053
FXUS62 KTAE 181831
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
231 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Through Tuesday, 1000-700 mb layer flow will slowly back in
direction through the northeast, partly due to Hurricane Erin moving
north through the Atlantic way out east of Florida. This wind flow
is already pinning the seabreeze front close to the coast today, and
that will happen again on Tuesday. Though Precipitable Water (PW)
values of 1.6 to 1.9 inches on Tuesday will be moist enough to
support at least isolated convection most anywhere across the
service area, scattered convection will be confined south of I-10
due to limited seabreeze penetration.

With northeast flow and a more confined steamy seabreeze, dewpoints
will actually dip into the lower 70s and upper 60s on Tuesday
afternoon. By most standards, that is still muggy, but it represents
a shade of muggy relief compared with many days over the last week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The Tri-State area will be sandwiched by a strong heat ridge of high
pressure over the Desert SW and Hurricane Erin gaining latitude
offshore from the SE US coastline. This atmospheric pattern prompts
locally dry north low-level winds. When combined with subsidence
induced by Erin on its left periphery, we are looking at mostly dry
weather outside of convergence along the seabreeze front during the
short-term period. As such, highest PoPs (chance to slight chance)
are confined primarily to the coast and adjacent marine zones. Some
isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible inland from convective
outflows and/or potential wrap-around moisture.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s with heat
indices ranging from about 100-107 degrees. Surface mixing of dry
air aloft likely precludes advisory level conditions as we are
looking at widespread dew points in the low 70s away from the
immediate coast. However, some isolated pockets of 108+ heat index
are possible. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Hurricane Erin is expected to shoot the gap between the coastal
Carolinas and Bermuda on Thursday as it pulls farther away from the
region. Low-level winds turn southwesterly in response, thus kicking
off a moistening trend back to levels supportive of at-or-above-
normal rain chances. A wetter pattern then takes shape Friday-
Saturday thanks to a sagging frontal boundary from the north
providing a focus for showers/thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall capable
of nuisance and/or isolated flash flooding is likely to be the main
weather concern heading into this weekend. The tradeoff is "cooler"
daytime temperatures around 90 degrees/upper 80s from increased
cloud cover/precipitation. Mid 70s for overnight lows won`t budge,
however.
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Scattered air mass thunderstorms will pop up during this afternoon,
mainly along a seabreeze front that will be hugging the coastline
this afternoon in the face of general northeast flow. So a few
storms should move within the vicinity of TLH and ECP. Atlantic
seabreeze activity may affect VLD later in the afternoon. Though a
storms cannot be ruled out near DHN, confidence is too low to
include in the TAF. The air mass is drier at ABY, so thunder can
almost be ruled out there this afternoon. Storms will quickly
diminish and dissipate within an hour or two of sunset.

Nocturnal Gulf convection will stay well offshore early Tuesday
morning.

Northeast flow is typically favorable for early morning stratus at
VLD, so have reflected this for a few hours around sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Afternoon Observations:

Panama City Tide Station (8729108) - sustained NE winds 4-5 kts.

Panama City Beach Tide Station (8729210) - sustained ENE near 7 kts.

West Tampa Buoy (42036) - sustained NE winds near 15 kts with 1-2-ft
seas, and a dominant period of 4 seconds.

An ASCAT pass at 1106AM EDT showed easterly winds generally at or
below 10 kts across the local waters.

CWF Synopsis: High pressure to the north fosters favorable boating
conditions are expected this week outside of daily maritime
convection during the late-night and morning hours. Outside of the
afternoon seabreeze, light to gentle easterly breezes prevail
tonight and tomorrow with localized nocturnal surges over Apalachee
Bay. By mid-week, winds turn more offshore, then become westerly to
southwesterly to close out the work week as a frontal boundary sags
southward. Stormy weather is forecast this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

As Hurricane Erin lifts northward over the Atlantic well east of
Florida, wind flow over the districts will become northeasterly on
Tuesday, then northerly on Wednesday. The seabreeze will therefore
struggle to penetrate inland past coastal districts. So a hotter and
somewhat drier air mass will prevail from Tuesday through Thursday.
A deeper afternoon mixed layer will support high afternoon
dispersion over inland districts. From Friday through the weekend, a
stalled front over Alabama and Georgia will bring an increase in
thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Not much in the way of significant rainfall is anticipated through
Thursday. However, the pattern turns wetter starting Friday into at
least the first half of this weekend when a frontal boundary sags
into the region. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall is in place for the Day 4 (Wiregrass) & Day 5 (nearly
areawide) Outlook - valid Thursday AM to Saturday AM. Isolated flash
flooding is therefore possible during that time frame from likely
multiple rounds of heavy rain. Riverine flooding is not a concern at
this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  93  76  92 /  10  30  10  30
Panama City   76  92  77  92 /  20  40  20  40
Dothan        73  93  74  92 /  10  10   0  20
Albany        72  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      72  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
Cross City    74  94  74  94 /  30  40  10  30
Apalachicola  77  89  78  90 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3