549
FXUS62 KTAE 141018
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
618 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 612 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Moderate to locally dangerous heat-related impacts are expected
  today and Tuesday, with heat index values generally reaching
  100-108 degrees, especially over the Florida counties.

- Small craft advisories are likely Tuesday night through
  Thursday as well as high risk for rip currents.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through next Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Upper level ridging will build throughout the southeast US through
midweek, with subsidence strengthening and drier air in the mid
levels leading to PWATs dropping to 1.3-1.5" (a little higher near
the coast). Rain chances today and Tuesday will be shoved to the
coast and offshore then generally offshore Wednesday. In the
meantime, surface ridging develops down the Appalachians into the
northern Gulf clocking low level flow from northwesterly to drier
northeasterly flow. In fact, PWATs Wednesday and Thursday will be
under an inch and little, if any, rain chances expected. Therefore,
a mostly dry forecast is anticipated today through Thursday for much
of the inland areas.

The ridge retreats westward beginning Thursday as an upper low
rounds the east side of the upper ridge moving west and into the
Gulf Friday through Sunday. Low level flow will gradually become
onshore next weekend with moisture and higher PWATs returning. With
this, rain chances start to return first across the Florida Big Bend
Friday then higher rain chances work northward across the area
Saturday and Sunday.

Highs today and Tuesday will be the hottest of the period. Mid to
upper 90s are forecast as the drier air works in but also help to
lower the dewpoints towards the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices
will generally be 100-107F. Slightly higher dewpoints will reside
near the coast so heat indices may briefly exceed 107F locally in
these areas. As the northeasterly flow kicks in beginning Wednesday
and as the ridge moves westward, highs will be not as hot with
readings in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As the upper low moves by,
additional cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs in the lower
90s into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. A little bit
of patchy fog has developed around VLD, and this may last for the
next couple hours. Otherwise, generally light N-NE winds are
expected today, except at ECP where the sea breeze will turn winds
more W-SW this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light to gentle northwest winds will be in place today and tonight
with high pressure located in the north central Gulf. By Tuesday,
surface ridging will stretch through the Appalachians south into the
northern Gulf, causing our winds to become easterly and strengthen a
bit. Fresh to strong easterly winds develop Tuesday night and
persist into Thursday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed
during this time frame. Drier air through late week will reduce
coverage of storms until an upper low translating the northern Gulf
brings better chances this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

High pressure will build into the southeast and strengthen into mid
week. Drier air associated with the high will act to reduce rain
chances much of the week. High temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 90s today and Tuesday with heat indices reaching the low to
mid 100s with a low chance of exceeding 107F in coastal locations.
Transport winds increase Tuesday leading to pockets of high
dispersions through the wiregrass region south into the Florida
districts into Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

No flash or riverine flooding expected this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  75  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   93  77  94  75 /  10   0  20   0
Dothan        95  73  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        96  73  95  70 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      95  73  93  71 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    94  74  93  74 /  30  20  40   0
Apalachicola  91  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl