041
FXUS62 KTAE 220051
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
851 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Only a few minor tweaks needed to the PoPs this evening to hold
slight chance PoPs for the eastern zones for a few more hours, as
a few showers and storms have continued to bubble up into the
early evening. This activity should diminish over the next hour or
two with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The mid-level ridge that has dominated our large-scale weather
pattern and that is responsible for the dangerous heat of late will
continue shifting west and begin to break down on Tuesday. This will
position our CWA on the northeastern periphery of the ridge and
allow generally north/northwesterly flow to establish. This setup
introduces some uncertainty in how hot it will be able to get during
the day on Tuesday. On one hand, surface temperatures will again
easily climb into the upper 90s across the region. On the other
hand, drier low/mid level air will filter through in response to the
more northerly flow which would limit how high apparent temperatures
can climb - especially in our northwestern counties. Additionally,
the expectation of afternoon showers and thunderstorms adds more
complexity to the upper limits of heat tomorrow. Heat advisories
will again be needed for much of the CWA. Remember to stay hydrated,
take frequent breaks in the A/C or shade, wear light clothing, and
check on the elderly, kids, pets, and other vulnerable people.

In regards to convection, PoPs are expected to climb on Tuesday -
mostly in response to the ridge exiting and degrading, reducing
large scale subsidence. Drier air and thus increased DCAPE values
resulting from northerly flow introduces some concerns for gusty
winds in isolated storms. In general, storms will move north-south,
with the greatest coverage in our eastern counties farthest removed
from the ridge and where moisture will be greatest. The seabreeze`s
inland progression will likely be limited on Tuesday as northerly
flow helps pin it closer to the coast. Still, it is an area of
focused convergence to watch for enhanced thunderstorm development.
For now, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our northeastern
counties where the greatest favorability in a wind-driven Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Ridging begins to break down Wednesday as an area of low pressure
(Formerly known as 93L) once again makes it`s way through from the
east, having come full circle around the high pressure that`s been
sitting over us as of late. Afternoon high temperatures will be
notably cooler, expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through
Friday. Moisture will also get another notable influx, pushing PWAT
values into the 2 to 2.5 inch range. This will lead to some rather
efficient rain makers for the last half of the work week, having the
potential to cause some flooding concerns under slower moving or
training storms.

Temperatures will then begin to increase this weekend, as high
pressure once again builds into the area, decreasing rain chances
from east to west as the low exits. The potential in place to bring
near heat advisory levels back to the area late in the period, a
similar pattern in place to the prior weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the overnight hours at
all terminals as evening convection wanes. Convective coverage
expected to be more widespread on Tuesday afternoon, especially
for the eastern terminals. KABY, KVLD, and KTLH mostly likely to
be impacted, with activity likely to begin around 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Favorable boating conditions will continue. With the afternoon
seabreezes, winds may gust 15-20 kts in our nearshore waters
through the weekend into next week. Seas are expected to be
tranquil at 1-2 feet through the week. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms return by Tuesday, and especially by
Wednesday/Thursday as a weak area of low pressure potentially
moves into the Gulf. Some development and an increase in
winds/seas can`t be ruled out at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Overall, fire weather concerns remain low the next several days.
Dangerous heat will continue through Tuesday with highs in the
upper 90s and heat index values of 105-112. Westerly transport
winds today will turn more northerly during the day Tuesday along
with high dispersions. High pressure moving west of the area will
allow moisture to stream back into the region. Rain chances
increase some Tuesday before increasing even more Wednesday and
Thursday as ample moisture moves over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Rain chances continue to improve through the week, and the WPC
includes our region in Marginal (level 1 of 4) risks through the
week. Widespread showers and thunderstorms return by Tuesday and
especially by Wednesday/Thursday as a weak area of low pressure
potentially moves into the Gulf. Overall, about 2-4 inches of rain
is expected through the forecast period. While widespread
flooding rain is not expected, the high moisture content of the
airmass and any training of storms could yield a quick 3 to 5
inches of rainfall for isolated locations. This could cause brief
flooding in poor drainage areas, low-lying roads, or across urban
environments.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  97  77  92 /  10  70  40  90
Panama City   81  95  79  93 /  20  50  50  90
Dothan        77  97  76  94 /  10  50  30  80
Albany        77  99  75  92 /  20  60  40  80
Valdosta      77  98  76  92 /  20  70  50  90
Cross City    77  95  75  91 /  50  80  70  90
Apalachicola  81  93  79  89 /  30  50  60  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Tuesday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Humphreys
LONG TERM....Humphreys
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys