330
FXUS62 KTAE 051801
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a dry air mass aloft with satellite
derived PWAT averaging 1.25" across the region today. Ridging
centered over the region moves northeast tonight into Saturday
as the region becomes sandwiched between a front approaching
from the northwest and a weak area of low pressure in the Gulf.
Meanwhile for tonight, weak easterly low-level flow may favor
patchy fog in Suwannee Valley, so that`s incorporated into the
forecast. On Saturday, PWATs increase to around 1.5 to 1.7"
with lower values in Southwest GA located closer to the ridge.
Northeast low-level flow will impede/delay inland progress of
the seabreeze as a mid-level shortwave and associated front
approach from the northwest. This favors slightly higher PoP
chances from Southeast AL into the FL Counties, but highest
west of the FL Big Bend; this was coordinated with surrounding
offices with PoPs capped around 30%. Instability is scant for
thunder, so main concern is scattered showers, but an isolated
thunderstorm is possible. But overall, most locations remain
dry. Another unseasonably warm day is in store with highs in
the lower to middle 90s away from the coast. Dew points in
the mid 60s to around 70 will yield apparent temperatures/heat
indices several degrees above the ambient temperature, in the
upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A broad upper trough axis will move east across the Great Lakes
region and the Ohio Valley during this period, pushing a cold
front southward to about the I-10 corridor on Saturday night, then
making a final push south to the coast or offshore into the Gulf
on Sunday evening.

The front itself will be accompanied by mostly disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, maximized during the typically favored
afternoon and evening hours. The air mass near the front will be
moist, with PW values running in the 1.7 to 2.0 inch range.
However, jet stream lift will be lacking, and deep- layer shear of
around 15 knots would only support a multi- cell cluster or two
at most. So look for scattered convection where low-level
convergence is maximized along the front, or along the seabreeze,
or both.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A broad and weak upper trough axis will carve out near the Lower
Mississippi River on Monday, putting our service area in weak
southwest flow aloft. It will take all week for that trough axis
to move east to near the I-75 corridor next Friday. Downstream of
this slow-moving feature, a surface low pressure trough will line
up over the Atlantic parallel to the Georgia and Carolina coast,
with a trailing front down across the FL Peninsula. This will
keep persistent low- level northeasterly flow going all week. For
most of our region, this will be a modestly drier direction, with
temperatures running at or a few degrees below normal.

For the SE Big Bend and Suwannee Valley, the northeasterly
trajectory will have a bit more Atlantic maritime influence,
meaning deeper and somewhat richer moisture. The SE Big Bend will
also have closer proximity to a stalled front near Central
Florida. So higher rain chances throughout next week will
consistently be over the SE Big Bend, with a dry or low PoP
forecast along and north of a Panama City to Tifton line.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

High pressure centered over the region today with VFR conditions and
light easterly winds which will be variable in direction at times.
The weak pressure gradient will allow a seabreeze to develop at ECP,
where a line was added to the 18Z TAFs indicating winds veering from
easterly to southerly. Saturday morning, a low probability of MVFR
restrictions in fog at VLD around sunrise, which may be added to the
TAF in subsequent issuances if the probability continues to
increase.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A broad low over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle easterly
breezes over the waters through Saturday morning. The low will
weaken and dissipate later Saturday. A cold front will slip south
through the waters on Saturday night, followed by a turn to
north and then northeast breezes from Sunday through Tuesday. Look
for nighttime and morning freshening of winds across the
nearshore waters, with afternoon lulls. Flow will turn more
easterly next Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A weak front moving southward through the region this weekend
may lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Saturday from
Southeast AL into the FL Counties, and closer to the FL Big Bend
on Sunday. Pockets of low dispersion are expected to linger into
Saturday afternoon northwest of the FL Big Bend mainly due to
weaker transport winds. Higher northerly transport winds and
mixing heights on Sunday in the wake of a frontal passage may
yield pockets of high dispersion during the afternoon across
portions of the region, although there is uncertainty, so it`s
too early to highlight specific areas. The seabreeze will make
some inland progress Saturday but is expected to remain pinned
closer to the coast on Sunday with winds shifting from northerly
to southerly with its passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

No flooding is expected through Friday of next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  94  73  94 /   0  10  10  20
Panama City   74  93  75  93 /   0  10   0  10
Dothan        70  93  71  92 /   0  10   0  10
Albany        71  94  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      69  94  72  94 /   0  10  10  20
Cross City    71  94  73  94 /   0  40  10  40
Apalachicola  76  88  75  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Haner