911
FXUS62 KTAE 201016
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
616 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The mid-level high slides overhead today with surface high pressure
very near our area. This will result in what will likely be the
hottest day in terms of air temperatures of this stretch. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s. A few spots in the FL Big Bend and south
central GA may reach 100. With the mid level and surface high
nearby, there will be good opportunity for moisture to mix out. So,
it may not be oppressively humid, but still dangerously hot
regardless. Given the continued heat, have issued another Heat
Advisory for nearly all of our FL Counties and along and east of the
Flint River in Georgia for heat index values of 108-112. There is
some uncertainty in this though. If the CAMs that show more
aggressive mixing verify, then we may not see widespread areas reach
heat index values of 108. Regardless, this level of heat is still
dangerous, and everyone should continue to take necessary heat
precautions. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in the A/C or
shade, wear light clothing, and check on the elderly, kids, and
pets. There also won`t be much relief during the overnight hours
with lows in the mid 70s to near 80 tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Hot and muggy conditions are likely to continue at the beginning
of the upcoming week as the upper level ridge to our west
continues to influence the pattern. Heat indices are likely to
remain around advisory levels on Monday and again on Tuesday,
mostly due to the more delayed onset of showers and storms thanks
to the upper level ridge and drier mid-level air working into the
region.

By Tuesday the ridge begins to break down slowly as a weak trough
begins to drop down from the northeast. Much of the guidance
retains another round hot temperatures like Monday, but convective
activity will likely be greater and the potential for a more
active afternoon does raise some questions if locations will hit
heat advisory levels before storms fire off and begin cooling
things back down.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Main forecast questions for the middle to latter part of the
upcoming week revolve around another broad area of low pressure
moving east to west across the state or northern Gulf. Similar to
last week, this broad area of low pressure could develop along
the southern end of a decaying frontal system. With rounds of
disorganized shower and storms coverage each afternoon, some weak
development can`t be ruled out as this feature drifts west into
the northern Gulf. Regardless of any development, a return to more
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances is likely, especially
on Wednesday and Thursday of this upcoming week. This will cool
conditions back down in the lower 90s and likely give the area a
reprieve from the recent hot conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Some SCT to
occasionally BKN MVFR cigs have been impacting ECP, and this will
remain possible during the next couple hours. Additionally, a bit
of patchy fog has developed around TLH, which may cause a brief
dip to MVFR vsbys. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will develop this afternoon
near the terminals (mainly ECP and TLH), but chances are too low
to include in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Favorable boating conditions will continue into the start of next
week. Southerly winds will become westerly overnight, at about
5-10 kts. With the afternoon seabreezes, winds may gust 15-20 kts
in our nearshore waters through the weekend into next week. Seas
are expected to be tranquil at 1-2 feet through the week.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms return by Tuesday and
especially by Wednesday/Thursday as a weak area of low pressure
potentially moves into the Gulf. Some development and an increase
in winds/seas can`t be ruled out at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

High pressure slides across our area and to the west over the next
few days. Only a few stray showers or storms are expected today, but
more typical coverage of showers and storms is expected Monday and
Tuesday as moisture begins to increase. With high mixing heights and
generally west to northwest transport winds around 10-15 mph,
dispersions will be high away from the coast through Tuesday.
Otherwise, dangerous heat will continue for the next several days
with highs in the upper 90s and heat index values of 105-112.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Drier conditions are expected into Monday but a wetter pattern
likely begins to develop for the rest of the upcoming week on
Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure drifts east to west across
the northern Gulf. Widespread rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are
possible across Florida with lesser amounts across Alabama and
Georgia. Typical of our summertime storms, widespread flooding
rains are not expected but localized heavy downpours could produce
brief localized flooding, especially in any locations which have
been wetter than normal this summer.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   98  79  96  78 /  20  10  50  20
Panama City   94  80  93  80 /  10  10  40  30
Dothan        97  77  96  76 /  20  10  30  10
Albany        98  78  96  77 /  20  10  40  20
Valdosta      98  79  96  78 /  20  10  50  30
Cross City    97  78  96  77 /  10  10  50  40
Apalachicola  94  80  92  80 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     through this evening for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ125>131-144>148-155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs