126
FXUS62 KTAE 221702
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
102 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Adjusted the temperature down a few degrees in the Western FL Panhandle
and in our AL counties to better match current observations. Other
than that, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Morning fog and low stratus burns off later this morning once the
nocturnal inversion breaks. A high pressure ridge anchored across
the Western Atlantic maintains unseasonably warm conditions with low-
level SW flow, and afternoon seabreeze. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary crawls into the MS Valley today, but decelerates/stalls
well to our NW. A southern stream shortwave/ripples may provide
enough lift to squeeze out a few showers (15-20% chance) and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm mainly along the Wiregrass Region.

High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-upper 80s away from
the immediate coast under an otherwise mix of sun and clouds. It is
a possible that a few locations around the I-75 corridor reach 90
(e.g., Valdosta). For tonight, look for another round of fog/low
stratus developing from Southern AL/Western FL Panhandle, then
spreading east towards sunrise. Low temperatures in the low 60s are
about 6-10 degrees warmer than normal for late April.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Warm conditions are expected to continue throughout the next week
with onshore flow prevailing across the area. A few showers and
storms may be possible across the northern portions of the area
periodically this week, but overall coverage is expected to be
sparse. Mid-level ridging over Florida looks weaker than previous
forecasts, which may allow for a bit more shower and thunderstorm
coverage and a slight down trend in forecast high temperatures.
Highs this week are generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with max
heat indices pretty close to the ambient temperatures. A weak
front is forecast to sag southward into the area from the
north/northeast late in the weekend, which may create a slight
uptick in convection and knock a couple of degrees off forecast
highs. However, this change will probably be negligible for most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Another round of fog and low stratus is expected tonight, with
highest chances for development at KECP, KDHN, and KTLH. At these
sites, ceilings are forecasted to lower into LIFR territory in the
08Z-12Z time range. At KABY and KVLD, chances for fog development
are very low. Calm to light winds are forecasted through the TAF
period at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Light and gentle breezes are expected over the northeast Gulf
through Wednesday evening, but 2 to 3 foot swell originating from
the southeast Gulf will continue through today before subsiding
on Wednesday. Nearshore afternoon seabreezes may result in locally
higher seas, especially near the inlets. On Thursday night, fresh
southeast breezes may increase wave heights into the 2 to 3 foot
range by Friday. Some overnight and morning fog is also possible
each day closer to the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

The main fire concerns continue to revolve around daily chances for
fog, high afternoon dispersions over parts of SW GA, and little to
no rainfall. A persistent moist southerly wind keeps RH values above
critical thresholds despite lacking precipitation. Diurnal
seabreezes are also expected, leading to locally gusty winds, a
sudden directional shift, and sharp rises in humidity. Lastly,
conditions will be very warm through early next week with high
temperatures at or near 90 degrees, especially Friday-Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

No flooding is expected for the upcoming week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  63  90  63 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   80  65  83  64 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        84  63  87  63 /  10  10  30  10
Albany        85  63  88  64 /   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      89  65  90  65 /   0   0  20  20
Cross City    86  63  89  63 /   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield