656
FXUS62 KTAE 231722
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1222 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

An upper level trough currently progressing through Texas has
spawned a weak area of low pressure in the western Gulf. This system
will move eastward and affect our region over the next 24 hours.
Rain will start to overspread the area late in the day from west to
east with rain continuing through the overnight hours. Amounts are
expected to range from around a quarter inch across the northern
counties to near 1 inch close to the coast. Thunderstorms are not
expected over land with a stable environment in place. High
temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across
the western counties to the upper 60s across the southeast big bend.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

A Gulf Low across the eastern Gulf will make its way into the FL
Peninsula throughout Monday. Rain chances wind down across the
region with our Gulf waters and the SE FL Big Bend possibly seeing
some lingering showers into the afternoon and evening hours. Monday
night into Tuesday we`ll see the return of benign conditions as high
pressure settles over the region. Mostly clear skies expected
Tuesday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. Expect overnight
lows generally in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

On Wednesday we`ll start to see a clock around from generally
northerly flow to more west-southwesterly flow. This will allow some
modest moisture return ahead of another shortwave on Thursday. PWATs
climb to over an inch, but remain under 1.5 inches. Current guidance
shows favorable upper-level support for ascent but not much shear or
instability. With dew points struggling to make it into the low to
mid 50s, convection may also be suppressed or may be limited to
shallow storms along the Gulf Coast. Overall not much is expected
from this system outside of some brief downpours, precip
accumulations are expected to remain under half an inch.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 70s, except for on Friday
where they dip into the mid 60s behind the cold front. Expect
overnight lows to generally be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions will be dropping to MVFR/IFR throughout the day as
rain and low clouds move in from the west. Conditions may drop to
LIFR late in the period, most notably near KABY and KVLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

A disturbance will move across the Gulf this evening, resulting in
an increase of northeasterly winds and widespread rain this
afternoon and evening. By Monday, this system will move east of the
marine area with a return of relatively tranquil conditions for the
waters through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the marine area on
Thursday with an increase in offshore winds in its wake. Cautionary
conditions are expected with both disturbances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Rain is forecast to arrive late in the day and tonight before
exiting on Monday. Rainfall totals on the order of 0.25" to 1" are
expected, with the higher amounts mainly confined to the Florida
districts. Otherwise, light and variable transport winds are
forecast today, then becoming easterly on Monday. MinRH values will
increase for the next couple of days before drier weather arrives
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 637 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

While the region will get rainfall tonight into Monday, amounts are
expected to range from around a quarter inch across the northern
counties to near 1 inch close to the coast, so there are no flood
concerns with this system. Moreover, Thursday`s system should
deliver little if any rainfall as the front moves through, so do
not expect any flood concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  50  62  49 /  40 100  40  10
Panama City   60  51  64  49 /  80 100  30  10
Dothan        58  47  63  45 /  50  90  30  10
Albany        60  47  61  44 /  20  70  30  10
Valdosta      64  49  61  49 /  20  80  40  20
Cross City    69  53  65  51 /  20 100  60  20
Apalachicola  60  53  61  51 /  70 100  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey