263
FXUS62 KTAE 021523
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1023 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1014 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

 - There is a low chance of rain (10-30 percent chance) from this
   afternoon through Monday morning. Where rain occurs, it will be
   less than one- quarter inch. Thereafter, no additional rain is
   expected this week, so drought conditions will worsen.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Thickening
cloud cover is filling the skies from SW to NE ahead of a trailing
shortwave trough off the TX coast, which has kept temperatures on
the relatively cooler side across our Central Timezone Counties
(widespread 50s) vs low 60s for locations eastward as of about
15Z. High temperatures are forecast to hover around 70 degrees.

Although radar returns are evident off the FL Panhandle coast,
the airmass is dry with satellite-derived Precipitable Water well
below 1", so rain chances remain low, topping out at less than
30%. If any precipitation develops, it is expect to be in the form
of only light showers. Skies clear from west to east as the
afternoon progresses in response to the lead, northern-stream
shortwave and attendant cold front shifting east of the TN Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday morning)
Issued at 114 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

A cool and dry air mass is in place across the region early this
morning.

Water vapor imagery nicely shows an upper low moving from
southeast Missouri toward the TN Valley region. This feature will
continue across north Georgia and South Carolina tonight. It will
push a reinforcing cold front across our region this evening,
followed by a strengthening of northerly winds and freshening the
cool air mass before sunrise Monday.

We will struggle to get much rain out of this setup. There is
little low-level moisture return in advance of the incoming front.
For example, surface dewpoints under the associated cloud deck
across southern MS and northern AL have only risen to the low 50s.
Precipitable Water (PW) values in that region are under 1 inch. So
we will need to rely on mid-upper level features to squeeze out
any rain. The most prominent place for lift and perhaps some
elevated instability will be closest to and just in advance of the
center of the upper low. The core of this feature will be confined
to areas north of the U.S. 82 corridor, or north of a Eufaula to
Tifton line. This is where spotty amounts in excess of 1/10th of
an inch could occur. South of there, we may see some virga this
afternoon as rain tries to fall out of mid-level clouds, but model
soundings show a dry sub-cloud layer which will limit any rainfall
to a few hundredths of an inch.

Skies will clear out west of the I-75 corridor by sunrise Monday,
and cold air advection will help temperatures fall into the 40s
despite some wind to disrupt radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 114 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

No rain is forecast for the rest of the week, so the week will end
with a worsening of drought conditions.

Our upper heights will quickly rebound late Monday and Monday
night, as a strong 500 mb high expands east from Texas along the
Northern Gulf Coast. 500 mb heights will peak on Tuesday night in
the impressively high 5900-5920 meter range. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure will settle southward directly across our region
from Tuesday night through Thursday. By Thursday, daytime highs
will have had the opportunity to warm to near 80 degrees, but the
dry air mass will still allow nights to cool off into the 40s over
inland areas.

On Friday and Saturday, the upper ridge along the Gulf Coast will
weaken and retreat southward. Heights will lower modestly, and
faster westerly flow aloft will spread across the region. The more
dominant lobe of surface high pressure will shift out toward
Bermuda, so we will start to get a bit more easterly and
southeasterly low-level flow. Dewpoints should gradually rise
around Friday and Saturday, which will raise RH and prop up
morning low temperatures heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Cloud cover will increase through the day; however VFR conditions
will prevail. Light and variable winds will become
westerly/northwesterly following the cold front this afternoon.
There is a slight chance for isolated showers developing late this
evening for TLH, and early tomorrow morning for ABY and VLD
terminals; yet confidence is not high enough to include in the
TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

A reinforcing cold front will pass across the waters this evening,
followed by a turn to fresh and strong northerly breezes which
will continue through Monday evening. A Small Craft Advisory may
be required. Surface winds will clock around northeasterly and
start to decrease on Tuesday as high pressure moves across the
Southeast States. Weaker easterly flow is expected Wednesday and
Thursday, with a high pressure ridge close to the I-10 corridor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

A reinforcing cold front will cross the districts late today and
this evening, accompanied by a low chance of rain. Where rain
occurs, amounts should remain well below one-quarter inch. Gusty
northerly winds will follow the front on Monday, as soon as the
nighttime inversion breaks on Monday morning. Winds will decrease on
Tuesday, and a warming trend will begin, culminating in near normal
temperatures by midweek. Otherwise, a dry air mass will remain in
place through about Thursday, with Min RH generally under 40
percent. A moistening of the air mass is expected starting around
Friday. No wetting rain is forecast for the next 7 days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 114 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

No flooding is expected for at least the next 7 days.

There is a low chance of rain from this afternoon through Monday
morning. Where rain occurs, amounts will be light and will not be
hydrologically significant. The rest of the week ahead will be
dry. Drought conditions will therefore worsen this week. For more
drought information, visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  47  70  46 /  10  10  10   0
Panama City   70  47  69  49 /  10  10   0   0
Dothan        70  43  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
Albany        70  46  69  44 /   0  30  10   0
Valdosta      71  47  70  44 /  20  20  20   0
Cross City    73  50  72  47 /  10  20  10   0
Apalachicola  67  49  67  51 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner