345
FXUS62 KTAE 210853
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
353 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Dense fog across the region will have impacts to travel through
   mid to late morning. Another round of dense fog is possible
   tomorrow morning across the FL Big Bend.

 - Drought persists and/or worsens with little to no rain and
   unseasonably warm temperatures expected through mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fairly benign conditions are expected through midweek next week.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft remain in control. The ridge
flattens out briefly this weekend as a shortwave passes by north of
the area. The majority of the forcing for ascent will remain north
of the area as well, leading to minimal rain chances this weekend.
The ridge builds back in over the region Sunday through Wednesday
before the next cold front looks to approach the region from the
west. Models are in some agreement that a deep trough will move
across the southeast Wednesday into Thursday. However, similar to
this weekend`s shortwave, forcing for ascent from PVA will be
minimal. Forcing may primarily come from being under the right
entrance region of the upper-level jet streak. It`s still fairly
uncertain how widespread precip coverage will be, but current
guidance favors less than half an inch of rainfall. Make sure to
come back for updates.

Dense fog across the region this morning will gradually lift after
sunrise. Another round of dense fog is possible tomorrow morning
across the FL Big Bend. Dense fog is advecting across the region due
to warm moist southerly air moving over the cooler waters of the NE
Gulf. Winds will shift to being northerly Sunday into Monday limiting fog
potential until Tuesday when winds shift to being southerly again.

Expect daytime highs to generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s
with overnight lows generally in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

LIFR cigs/vsbys are currently impacting ECP and within the next
couple hours are expected to impact DHN/TLH. Restrictions are
expected to taper off some toward ABY/VLD with medium confidence
in a period of LIFR around sunrise at ABY and a period of MVFR
around sunrise at VLD. A gradual lift at all terminals in
cigs/vsbys beginning ~13-16Z with a return to VFR ~16-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Dense fog will expand across the nearshore waters from Mexico
Beach to Keaton Beach. The fog should dissipate by 10 AM ET/9 AM
CT. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly breezes continue through
Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. No rain is expected
over the marine area with the front, only a wind shift out of the
north by Sunday. Winds gradually shift out of the east by Monday
then southerly and increasing to moderate on Tuesday ahead of the
next cold front midweek. Seas remain favorable at around 1 to 3
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Transport winds increase out of the south and southwest today to
around 10-15 mph, then increase further on Saturday to 15-20 mph
ahead of a cold front. Mixing heights will be around
3,000-4,000 ft both days. Thus, good dispersions are expected
away from the coast both days. Min RH values will be in the 40s
and 50s both days with excellent recovery overnight. Chances for
a wetting rain on Saturday remain very low.

On Sunday, transport winds become more northerly around 5-10 mph
behind the cold front with fair to good dispersions expected. Min
RH values drop to the 30s for most of the area Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Rainfall amounts across the region will generally be around half an
inch or less over the next week. Thus, drought conditions will
therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the Tri-State area.

As of yesterday, the US Drought Monitor now has the area around the
Florida-Georgia state line outlined in Exceptional Drought (D4),
which is the highest category on the drought monitor. This is the
first time since the 2011-2012 winter that any part of our area of
responsibility has been outlined in Exceptional Drought.

For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  61  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   76  66  79  62 /   0  10  20   0
Dothan        79  64  83  57 /   0  10  10   0
Albany        82  62  83  55 /   0  10  20   0
Valdosta      83  59  83  59 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    82  56  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  64  76  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     FLZ007>016-027-028-112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>067.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ068-069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     GMZ730-735-752-755.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver