368
FXUS62 KTAE 031435
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1035 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

No major changes to the forecast this morning with warm southerly
flow in place across the area. Temperatures are running a bit
above forecast so did bump max temperatures up a degree or so. SCA
over the St. Andrews Bay Waterways is also in good shape with
winds gusting to 30 knots this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Another day of well above average temperatures for inland areas
is expected this afternoon with strong upper level ridging
centered off the coast of the southeast states. High temperatures
ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 are expected away from the
coast. The record high for today at TLH is 89, and we will likely
be close to that this afternoon. Along the coast, the gusty
southerly flow off the relatively cooler water will keep high
temperatures a bit more moderated. For tonight, above average low
temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High pressure over the western Atlantic, just off the east coast
of Florida will lead to warm temperatures with near record
breaking highs, and muggy overnight lows. Southeasterly flow at
the surface with southerly/southwesterly flow aloft will keep the
air moist with dew points in the 60s for the short term. The deep
layer ridging and subsidence will keep rain chances away, and
allow for afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper 80s and
low 90s for our inland regions. Along the immediate coast, temps
will be in the low to mid 80s. It will be a little breezy during
the afternoon hours with gusts around 20-25 mph for Friday and
Saturday due to a tightening pressure gradient from a strong low
pressure system to our west. Overnight lows will be in the
mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

On Sunday, the upper level high will be pushed eastward as an
upper level trough from the west moves east into our region. Ahead
of the trough, a strong cold front will bring us a good chance
for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through the day Monday.
PWATs will increase for this system to nearly 2 inches, which
would indicate the potential for heavy rainfall. The WPC has
highlighted the western third of our CWA in a Marginal (level 1 of
4) risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday and continues eastward
for Monday. This is mainly due to the set up of the system which
could cause training storms leading to run-off in poor drainage
areas. The SPC has highlighted the region in an at least 15% risk
(equivalent to Slight Risk) for Day 4 (Sunday) for severe weather.
Although the instability will be waning, there may be enough for
some storms to produce damaging wind gusts. PoPs for Sunday
through Monday range from 70-80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms
may linger through Monday night into Tuesday morning. Following
the frontal passage, cooler and drier air will settle into the
region.

Ahead of the front, afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Behind the front,
expect temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s by
Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s to low
70s. Expect Wednesday morning to be even cooler due to the cold
air advection of light northerly winds and radiational cooling. A
gradual warmup will follow to end the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A few patches of MVFR ceilings will dissipate by mid-morning with
VFR returning areawide. Gusty southerly winds are expected to
develop with gusts of 20-30 knots from mid-morning until near
sunset. The strongest winds are expected at ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High pressure to our east and low pressure to our west creating a
tightened pressure gradient will lead to fresh breezes to
continue over our marine zones through the weekend. The muggy air
mass will support patches of sea fog. Cautionary level conditions
will likely prevail over our western marine zones for the next few
days. A strong cold front will approach late in the weekend and
for the start of the work week which will then lessen the winds
and seas will gradually subside.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

There are no significant changes from the previous forecast.
Highlights through Saturday will feature near record high
afternoon temperatures over inland locations, along with high
afternoon dispersion values due to strong southerly wind gusts.
Onshore breezes will keep temperatures and dispersion a bit more
moderate near the coast. Despite a muggy air mass, the afternoon
heat will bring Min RH over inland locations into the 35-50
percent range. A fairly strong cold front is expected to pass the
districts on Sunday night and Monday, complete with the next
wetting rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 410 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Showers and thunderstorms return late this weekend. These storms
will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall which would lead
to possible nuisance flooding and river rises. However, our
rivers are in good shape now. There are no riverine flooding
concerns with this upcoming system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  66  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   82  68  81  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        90  66  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        90  66  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      93  68  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    92  67  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  77  68  76  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery