003
FXUS62 KTAE 121613
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1113 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

The warm front continues to move northward through South-Central
GA with much of the region entrenched within the warm sector.
Visible satellite indicated breaks in the stratocumulus which are
characterized by north-south oriented cloud streets, except for
a more solid cloud layer streaming off Apalachee Bay into the
FL Big Bend. Temps are rising through the 70s attm and based on
the latest trends, including less cloud cover, have raised highs
on average about 3 degrees, closer to the 75th percentile of
the guidance.

Regional VWPs indicate ~925 hPa winds around 30 knots and model
soundings are supportive of mixing near the this level. So wind
gusts today should peak around 30 to 35 mph from I-10 corridor of
the Eastern FL Panhandle into SE AL and Southwest GA; cannot rule
out a couple of peak gusts to 40 mph. Meanwhile, the more stable
marine layer in the FL Big Bend should keep wind gusts capped
closer to 30 mph.

Cannot rule out a couple strong discrete  storms late this aftn
and evening in SE AL into perhaps Walton/Holmes Counties, if
stronger convergence can overcome a bit of a cap. The main concern
would be isolated, damaging winds given the strong wind field,
but also have to watch for rotation given decent SRH (0-1 km).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

A trough over the western US will dig southeastward over the central
and southern Plains today. This will help a surface low pressure
system finally dislodge and push eastward across the Gulf Coast
states today and tonight. Breezy conditions are expected across the
area today and tonight as the gradient tightens and a low level jet
develops overhead. Winds mixing down to the surface from the LLJ
could create gusty conditions even outside convection.

A stalled frontal boundary draped just to the north of the area this
morning is already serving as a focus for some shower development,
with a few additional showers developing over the FL Panhandle as
well. Showers and eventually storms this afternoon won`t make much
eastward progress until the trough gets closer late tonight or early
Thursday morning. A that time a swath of showers and thunderstorms,
some potentially severe, will be pushing into the region from the
west with the greatest threats damaging winds, a couple of
tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 358 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

An organized line or band of showers with thunderstorms should be
moving into or already over SE AL/FL Panhandle Thursday morning
attendant to a southeastward sagging cold front. Discrete to semi-
discrete (super)cells are also likely ahead of the primary
convection. The environment will be favorable for isolated severe
weather and heavy rain. The SPC highlights a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) roughly along/west of Worth-Colquitt-Thomas-Jefferson County
line in the Day 2 Convective Outlook - valid 12Z Thursday to 12Z
Friday. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is also maintained across
much of the Tri-State area in the WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook.

Model soundings depict plentiful deep-layer shear, marginal
instability, and unidirectional SW wind profiles amidst anomalously
high Precipitable Water. These parameters combined with the dominant
linear storm mode suggests that damaging wind gusts would be the
main threat, followed by tornadoes, in addition to high rain rates
falling from the more robust convection. Any tornadic activity
should be more favored in supercells or QLCS notches. The 6Z HRRR
depicts a SW-NE-oriented squall line crossing the ACF basin Thursday
morning, then sagging into the Eastern FL Big Bend & Lower I-75
corridor during the afternoon while on an apparent weakening trend.
Lingering showers are likely Thursday evening, followed by
relatively dry weather on Friday as surface high pressure filters in
behind the passing front.

High temperatures cool from widespread 70s on Thursday to
predominantly mid/upper 60s come Friday. A low-temperature gradient
will exist from NW to SE thanks to modest cold-air advection via
northerly flow with readings in the low 40s (Dothan-Albany area) to
low 50s (SE FL Big Bend).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Surface high pressure quickly slides from the TN Valley off the
Atlantic Coast on Saturday in response to an energetic shortwave
trough approaching from the west. The latter feature induces
cyclogenesis near the Appalachians that results in a deepening area
of low pressure to below 1000 mb. This system then tracks NE while
dragging a stronger cold front through the region than its
predecessor on Sunday.

Pronounced warm-air advection gets going via long-fetched southerly
flow as Thursday`s frontal boundary lifts north as a warm front,
thus setting the stage for a second round of severe weather and
heavy rain Sunday morning-afternoon. Confidence remains high enough
to keep 15-29% probabilities outlined by the SPC in the Day 4-8
Convective Outlook for the Lower MS Valley.

Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend. A notable
cooldown then arrives early next week following frontal passage with
below-normal temperatures on tap. Widespread lows in the 30s are
forecast Monday-Tuesday morning. A temporary warming trend then gets
underway ahead of yet another storm system around Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

A blanket of MVFR to IFR conditions ongoing this morning will
gradually improve to VFR later this afternoon. Passing showers
will be possible across the western sites, with a larger swath of
showers and thunderstorms expected to begin pushing through the
area from west to east early Thursday morning. Another round of
low ceilings is forecast late tonight and Thursday morning. Gusty
winds will remain through the taf period, even outside of showers
and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Sea fog will continue to primarily affect Apalachee Bay thru at
least Thursday, when a cold front traverses the waters. Ahead of
this front, southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots, in addition to
showers and thunderstorms tonight through early Thursday night.
Some storms on Thursday could lead to brief wind gusts in excess
of 34 knots, waterspouts, and locally higher seas. Winds briefly
turn out of the north late week when surface high pressure slides
eastward. A stronger cold front sweeps across the region this
weekend, with the potential for advisory-level conditions for
small craft, especially west of Apalachicola on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

High dispersions are expected today as windy transport winds are
expected ahead of an approaching cold front. A few showers and
storms will be possible today and tonight, particularly across
Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle. Rain chances increase
dramatically from west to east on Thursday as a cold front pushes
across the area. Drier and cooler conditions return Fri in the wake
of the front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Rain is on the way and will be coming in multiple waves over the
next several days as an active weather pattern takes shape. The
first round occurs on Thursday from a cold front, followed by
another cold front Sunday, then an area of low pressure mid next
week. Localized nuisance and/or flash flooding may occur beneath
the core of robust thunderstorms via high instantaneous rain
rates despite their expected fairly progressive nature. Dry
antecedent conditions preclude widespread hydrologic concerns.

Forecast amounts are 1-2" with isolated 3+ inches. The axis of
heaviest precipitation remains positioned to our north and NW, but
trends will have to be monitored for any potential southward
adjustments. Another factor to consider is the possibility of minor
coastal flooding along portions of Apalachee Bay today from strong
southerly onshore flow. As of late last night, the SINF1 gauge at
the NE End of St George Island showed a brief rapid rise into minor
flood stage at just above 2 ft coincident with the high tide cycle.
However, recent observations show a downward trend into action
stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   80  67  74  49 /  10  20 100  20
Panama City   77  65  73  50 /  20  60 100  20
Dothan        81  62  71  43 /  40  70  90   0
Albany        83  64  73  42 /  20  50  90  10
Valdosta      82  67  75  47 /   0  10  90  20
Cross City    81  64  79  54 /   0  10  50  50
Apalachicola  72  66  70  53 /  20  30  90  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ730-755-
     765-775.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...IG3/LF
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3