694
FXUS62 KTAE 080008
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
808 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

In the wake of a shortwave passage this morning, a more stable air
mass has been in place northwest of the FL Big Bend today with
limited convection thus far. Convective coverage should gradually
increase northwest of the FL Big Bend, but should be limited,
especially north into Southeast AL and Southwest GA. The main
concern is gusty winds, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible,
as SPC maintains a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather
across the region. Cannot rule out poor drainage/localized flash
flooding in far southern GA into the FL Big Bend this evening,
especially urban centers. Activity diurnally driven and decreases
shortly after sunset.

On Sunday, a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather is in
place across much of Southeast AL and Southwest GA. A complex of
thunderstorms (MCS) will be diving southward toward the region
closer to sunrise. CAMs thus far are trending more aggressive w/
this activity at least making into our northern tier of AL/GA
counties around 12Z, including the HRRR, ARW, and NSSL. At this
time, Bulk Shear is 30 to 40 knots with CAPE around 1k J/kg, so
if this activity makes it into the region early Sunday morning,
there would be the potential for damaging winds. This activity
will gradually weaken Sunday morning as it moves southeastward.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop with the sea-
breeze moving northward during the afternoon and evening, as
well as along the cold pool further north into AL/GA. Damaging
wind gusts will continue to be the primary threat, along with
small to possibly medium-sized hail, given steeper mid-level
lapse rates. Cannot rule out additional poor drainage/localized
flash flooding on Sunday from southern GA into the FL Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Showers and storms are forecast to be ongoing to start the period.
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) from Sunday afternoon will be
in the process of sliding east, moving out of our area later Sunday
night into early Monday morning. Meanwhile, another MCS is forecast
to develop across Oklahoma and northern Texas Sunday evening before
moving across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana and into
Mississippi early Monday morning. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty with regards to how far east this 2nd MCS will make it.
Still, any lingering boundaries from Sunday night`s MCS could be a
focal point for additional showers and storms, even out if the MCS
in Mississippi fizzles or turns more north as it rounds the base of
an H5 trough over the eastern third of the country. While deep layer
shear will be a tad lower, around 20 to 30 knots, during the day
Monday, we`ll still need to be on the lookout for strong to severe
thunderstorms during the day Monday. As a result, the Storm
Prediction Center has southeastern Alabama, portions of southwestern
Georgia and the far western Florida panhandle under a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather during the day Monday. Again, this
is a tad more of a conditional threat compared to Sunday, but one
we`ll definitely keep an eye on. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
concerns, but some large hail will also be possible. Showers and
storms should start to weaken Monday night as we lose the daytime
heating and better lift/dynamics pushes east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances remain in place much of
next week. The H5 trough from the weekend will be in the process of
lifting out. A general weakness between an H5 ridge near Bermuda and
one in the western Gulf is forecast overmuch of the Southeast.
Combine this with Precipitable Water Values (PWATs) in the upper
quartile for mid-June and we`ll keep 60 to 70% chances for
showers/storms in the forecast each afternoon; some of the storms
could contain gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph thanks to DCAPE values
generally between 700 to 900 J/kg. As was the case the past few
mornings, tropical downpours will also be possible along the coast
in the mornings before the seabreeze pushes inland.

As far as temperatures go, they`ll generally hang out in the lower
to middle 70s each morning before warming into the lower to middle
90s each day. Heat indices will generally be between 100 to 105
degrees each afternoon, but a few locations may experience heat
indices to 108 to 110 degrees. In other words, Heat Advisories may
be necessary for portions of our area later in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least
midnight. Between midnight and sunrise tomorrow morning cigs and
vsbys have the potential to lower to MVFR at all terminals, as
cigs lower and patchy fog develops. After daybreak another day of
showers and thunderstorms is expected across the region. MVFR to
IFR conditions could be briefly possible in and around showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A surface high sprawling across the southwestern Atlantic and
eastern Gulf continues to bring light to moderate southwesterly
winds to our waters into the first half of next week. Seas will
generally run between 2 to 3 feet. Diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the weekend along with
the potential for a morning waterspout or two just off the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A wet pattern remains in place with relatively high minimum
afternoon humidities and light winds. Only concerns through the next
few days will be dispersions on the higher side and gusty/erratic
winds in the vicinity of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Not a whole lot of change to the going forecast thinking on the
hydro side of things. Tropical downpours are expected off and on,
especially across Florida, this afternoon, with additional showers
and storms expected to bubble up this afternoon in Georgia and
Alabama. Precipitable water values (PWATs) remain between 1.7" to
2.0" into early next week. There`s been no appreciable change to the
3hr Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) across most of the area with values
generally between 2.5" to 3.5" in the urban areas and 3" to 5.5"
elsewhere. These values are forecast to remain somewhat steady the
next few days. Still, isolated instances of flash flooding remain
possible Sunday, Monday, and, to a less extent, Tuesday; the best
opportunity for that will be over southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia where the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall over our Georgia
and Alabama counties.

Meanwhile, we remain in good shape on the area rivers and streams.
Gradual rises are expected as more and more rain falls across the
region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  93  75  91 /  20  60  40  80
Panama City   79  89  77  88 /  20  30  50  70
Dothan        76  93  72  88 /  40  60  60  80
Albany        75  92  72  89 /  30  60  50  80
Valdosta      75  94  74  91 /  20  50  40  80
Cross City    74  91  74  91 /  10  30  20  50
Apalachicola  78  88  78  87 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108-
     112.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Reese