689
FXUS62 KTAE 112323
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
723 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - Widespread low temperatures in the 50s the next few mornings.
   The first consecutive sub-60 degree days since early May for
   many.

 - A warm and dry forecast next week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A mid level cutoff low remaining over the area today will very
slowly slide to the east/northeast over the Carolina coast over
the next few days with relatively cooler and drier air staying put over
our local region. As it moves slowly NNE, this low will develop
and then deepen a surface low pressure along the stalled cold
front draped over the FL Peninsula and drag it northeastward. This
will keep offshore winds overhead for our area and lead to the cooler
and drier conditions persisting through this weekend and into
early next week.

Around midweek, mid level ridging begins to slide eastward over
the Mississippi Valley with moisture return kicking off across the
region. Persistent northerly flow may be able to push a weak
front through the area around mid/late week, but confidence is
fairly low on whether or not it would reach our area or if any
noticeable change would even be felt.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Remaining cloud cover at ABY, TLH, and VLD is expected to decrease
from west to east overnight into Sunday with mainly VFR conditions.
Gusty northerly winds will gradually subside with fewer gusts
expected on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Fresh to strong northeast breezes from a continued tight pressure
gradient maintain advisory level conditions for waters 0 to 60
nautical miles from the coast until this evening or late tonight.
Cautionary boating conditions turn more favorable on Sunday
through much of next week as high pressure ushers gentle to
moderate northerly breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Breezy north-northeast winds continue this afternoon with cloud
cover slow to erode east of the Apalachicola-Flint River basin. On
Sunday, clouds linger around the I-75 corridor with the potential
for light showers from lingering wrap-around moisture west of a
lifting low-pressure system. Otherwise, winds lighten up and turn
more out of the north, thus reinforcing the dry airmass. Relative
humidities respond by bottoming out in the 30s to 40s for most
locations. For Monday, mostly sunny skies amidst 5000+ ft mixing
heights foster high afternoon dispersions for parts of SE AL & SW
GA. Minimum RH is forecast to be mostly in the 35-45% range. Warm
and dry conditions for much of next week may re-introduce elevated
fire concerns via drying fuels despite RH remaining above critical
thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next several days.
Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much
of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for
more information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   59  80  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   60  82  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        55  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  79  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  78  57  83 /  10  10  10   0
Cross City    60  81  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  80  63  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...IG3