Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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851 FXUS62 KTAE 292002 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 302 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Elevated fire danger this afternoon in Southeast AL and portions of Southwest GA due to low relative humidity and ongoing drought. - A high chance of rain is expected by early next week, and this rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions. The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. - There is a low chance of severe weather with the next system Monday night into Tuesday near and along the eastern Florida panhandle coast. Monitor updates through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday night) Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Surface high pressure will weaken and move east as our next frontal system approaches the area Sunday and into Sunday night. This next frontal system is expected to be quite weak but it will gradually stall across the area Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of this front, weak isentropic ascent along a coastal boundary could lead to a few isolated showers into the evening along the Panhandle but probabilities remain low and less than 15%. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Main sensible weather highlights will develop through the early part of the upcoming week as our first widespread chance of a good wetting rain develops. The period starts off with a stationary front draped over the region. Further to our west in a region of broad elevated southwesterly aloft, the next upper level wave will be taking shape. As this wave moves east through into Tuesday, it will begin interacting with the stationary front and by early Tuesday morning the warm front should be advancing inland as a surface low and cold front moves east. Widespread rain should overspread our Alabama/Georgia counties and the Panhandle early Tuesday north of the warm front. Activity should be more scattered south of the front. Main concerns with the front will be potential severe weather. There is still considerable uncertainty in the expanse of the warm sector necessary for some severe potential. The Euro guidance keeps the surface low weaker and much further south. In this case, severe potential would likely be confined to the coastal regions or just offshore while the GFS is stronger and more north with the surface low. A GFS solution would likely mean a slightly better severe threat across our Florida counties as the warm sector penetrates further inland. Flooding from heavy rain should largely be limited given the more progressive nature of the system, but heavier amounts around 1 to 2 inches would have a better chance of falling further southeast across southwest Georgia and the Big Bend if the Euro solution happens. After the front moves through, a period of mostly quiet weather is expected until the end of the week. The next system won`t arrive until later in the week and next weekend but most guidance is indicated another round of beneficial rain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Cloud-level moisture will advect in overnight in association with a southeast low-level jet. There is uncertainty with respect to the depth and extent of the moisture across the terminals which translates into a lower confidence forecast, including the timing. Overall, the strongest signal for low clouds is at ABY and VLD, where we`re most aggressive with lowering cigs to MVFR after 06Z with IFR possible. Included MVFR cigs at TLH starting ~05Z and a TEMPO for MVFR cigs around sunrise at ECP. At DHN, cannot rule out restrictions, but maintained VFR given the low probability. Expect a return to VFR around 15Z although cannot rule out brief MVFR cigs given cloud bases in the 3-4k ft range. Aforementioned low-level jet atop decoupling boundary layer is expected to lead to Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at ABY after ~06Z but not at VLD attm as the jet begins to pull away as surface winds subside. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds will gradually shift to an easterly direction today and diminish below 20 knots by early this afternoon. Another surge of easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots tonight admonishes small craft operators to exercise caution. A strong cold front will push through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday with winds increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into Tuesday. A period of below-advisory conditions is likely during the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. This should keep fire weather concerns low through at least Tuesday afternoon. Only concerns will areas of low dispersions on Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025 The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday. This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 50 73 55 72 / 0 10 10 20 Panama City 53 74 57 73 / 0 10 20 20 Dothan 46 71 51 66 / 0 20 20 20 Albany 45 70 49 66 / 0 20 10 20 Valdosta 47 74 52 71 / 0 10 10 20 Cross City 51 79 54 79 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 56 70 59 70 / 10 10 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...LF MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs