633
FXUS62 KTAE 060604
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
104 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 104 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Beneficial rain is expected this weekend, especially late
  Saturday night into Sunday in the Florida Big Bend, where there
  is up to a 50% chance of 2 inches or greater of rainfall.

- Areas of fog may impact Sunday morning travel north of I-10 into
  portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia, where there
  is a 30% chance of locally dense fog.

- Advisory-level conditions for small craft are possible Sunday
  night into Monday, especially west of the Ochlockonee River,
  where there is a 50% of advisories.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Overall, a chilly and wet weekend is on tap for those attending
outdoor events. The main challenge will be late tonight into
Sunday as one or more areas of low pressure ripple along a stalled
front to our south over the Gulf. The placement of this front
will determine the axis of heavier precip. The ECENS and GEPS have
the axis south of the Forgotten Coast into the Southeast FL Big
Bend for several runs now, while the GEFS and HREF place it
further north toward the I-10 corridor. So there is a lot of
uncertainty which yields a lower confidence forecast in where the
axis sets up, where a reasonable worst case scenario is 3 to 4+
inches of rainfall, and up to a 50% chance of 2 inches or greater
of rainfall. Otherwise, most likely amounts range from 1 to 2
inches, except below 1 inch west of the Flint River into Southeast
AL. Along and south of the front, there will be an overlap of
instability and low- level SRH from late Saturday night into
Sunday, but this will struggle to make it much further north than
the Forgotten Coast. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor and both
cloud cover and heavy rain will tend to limit instability, so
expect much of the convection over land to be elevated, so this
minimizes any severe weather potential.

Patchy to areas of fog this morning and another round of possibly
more impactful fog Sunday morning, with a 30% chance of locally
dense fog north of I-10 into portions of Southeast Alabama and
Southwest Georgia. Highs mainly 50s today except 60s closer to
the Gulf coast. On Sunday, highs in the 50s north and 60s south,
which is between the 10th and 25th percentile of the guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Lingering showers Monday, especially across eastern areas in
the morning, with gradual clearing from west to east. It will be
breezy with northwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph, which is
closer to the 90th percentile of the guidance. It will turn chilly
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with lows dipping down into the
lower 30s to lower 40s, leading to the potential for cold weather
sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations. A warming trend
will take hold by Wednesday with highs returning closer to normal,
with mainly dry weather through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

A moist and stable air mass will prevail for the next 24 hours.
Shallow northerly flow will persist through the day on Sunday at the
surface, overtopped by southwest and west flow aloft. Generally
murky and wet flying weather is expected.

Through sunrise, a relative lull in rain is expected. Cigs and vsbys
will change little.

After sunrise, a large area of light rain will overspread the
region. A little drier air above the surface should create more
breaks in the low overcast, but vsbys will gradually decrease due
to growing intensity of rainfall.

In the afternoon, stratiform rain will become moderate or even heavy
at times. A rumble of embedded thunder cannot be ruled out, but that
is not included in the TAFs due to lack of confidence. The rain will
mainly be responsible for vsbys near 3SM or less as the axis of
heaviest rain moves across each respective terminal.

On Saturday evening after sunset, rain intensity will start to ease.
However, low-level flow will become more easterly, setting up moist
advection and low-level warm advection lift. This should lower cigs
well below 500 feet. Despite a lightening of the rain, vsbys will
eventually drop due to contribution of mist and perhaps fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Unsettled weather this weekend with exercise caution conditions
at times for small craft. Advisory-level conditions for small
craft are possible Sunday night into Monday, especially west
of the Ochlockonee River, where there is a 50% of advisories.
More tranquil boating conditions by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Cloudy with Wetting rains on tap through this weekend, then
a return to dry weather early next week, but temperatures
remain below normal until midweek. Transport winds northwest
today will become southeast Sunday and lower mixing heights
contribute to low daytime dispersion areawide today and Sunday.
Looking ahead to Monday, brisk northwest winds will lead to at
least medium dispersion, with recent rainfall and higher RH
tending to mitigate fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Beneficial rain expected across the region through the weekend,
as discussed in the short term section above. Thereafter, a dry
pattern sets in Monday through much of next week. Latest US
Drought Monitor (Dec 4) has much of the region in Extreme (D3) to
Exceptional (D4) drought; the only change in the last week is a
1-category improvement from Extreme (D3) to Severe (D2) in
portions of Coffee, Dale, and Henry counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   58  51  61  54 /  80  70  70  40
Panama City   58  52  64  54 /  80  70  70  50
Dothan        52  46  58  50 /  90  30  40  50
Albany        54  46  58  48 /  90  30  30  40
Valdosta      58  49  60  51 /  90  70  70  40
Cross City    69  54  65  56 /  30  70  80  60
Apalachicola  62  55  64  56 /  60  70  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF