403
FXUS62 KTAE 030603
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
203 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A wet pattern continues with several rounds of showers, storms, and
potentially heavy rainfall expected again today and tonight. A
stalled frontal boundary draped across southeast AL and southwest GA
this morning will continue to camp out and provide a focal point for
convection. A very moist airmass (even by August in FL standards)
remains overhead, with forecast PWs in the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range. At
the same time, more northern portions of the area are forecast to be
on the southern periphery of the right entrance region of an upper
level jet along with some troughiness at 500mb. These factors along
with surface convergence along the stalled front will likely combine
to create several rounds of widespread to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the area. While coverage is forecast to be
greatest during the daytime hours with the extra boost of daytime
heating, some showers and storms will likely still linger into the
late evening and even overnight hours. With such a moist airmass in
place, very high instantaneous rain rates will be possible, allowing
a lot of rainfall to pile up in a relatively quickly amount of time.
Also, steering flow is forecast to be fairly weak today meaning that
storm motions may be quite slow. Add all of that together along with
recent rainfall and we get a decent flash flood threat across the
region. A Flood Watch has been issued for the area (excluding the
far southeast FL Big Bend) through Monday to account for this
threat. For now it appears that the greatest threat for heavy
rainfall and subsequent flooding is still across SE AL and GA along
and near the stalled boundary, but all portions of the area in the
watch could see some locally heavy rainfall and flooding.

Highs today are forecast in the low/mid 80s north of the boundary
and the upper 80s to near 90 south of the boundary due to expected
rain and cloud cover. Very high humidity however will keep heat
indices in the mid 90s to near 105F despite the lower high
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the area through Monday
afternoon.

General troughiness over the region at H5 will keep an abnormally
moist air mass over the region through much of the work week.
Combine this with a dissipating stationary front and daytime heating
and the ingredients are there for above normal rain chances the next
several days. Precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast to run
between 2.0" to 2.3", or above at least the 75th percentile and
nearing the max in some instances. As a result, locally heavy
rainfall is the primary concern any one day through at least
Thursday. This is why the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (Level 1 of 4) over all
or portions of our area through the middle of the week.

That said, there will likely be some wobbles with respect to where
the heaviest rain axis will be each afternoon. Slightly drier air
attempts to filter into portions of the Southeast Florida Big Bend
on Monday as the axis of heavier rain attempts to line up over the
Emerald Coast into southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
The drier air moseys a bit more west on Tuesday as the H5 ridge
nudges in from the east, pushing the axis of heavier rain farther
west. Wednesday and beyond should return to a more summer-like
pattern with showers and storms expected each afternoon.

Temperatures will vary quite a bit as those that experience clouds
and rain most of the day will remain in the lower to middle 80s
while those that remain drier warm into the lower to middle 90s.
Overnight lows remain in the middle 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Very messy taf period is forecast with a mix of showers,
thunderstorms, and low ceilings expected. Showers may continue this
morning near the coast with lowering ceilings and some fog across
the northern sites. Expect another day of fairly widespread showers
and storms across the area, potentially again lingering into the
late evening and early overnight hours. Mostly VFR conditions are
expected during the day outside of showers and storms, but MVFR to
IFR conditions are likely at all terminals periodically throughout
the taf period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Light to moderate southwesterly breezes continue through at least
Tuesday. Winds become more light and variable by mid-week as a front
washes out across the Southeast. Late night and morning
thunderstorms will be prevalent through early Tuesday during the
late night and morning hours, when frequent lightning, waterspouts,
and reduced visibility in heavy rain should be expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Several rounds of widespread to numerous showers and storms are
expected over the next several days due to a stalled cold front
across south Alabama and south Georgia within a very moist air mass.
The prevalence of clouds and rain will bring pockets of poor
afternoon dispersion through Tuesday. The stalled front will begin
to dissipate on Tuesday, so the districts will return to more
typical summer weather from Wednesday on, meaning seasonably hot
temperatures and scattered afternoon storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Isolated instances of flash flooding remain a concern through at
least Tuesday. A stalling front over the region will be the focal
point for a few rounds of showers and storms Sunday and Monday
before dissipating later Monday evening into Tuesday. Precipitable
Water Values (PWATs) nearing or exceeding the 90th percentile, or
~2.1", plus very deep warm cloud layers of 15-16k feet should lead
to efficient warm rain processes and rain rates in excess of 2-3"
per hour within the heavier showers and storms.

A Flood Watch has been issued for all of our area outside of the
Southeast Florida Big Bend; widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches are possible over the next couple of days with a few
locations possibly picking up 8 inches in isolated spots.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  74  88  74 /  90  70  90  40
Panama City   89  77  87  78 /  80  80  90  70
Dothan        86  71  83  72 /  90  70  90  60
Albany        84  71  84  72 /  90  80  90  60
Valdosta      88  72  89  73 /  90  70  90  40
Cross City    91  74  93  74 /  80  40  60  50
Apalachicola  88  79  88  79 /  80  70  90  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ007>019-027-108-112-
     114-115-118-127-326-426.

GA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese