093
FXUS62 KTAE 061823
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
223 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A broad upper trough will make eastward headway on Sunday across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, giving the cold front
currently over central Alabama some slow but steady push to the
south. It is moving into a marginally moist air mass with
Precipitable Water (PW) values near 1.5 inches. Its proximity
could support a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
late this afternoon and early this evening for areas along and
west of the Flint Valley.

So the front will continue to make slow but steady progress south
to near the coast late tonight. It will get hung up over the SE
Big Bend or along the Nature Coast on Sunday. Yes, the northerly
wind shift will make it that far south, but the genuinely drier
and somewhat cooler air mass will hang back across our Alabama and
western Georgia counties on Sunday afternoon, so don`t expect
much cooling on Sunday south of there. Low-level convergence in
proximity of the front and the moister air mass further south will
support scattered afternoon thunderstorms, mainly for the FL Big
Bend region and far south Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the start of the term, a cold front will be passing through
the region, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Monday. As the cold front pushes through, northeast winds may
become a little breezy with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon as
drier air filters in from the northwest. Temperatures will be
somewhat cooler with highs in the upper 80s for most of the
region. Low 90s will be possible along the Emerald coast. PoPs on
Monday are highest in areas south of I-10, with better chances
towards the Southeast Big Bend; ranging from 40-70 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

An unsettled pattern will continue through midweek as the cold
front is expected to stall in the Gulf waters; keeping the lifting
mechanisms in place for diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The
chances for showers and storms will mainly be limited to the FL
panhandle as moisture will not likely make it far enough inland
for development in Alabama or Georgia. PoPs range from 30%-60% for
FLorida Big Bend to the southeast Big Bend. PoPs gradually
decrease each day heading towards the end of the week with the
better chances over the marine zones.

Temperatures for the long term will be in the mid to upper 80s
and overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through the week, even with
the drier air in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A weak cold front will slowly sag south across the region in the
next 24 hours. As it nears DHN and ABY late this afternoon, a few
showers or possibly an isolated thunderstorm could develop.
Further south near ECP, TLH and VLD, the air mass is too dry for
convection this afternoon.

There are a few indicators of post-frontal stratus around sunrise
Sunday behind the front near DHN, ABY and VLD. Confidence is on
the low side, so have hedged for now by simply indicating SCT
coverage stratus with cigs at or below 1,000 feet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

East to northeast flow will prevail over the waters through
midweek next week. Cautionary conditions are likely with Advisory
conditions possible behind a cold front Monday night into Tuesday
with winds between 17 to 23 knots. Seas respond by increasing to 3
to 5 feet. The cold front will stall over the waters, allowing
for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop through
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A weak cold front will make slow by steady progress southward
across the districts tonight. A few showers or perhaps a
thunderstorm could accompany the front, but it will be a dry front
for many districts. The front will be followed by gentle
northerly breezes on Sunday. Winds will clock around northeasterly
on Monday, becoming gusty from Monday through Wednesday due to
low pressure development east of the Georgia coast. Meanwhile, the
front will hang up along the Nature Coast for much of the week
ahead, with its proximity supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon through at least Wednesday near the
Nature Coast and Forgotten Coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Rainfall totals are expected to be about an inch and less for the
CWA through the week. There are minimal to no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  92  71  88 /  20  40  20  50
Panama City   75  93  72  90 /  10  30  10  40
Dothan        71  91  68  87 /  20  20  10  20
Albany        72  92  70  85 /  10  30  10  20
Valdosta      73  92  71  86 /  20  40  20  40
Cross City    73  91  72  88 /  50  60  30  70
Apalachicola  75  88  73  86 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery