds in excess of 20
knots.

 - Drought relief is not anticipated with widespread rain not
expected through the next seven days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Made some minor tweaks to POPs to account for the latest radar
trends. That said, most of the showers should diminish before
midnight at the latest. Otherwise, no major updates were made to
the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

An upper level ridge currently over the region will weaken over the
next 24 hours as an upper level trough and surface cold front
approach from the north. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the area, but
significant rainfall is not expected. High temperatures will
generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows
in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

By Thursday and Thursday night, the cold front will be on the
doorstep with stronger northeasterly flow expected across the area
as surface high pressure begins to build in from the northeast. This
is a cold air damming pattern, so we went on the lower side of
guidance for high temperatures across the northern portions of the
forecast area for Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
remain possible along the front, but rain chances are only around 20
percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

By Friday, the cold front is expected to have pushed through the
area with cooler and drier air in its wake. Further east, a coastal
low along the mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce the northerly flow
across our region. This should also allow cooler temperatures back
into the forecast with many locations likely seeing overnight lows
drop into the 50s by Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Mostly VFR conditions through the night. ABY and VLD can expect
low cigs and vsbys prior to daybreak (IFR to LIFR), as noted in
TEMPO groups. TLH may also experience low cigs; confidence is not
as high for this site but still included in TEMPO group. Cigs and
vsbys will improve for all sites by mid-morning with VFR
conditions expected through the rest of the TAF period. Light
northeasterly winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

East to northeast winds will continue for the next several days.
A backdoor cold front will move through the area on Thursday
evening, bringing with it an increase in northeast winds over 20
knots with small craft advisory conditions. There is a 20 to 30
percent chance of gale force gusts. These hazardous conditions
will likely last through at least Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the week with
no widespread rain expected. As a frontal system moves through late
this week and into the weekend, breezy northeast winds are expected,
which could increase fire weather concerns somewhat. However,
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Significant rainfall is not expected over the next seven days, and
drought conditions will persist.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  90  71  86 /  20  10  10  20
Panama City   72  89  72  87 /  10  20  10  20
Dothan        69  88  69  80 /   0  30  10  20
Albany        68  88  70  75 /   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      68  89  70  80 /  20  10  10  20
Cross City    68  90  69  88 /  10  10   0  20
Apalachicola  73  84  72  84 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     FLZ108-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD