020
FXUS62 KTAE 250122
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
922 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The forecast look on track for tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an impressive late-summer upper
trough digging across the Lower MS Valley. This feature will serve
multiple purposes - large-scale lift for downstream isolated to
scattered showers/storms; pushing a reinforcing front from the NW;
kicker system for the stagnant frontal boundary that has been quasi-
stationary over the region the past couple of days. As the trough
continues its trek, the axis of greatest moisture, attendant
convection, and primary front should steadily shift east to SE in
response through the near-term period.

Highest convective coverage should remain confined to the I-10
corridor near the seabreeze convergence zone with prevailing NW
flow the rest of this afternoon & early evening. Additional cells
have also been moving in from the Wiregrass. Expect this activity
to largely diminish a couple hrs or so after sunset outside of
parts in the FL Big Bend/South-Central GA. Patchy fog also appears
possible early tomorrow morning, especially east of Tallahassee.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low 70s (potentially
localized upper 60s around DHN-BLK-ABY).

A NW to SE moisture gradient will sharpen further on Monday with
adequate Precipitable Waters supportive for convective development
only along the seabreeze front in the afternoon. Prevailing north
winds should keep any showers/storms pinned closest to the coast -
25 to 40% PoP range south of I-10. High temperatures are expected to
rebound a bit to the low 90s (peak heat indices up to the low
100s).

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Monday night the cold front will be positioned near the state
line with the pesky front thats been hanging around the past few
days will transition south into the north central Gulf. The cold
front will get hung up near the coast Tuesday awaiting a
reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air as well as a shortwave
trough from the central Plains. As the upper trough begins to
amplify Wednesday, this will help push the front through the area
in its entirety Wednesday night as northerly winds take hold as a
1025mb surface high moves through the upper midwest and Ohio
Valley. A wedge of dry air in the 700-300mb layer envelopes the
Tri-State region mid to late week which helps reduce rain chances
to 10-20% mainly in the eastern Big Bend while the rest of the
area should remain dry. Low to mid 50 dewpoints make a visit into
the Flint River Valley and Wiregrass Tues-Thu which will make the
low to mid 80s for highs that much bearable by August standards.
Of course, a little warmer and humid towards the coast with upper
80s to near 90 for highs.

Easterly flow sets up Friday and Saturday as the surface high
moves off the east coast. Moisture will begin its slow return and
rain chances slowly increase first in the Florida Big Bend then
towards the Panhandle in more favored seabreeze zones Saturday.
Highs each day will remain in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints
back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for most of this cycle with the
exception of a few hours of MVFR visibilities at TLH, VLD and ABY.
Confidence is lower for ABY. Convective coverage will be limited
to the vicinity of a stationary front. A period of thunderstorms
is indicated for ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Buoy 42036 and nearby ship reports indicate that winds were a bit
higher than previously indicated and given the lack on convection
in the area, we bumped up the wind and wave forecast just a bit
for our southern marine zones.

The pesky stationary boundary that has meandered around the coast
and Gulf waters will gradually move south as an upstream cold
front moves into the southeast US. That front will reach the Gulf
waters Monday night into Tuesday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will remain until a reinforcing shot of drier air
finally pushes the fronts into the central Gulf Wednesday. Little
chances for rain is anticipated as northerly flow and drier air
sets up Wednesday and Thursday. Brief rounds of cautionary winds
could occur in waters west of Apalachicola during the overnight
hours Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night. As surface high pressure
moves by to the north late week, winds begin to clock to the
northeast and east with moisture returning as well as chances for
rainfall late week and into next weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A post-frontal airmass dries the Tri-State area out via northerly
winds and essentially shuts down rain chances the first half of
this week. The main exception is the seabreeze zone along/near
the coast on Monday. Widespread min RH values are forecast to be
in the 40s (isolated upper 30s) Monday-Wednesday! Good to fair
dispersions are expected through Tuesday before briefly becoming
high in pockets Wednesday afternoon. Overall, there are minimal
fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A drier pattern is in store for much of this week as a cooler
(for August standards) and drier airmass moves in behind a fall-
like cold front with northerly flow. Little rainfall is expected
which will allow the area to dry out from the recent wet pattern.
Towards the end of the week, easterly flow returns as well as
moisture levels and a gradual increase to rain chances favoring
the Big Bend and seabreeze zones in the Florida panhandle

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  94  69  91 /  20  20   0  10
Panama City   75  90  71  91 /  20  30   0  10
Dothan        71  92  65  88 /  30   0   0   0
Albany        71  92  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  93  66  90 /  20  10   0   0
Cross City    74  91  72  93 /  30  40  10  20
Apalachicola  76  90  73  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl