851
FXUS62 KTAE 292002
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
302 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Elevated fire danger this afternoon in Southeast AL and portions
  of Southwest GA due to low relative humidity and ongoing drought.

- A high chance of rain is expected by early next week, and this
  rain will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions.
  The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of
  the area on Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance
  of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama and the
  Florida panhandle.

- There is a low chance of severe weather with the next system
  Monday night into Tuesday near and along the eastern Florida
  panhandle coast. Monitor updates through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Surface high pressure will weaken and move east as our next
frontal system approaches the area Sunday and into Sunday night.
This next frontal system is expected to be quite weak but it will
gradually stall across the area Sunday night into Monday. Ahead of
this front, weak isentropic ascent along a coastal boundary could
lead to a few isolated showers into the evening along the
Panhandle but probabilities remain low and less than 15%.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Main sensible weather highlights will develop through the early
part of the upcoming week as our first widespread chance of a good
wetting rain develops.

The period starts off with a stationary front draped over the
region. Further to our west in a region of broad elevated
southwesterly aloft, the next upper level wave will be taking
shape. As this wave moves east through into Tuesday, it will begin
interacting with the stationary front and by early Tuesday
morning the warm front should be advancing inland as a surface low
and cold front moves east. Widespread rain should overspread our
Alabama/Georgia counties and the Panhandle early Tuesday north of
the warm front. Activity should be more scattered south of the
front.

Main concerns with the front will be potential severe weather.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the expanse of the warm
sector necessary for some severe potential. The Euro guidance
keeps the surface low weaker and much further south. In this case,
severe potential would likely be confined to the coastal regions
or just offshore while the GFS is stronger and more north with
the surface low. A GFS solution would likely mean a slightly
better severe threat across our Florida counties as the warm
sector penetrates further inland.

Flooding from heavy rain should largely be limited given the more
progressive nature of the system, but heavier amounts around 1 to
2 inches would have a better chance of falling further southeast
across southwest Georgia and the Big Bend if the Euro solution
happens.

After the front moves through, a period of mostly quiet weather is
expected until the end of the week. The next system won`t arrive
until later in the week and next weekend but most guidance is
indicated another round of beneficial rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Cloud-level moisture will advect in overnight in association with
a southeast low-level jet. There is uncertainty with respect to
the depth and extent of the moisture across the terminals which
translates into a lower confidence forecast, including the timing.
Overall, the strongest signal for low clouds is at ABY and VLD,
where we`re most aggressive with lowering cigs to MVFR after 06Z
with IFR possible. Included MVFR cigs at TLH starting ~05Z and
a TEMPO for MVFR cigs around sunrise at ECP. At DHN, cannot rule
out restrictions, but maintained VFR given the low probability.
Expect a return to VFR around 15Z although cannot rule out brief
MVFR cigs given cloud bases in the 3-4k ft range. Aforementioned
low-level jet atop decoupling boundary layer is expected to lead
to Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) at ABY after ~06Z but not at VLD
attm as the jet begins to pull away as surface winds subside.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winds will gradually shift to an easterly direction today and
diminish below 20 knots by early this afternoon. Another surge
of easterly winds between 15 and 20 knots tonight admonishes
small craft operators to exercise caution. A strong cold front
will push through the area on Tuesday. This front will bring a
chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday
with winds increasing to around 20 knots on Monday night into
Tuesday. A period of below-advisory conditions is likely during
the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Relative humidity values will be higher today compared to the last
couple of days as low level moisture returns to the region. A
wetting rain is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. This should
keep fire weather concerns low through at least Tuesday afternoon.
Only concerns will areas of low dispersions on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 110 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area
mainly on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will give the
region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in
some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches
across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle
with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. There
is a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain across southeast
Alabama and the Florida panhandle on Monday night into Tuesday.
This would be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several
of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the
region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  73  55  72 /   0  10  10  20
Panama City   53  74  57  73 /   0  10  20  20
Dothan        46  71  51  66 /   0  20  20  20
Albany        45  70  49  66 /   0  20  10  20
Valdosta      47  74  52  71 /   0  10  10  20
Cross City    51  79  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  56  70  59  70 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs