566
FXUS62 KTAE 081725
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1225 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

With a stationary boundary set up to our north and MLCAPE around 500-
1000 J/kg this afternoon, there may be enough instability to force
some showers. Although, with mostly cloudy skies, partly from upper-
level cirrus blow off from Rafael to our southwest, diurnal lifting
mechanisms, such as the sea breeze or the sun, will be hard to come
by. So we turn our attention to the large-scale, model guidance
suggests that small PV maxima`s moving across the region today may
provide just enough lift on the synoptic-scale to aid in forcing for
ascent. Regardless of the forcing mechanism, shower activity is
expected to be limited with PoPs generally under 20%.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight
lows generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Generally dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to
continue through the weekend. Mid level ridging over Florida is
expected to get pushed off to the east by an approaching trough,
leading to relatively zonal flow across the region by the end of
the weekend. Hurricane Rafael is expected to remain over the
central Gulf through the weekend and beyond, slowly moving
westward and gradually weakening. Only marine and beach impacts
are expected from Hurricane Rafael.

Highs are expected to remain quite warm generally in the low to
mid 80s. High humidity across the region will also keep low
temperatures unseasonably warm, ranging from the mid 60s to near
70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

A slightly more progressive pattern is expected for the long term
period with a couple of cold fronts pushing through the region. A
shortwave is expected to push a weaker cold front through the area
Monday into Tuesday, with a few showers possible along and ahead
of it. This front will knock temperatures down a few degrees, with
highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low
60s. A slightly more substantial front is expected towards the end
of the period with highs and lows finally nearing "normal" values
in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

All sites will gradually improve to VFR over the next
couple hours as the cloud deck raises. Beginning around 09z tomorrow
morning, all sites except for KECP will drop once again to at least
MVFR. There is high confidence with KVLD and KABY dropping to IFR as
a result of low ceilings and perhaps even visibilities. There is
also a chance both sites reach LIFR as ceilings could drop extremely
low with notably low visibilities. All sites should become VFR once
again by 15z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Hurricane Rafael is located in the southern Gulf of Mexico and
will generally move westward over the next several days and remain
well south of our northeast Gulf waters. The main impact from
Rafael will be long period swells beyond 20 NM offshore where a
small craft advisory is in effect. Otherwise through Monday, high
pressure off to the northeast will maintain easterly breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low to poor dispersions are anticipated across most of our districts
this afternoon due to the combination of low mixing heights and weak
transport winds. Rain chances decrease today and remain less than 25
percent through the weekend and into next week. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to generally be between 50 to 70
percent today, Saturday, and Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 157 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Minor flooding is expected along the Withlacoochee River through
this weekend. Additional heavy rainfall is not expected this week,
and no additional flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  83  69  81 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   70  84  70  81 /  10   0   0  10
Dothan        69  83  67  79 /  10  10  10  10
Albany        68  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10
Valdosta      68  83  68  81 /  10   0  10  10
Cross City    68  85  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  79  71  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield