373
FXUS62 KTAE 310938
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

The tail end of a weakening cold front will pass across the region
tonight, accompanied by a broken line of showers and a few
thunderstorms. A drier air and somewhat cooler air mass will
trickle in from the north on Saturday. From Saturday night through
next Thursday, high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep
the weather warm and free of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

A cold front looks to move through the region today as an area of
low pressure across the Great Lakes region drags it eastward. When
compared to yesterday`s forecast, it looks like we`ll see slightly
more moisture return across the region with mid 60s dew points
reaching our northern AL and GA counties. After sunrise, low level
stratus is expected to mix out with clearing skies late this morning
into the afternoon. High res models still anticipate this front to
contain most of the activity along a narrow corridor, right along
the front. With large scale forcing for ascent well to our north,
the front will act as the localized forcing mechanism. Although,
with clearing skies and PWATs increasing ahead of the line, we might
see a few light showers ahead of the front. The SPC maintains the
western two-thirds of the region within a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather. With an LLJ of around 40-50 kts there`s the
possibility for some of that high momentum air to be transferred
down to the surface by convection or within the clear skies ahead of
the front via turbulence in the PBL. With shear like this there`s
also the possibility for organized convection along the front, with
a brief tornado or two being possible.

This cold front will be progressive, moving from west to east across
the entire CWA, entering the area late this morning and exiting by
the evening. Model guidance suggests that this system will be
diurnally driven, given that instability is lacking. Solar heating
ahead of the line will be a determining factor on how robust this
line will be. After sunset, instability quickly drops off and the
line weakens to mostly showers. Generally-speaking this line will
consist of showers with embedded thunderstorms where localized
conditions are favorable.

Throughout the overnight hours we`ll see skies clear behind the cold
front as high pressure begins to move into the region.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 70s with
overnight lows generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

By sunrise Saturday, a weakening cold front will already be down
over Central Florida. Our service area will have drier northerly
flow. A downward trend in temperatures will occur, compared with
today, but high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s will
still run about 5-10 degrees above normal.

On Saturday night, a surface ridge will expand down the coastal
plain east of the Appalachians, settling southward into south
Georgia and north Florida on Sunday night. Under the influence of
high pressure, rain-free weather will continue, but the turn to
northeast and easterly low-level flow will get a warming trend
underway after sunrise on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

A strong 500 mb ridge across Cuba and the Bahamas will expand
northward through the eastern Gulf early next week. Meanwhile, a
strong, consolidated mid-latitude jet stream will remain well to
our north. This will prevent any cold fronts from pushing this far
south. 500 mb heights over the tri-state region will be near or
in excess of 90th percentile values for much of next week, so
temperatures will run well above normal throughout next week. A
surface ridge axis will nose in from the Atlantic across far north
Florida, keeping the air mass stable with a lack of rain.
A cold front looks to move through the region today as an area of
low pressure across the Great Lakes region drags it eastward. When
compared to yesterday`s forecast, it looks like we`ll see slightly
more moisture return across the region with mid 60s dew points
reaching our northern AL and GA counties. After sunrise, low level
stratus is expected to mix out with clearing skies late this morning
into the afternoon. High res models still anticipate this front to
contain most of the activity along a narrow corridor, right along
the front. With large scale forcing for ascent well to our north,
the front will act as the localized forcing mechanism. Although,
with clearing skies and PWATs increasing ahead of the line, we might
see a few light showers ahead of the front. The SPC maintains the
western two-thirds of the region within a marginal risk (level 1 of
5) for severe weather. With an LLJ of around 40-50 kts there`s the
possibility for some of that high momentum air to be transferred
down to the surface by convection or within the clear skies ahead of
the front via turbulence in the PBL. With shear like this there`s
also the possibility for organized convection along the front, with
a brief tornado or two being possible.

This cold front will be progressive, moving from west to east across
the entire CWA, entering the area late this morning and exiting by
the evening. Model Guidance suggests that this system will be
diurnally driven, given that instability is lacking. Solar heating
ahead of the line will be a determining factor on how robust this
line will be. After sunset, instability quickly drops off and the
line weakens to mostly showers. Generally-speaking this line will
consist of showers with embedded thunderstorms where localized
conditions are favorable.

Throughout the overnight hours we`ll see skies clear behind the cold
front as high pressure begins to move into the region.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 70s with
overnight lows generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.Given the
coolness of nearshore Gulf waters right now, any bout of 60+
dewpoints next week will come with a risk of fog, particularly sea
fog near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Cigs and vsbys are expected to continue decreasing over the next
few hours as patchy to widespread fog and BKN to OVC cigs develop
ahead of our next frontal system later today. Conditions will
generally bounce around today between MVFR to IFR with LIFR
possible in heavy rainfall or dense fog. Once the front moves
through later this afternoon into the evening we`ll see conditions
improve to VFR during the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

An ASCAT satellite pass late Thursday evening showed southerly
breezes of 15 to 19 knots over the more distant waters south of
the Panhandle, tapering to nearly calm winds over the eastern half
of Apalachee Bay. Will therefore end the Small Craft Advisory over
the western waters early.

From CWF synopsis...Moderate to fresh southerly breezes will
precede the passage of a a weakening cold front tonight. Be ready
for patches of sea fog over the cool nearshore waters. A shift to
moderate northerlies is expected behind the front, but then a
high pressure ridge will arrive from the north late Saturday,
bringing a quick decrease in winds. A surface ridge will then
become established from the coastal Carolinas to the Florida
Panhandle from Sunday through Tuesday, so merely gentle and
sometimes variable breezes will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

A cold front is expected to move through the districts this
afternoon into tonight. A line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Some gusty and erratic
winds may accompany stronger storms especially along and west of
the Flint/Apalachicola rivers. Transport winds will also increase
though dispersions remain below high thresholds. Dry conditions
begin Saturday and continuing into mid week next week. With high
pressure moving in over the weekend, dispersions will be low to
borderline low as transport winds decrease behind the front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 438 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  51  71  48 /  30  80   0  10
Panama City   71  50  69  48 /  80  50   0   0
Dothan        75  46  67  45 /  80  30   0   0
Albany        76  47  68  43 /  60  70   0   0
Valdosta      79  51  72  47 /  10  80   0   0
Cross City    75  54  75  48 /   0  50   0   0
Apalachicola  68  50  66  50 /  50  70   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Haner