676
FXUS62 KTAE 251034
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
634 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Mid-level shortwave perturbation moving northwestward through the
region this morning lead to gusty thunderstorms along the Forgotten
Coast with Alligator Point registering a wind gust to 55 mph at 1:45
AM ET. Otherwise, some patchy fog is likely this morning from the
Flint River Valley into Southeast AL, which should dissipate by 9 AM
ET.

SSE low to mid-level flow around 10 kts in the 1000-700 hPa layer is
favored today as subtropical ridging begins to build into the region
from the east. This results in the higher PoPs (50-70%) from the
Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers westward, tapering to around
30% from the I-75 corridor into the Suwanee Valley, which is below
guidance. PWATs from the Forgotten Coast and Emerald Coasts into the
FL Panhandle and Southeast AL will range from around 2.0-2.2 inches,
with the potential for cells to train along boundaries propagating
NNW around 10-15 knots. This may result in locally excessive rain in
these areas, so cannot rule out isolated flash flooding, particularly
those that saw heavy rainfall Thursday. Gusty winds are possible
with storms as well given 500 hPa winds around 20-25 kts, despite a
lack of DCAPE generally west of the I-75 corridor and Suwanee Valley.

For highs, trended toward the 25th percentile of guidance in SE AL
and the FL Panhandle due to cloud cover/precip and 75th percentile
east of the Flint River in GA and Suwanee Valley due to the lack of
precip/cloud cover. Dew points should lean slightly below guidance
factoring in turbulent mixing. This results in some locations near
the I-75 corridor and Suwanee Valley getting close to heat advisory
criteria (108F), but falling short enough to warrant an advisory.

A high risk of rip currents will continue at Emerald Coast beaches
today as onshore winds strengthen later this morning with surf
heights of 2-3 feet. All other local beaches should remain moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

596 dm mid level high will build into the southeast US this weekend
into early next week. PWATs during this period drop below 1.8 inches
into Monday. Through the column, strong subsidence takes hold with
dry air Sat-Mon in the 700-300mb layer. This will lead to reduced
rain chances, especially Sun-Mon, with little offering of relief
from the heat. In fact, rain chances Sunday and Monday are a mere 20-
30% and focused closer to the coast with northwest to north winds
pinning the seabreeze further south. As far as temperatures go,
highs are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s; the hottest
day appearing to be Monday where widespread low 100s are in the
forecast. Low temperatures will offer little to no cooling relief
with readings falling to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. As a
moist airmass remains in place in combination with the heat,
dangerous heat will occur with an extended period of afternoon heat
indices ranging from 107-118F each afternoon through mid week next
week. Anticipate heat advisories (heat indices 108-112F) in most
locations each day with some locations possibly necessitating an
extreme heat warning (heat indices 113F+).

Higher PWATs return Tuesday as the mid level high moves west
allowing a weak front to slide down the eastern seaboard. Rain
chances begin the climb back towards climatology mid/late as well as
highs a few degrees lower falling back to the mid to upper 90s.
Heat indices will still run from 105-111F Thursday so the dangerous
heat will continue into late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Highest chance of SHRA/TSRA today at DHN, ECP, and TLH, where TEMPO
groups were included w/the potential for MVFR. Elsewhere, expect
activity to remain west of VLD attm, with a PROB30 at ABY for TS.
SHRA/TSRA should diminish at the affected terminals by sunset. For
tonight, guidance is indicating the potential for fog late at DHN,
but the low probability precludes a mention toward the end of TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

High pressure will gradually build across the northern Gulf this
weekend with southeast winds today clocking around to northwesterly
this weekend. Drier air moves in as well which will reduce rain
chances into early next week. Favorable marine conditions are on tap
featuring wind speeds of 10-15 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet. Rain
chances return next week as the high pressure moves west and
increasing moisture arrives sparking daily showers and storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Drier weather gradually filters in this weekend along with
increasing heat. In fact, the potential for extreme heat is
increasing late this weekend into early next week. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will be greatest in from the FL Panhandle into
Southeast AL today and tomorrow, albeit with coverage decreasing
each day, along with the potential for erratic and gusty winds in
the vicinity of any storms. The main fire weather concern will be
the potential for low dispersions to persist into Saturday afternoon
in the FL Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

The highest rainfall chances shift west of the Apalachicola and
Flint rivers today which lines up with a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall from WPC. However, tropical moisture remains in place
throughout the area, at least for one more day. Isolated instances
of nuisance flooding could occur with some of the heavier rainfall.
High pressure builds in for the weekend into next week which will
reduce rain chances and allow the area to dry out somewhat.
Increased rain chances appear to return mid to late next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  76  95  77 /  40  10  30   0
Panama City   88  78  92  78 /  60  30  40   0
Dothan        90  74  94  75 /  60  30  30   0
Albany        95  74  96  76 /  30  20  10   0
Valdosta      96  75  97  77 /  20  20  20   0
Cross City    93  75  95  76 /  30  20  30   0
Apalachicola  87  79  90  78 /  50  20  30   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Scholl