377
FXUS62 KTAE 220236
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
936 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

No major changes made to the overnight forecast. Nudged dew points
up slightly based on current observational trends, but the forecast
appears to be otherwise on track. Elevated winds should keep
radiational cooling and frost formation at bay as the secondary cold
front continues its passage through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

A re-enforcing cold front is moving through the southeast US and
will pass through our area late tonight. This will bring another
push of cold, dry air during the overnight hours. Lows are tricky
tonight as we`re embedded in a cold air advection regime. Winds will
remain elevated around 5-10 mph. The deterministic NBM is on the
warm side of the guidance envelope tonight (upper 30s to mid 40s),
even higher than it`s 95th percentile within its distribution.
Meanwhile, the HREF indicates shows a greater than 50% chance of
temperatures below 40 north of I-10 with about 20-30% chance of
below 36 across the AL/GA counties. Thus, went with a heavier weight
toward NBM50 and MOS guidance, which yields mid 30s to near 40 for
tonight. Winds appear to be too high and humidity too low for
widespread frost development. Wouldn`t be surprised to see patchy
frost in sheltered locations, but it`s not enough to issue a frost
advisory at this time. Highs tomorrow under the advective regime
will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s across the area with abundant
sunshine.

&&

.SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Surface high pressure will slide east across the northern Gulf
coast this weekend, from southern Mississippi Saturday to the
Florida peninsula Sunday. Saturday morning will be the coldest of
this period, with a potential for a light freeze in the Flint
River Valley in outlying areas with areas of frost through much
of the area north of I-10. As the high pressure moves east and
winds become southerly beginning Sunday, a gradual warmup and
moisture levels increase heading into early next week with highs
reaching the upper 70s and lows in the 50s. A cold front arrives
into the southeast US Tuesday but stalls north of the tri-state
area, southerly flow continues into midweek with above normal
temperatures continuing. Rain chances are low Tuesday and
Wednesday (10-20%) and any rain would be minimal.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions for all of our TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Wind
directions are generally out of the WNW, becoming more northwesterly
into tomorrow. Wind speeds abate slightly in the overnight hours
before climbing into the 10kt range with gusts up to 15-20kts for
the remainder of the day tomorrow. Current obs at VLD show calm
surface winds with near 30 kts at 2000ft via the KVAX VAD Wind
Profile. Therefore, LLWS was added to the TAF through 06z,
afterwhich confidence is too low at this time to continue the LLWS
group.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 934 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting sustained NW winds around 20-25 kts
with gusts near 30 kts, 4-6-ft seas, and a dominant period of 4-7
seconds late this evening. Winds were increased overnight by
blending in the HRRR, which shows a stronger northwesterly surge
with the passage of a reinforcing cold front. Brief gusts at or near
gale force are possible.

From CWF Synopsis...Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue
into Friday morning.Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up
to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on
Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the
weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing
winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet.
As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the
surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Another cold front moves through the service area tonight bringing
an increase in transport winds on Friday. Transport winds will be
out of the northwest at 20-25 mph. This will lead to good
dispersions with areas of high dispersions east of I-75. Min RH
values will drop into the mid-30s across the area. Dispersions will
decrease over the weekend as winds become light. Min RH will remain
in the mid to upper 30s each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 157 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Little, if any, rainfall is expected through mid next week. There
are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   42  60  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   44  62  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        38  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        37  57  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      40  59  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  63  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  46  62  42  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EST Friday for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mutschler
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Mutschler
MARINE...Scholl/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Scholl