076
FXUS62 KTAE 251711
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
111 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today from Noon to 6 PM ET for the
  Suwannee Valley of FL and GA where heat indices up to 110 F are
  expected. The heat will affect those without adequate cooling
  or hydration.

- Hazardous heat returns by Monday and continues into midweek with
  highs in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees. There is a Medium
  (50 to 70%) chance of reaching Heat Advisory criteria. There is
  a Low (25%) chance of Extreme HeatRisk, which affects everyone.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Highs are forecast to be in the middle 90s across much of the
region today away from the Gulf Coast. With dew points in the
lower to middle 70s, heat indices will range from 102-107 F
across much of the region. A more solid area of heat indices
up to 110 F is expected in the Suwannee Valley of FL and GA,
where a Heat Advisory (criteria: heat index 108-112 F) is in
effect from Noon-6PM ET today. The heat will affect those
without adequate cooling or hydration.

High pressure shifts south of the region today with Northwest
flow aloft getting underway and continuing through the weekend.
While will tend to pin the seabreeze closer to the coast which
will limit its convective forcing ability, mid-level shortwave
energy and PWATs increasing to over 2 inches (well above climo)
will lead to more widespread afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms today and Sunday, moving Southeastward across
the region. Cannot rule out some stronger storms with isolated
damaging wind gusts and small hail.

From the early to middle part of next week, Northwest flow
continues aloft and PWATs decrease. This will set the stage for
increasing heat, as shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected
to be minimal until Wednesday or Thursday, when we will have to
watch for Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) to the Northwest
given the flow regime. Hazardous heat returns by Monday and
continues into midweek with highs in the mid-90s to around 100
degrees. There is a Medium (50 to 70%) chance of reaching Heat
Advisory criteria. There is a Low (25%) chance of Extreme
HeatRisk, which affects everyone.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Isolated pulse thunderstorms are possible this afternoon for all
TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, however MVFR is
possible if thunderstorms move directly over the terminal. Storms
should diminish following sunset. The ABY terminal may see some
lingering storms moreso into the overnight hours. Winds are
expected to shift to light northwesterly flow Sunday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again for Sunday
afternoon, but after the end of this TAF period, hence not shown
in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Winds will become onshore today with the seabreeze. On Sunday and
Monday, Westerly winds will become established over the waters
with a lesser tendency for a seabreeze. By Tuesday, winds shift
to the Southwest and remain in place through Wednesday. Gentle to
moderate breezes are expected over the next several days with
significant wave heights around 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening
and again on Sunday, with erratic and gusty winds possible in the
vicinity of any storms. The heat will be a concern today with high
temperatures in the middle 90s and heat index values ranging from
102 to 107 degrees, except up to 110 degrees in the Suwanee Valley
of FL and GA. Compared to previous days, the seabreeze will remain
pinned closer to the coast today and again on Sunday. On Sunday,
elevated Northwest transport winds and seasonably high mixing
heights will contribute to pockets of high dispersion away from the
Gulf Coast. Looking ahead, drier weather is expected early next week
with a return of hazardous heat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases this weekend, especially
today. There is a marginal (Level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rain
today mainly across our AL and GA counties. While isolated flash
flooding cannot be ruled out, the main concern is minor flooding of
areas of poor drainage. There are no riverine flooding concerns.
A drier pattern sets up for early next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  95  76  96 /  10  40  20  20
Panama City   79  92  80  94 /  10  20  20  20
Dothan        75  94  75  98 /  20  30  10  10
Albany        75  94  75  98 /  20  40  20  10
Valdosta      76  95  75  97 /  20  40  30  10
Cross City    77  95  77  95 /  10  40  50  50
Apalachicola  80  92  81  92 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ019-028-029-034-
     134.

     High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ160-161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF