747
FXUS62 KTAE 230735
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
235 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Surface high pressure will slide eastward across the area today
and tonight with clear skies and light winds. Highs today will
generally be in the 60s with overnight lows ranging from the mid
30s across cooler inland locations to the mid to upper 40s along
the immediate coast. Some frost cannot be ruled out again across
the cooler sheltered locations early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Surface high pressure will be centered over the Tri-State region
for the start of the term, continuing our cool temperatures and
dry conditions. As the surface high traverses east over the
peninsula, an upper level trough extending from southern Canada
will bring a cold front to the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday. This
cold front is expected to weaken as it approaches the region,
diminishing our chances for precipitation. PoPs are limited to
less than 10% for our SE Alabama and eastern FL Panhandle
counties. Behind the front, there won`t be much cold air advection
so, temperatures through this time will be returning to the mid
to upper 70s and low 80s for the afternoon highs, and morning lows
will moderate into the 50s.

For Thanksgiving, we can expect another cold front to move
through the region as an upper level shortwave trough moves
quickly across the country. This front will be much more potent in
bringing us colder temperatures and better chances for rain.
Showers and thunderstorms may be possible for Thursday. There are
signals that there may be some instability and shear which will
allow for a few thunderstorms to become strong to severe; however
it is questionable if the dynamics will be in place for this to
occur, and the global models are not in enough agreement for there
to be much confidence. PoPs for Thursday into Friday range from
20%-40%.

Temperatures will begin to fall Thursday night into Friday
morning with lows in the low 50s and upper 40s. Highs on Friday
will be in the low to mid 60s with the cooling trend expected to
continue into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected to
prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Winds and seas will continue to decrease today as high pressure
settles over the region today into Sunday. Tranquil boating
conditions are expected through the weekend into the start of the
week. Winds will be light and become southerly as the high
pressure traverses east by Monday and will be clock around to the
north following a weak cold front by midweek. Winds are expected
to increase to a moderate breeze by Thanksgiving ahead of a
stronger cold front with the slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next few days with
light winds and relative humidity values remaining above critical
levels. Dispersions will be on the low side on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days. There
are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  40  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  71  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        63  39  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        64  37  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  39  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    67  36  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  49  69  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034.

GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery