304
FXUS62 KTAE 232324
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
624 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Another chilly night is on tap, with high pressure overhead, clear
skies, and light winds. Generally, it will be warmer compared to
Saturday morning, by several degrees in some cases. Conditions are
expected to be most favorable for frost from Southeast AL into
Southwest Georgia from roughly the Flint River west, with another
area in the FL Big Bend to the east of Jefferson County. After
collaboration with surrounding offices, a Frost Advisory is in
effect for the aforementioned areas, from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday
morning. For the remainder of the area, it`s generally expected
to be warmer compared to Saturday morning, so conditions will not
be as conducive to frost. Another clear and dry day is on tap
for Sunday, with highs modifying several degrees, into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM / LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

High pressure moves east of the region early next week, with
warming temperatures, particularly the mornings. As modest
moisture return gets underway, some fog is possible Monday
morning. Highest confidence is in the FL Big Bend into parts
of Southwest GA, where patchy fog is shown in the forecast.

A cold front approaches the region from the west on Tuesday
with the potential for showers, although there is disagreement
in the model guidance as to how far east PoPs will get. For
now, have included at 15% PoP generally northwest of a line
from Fitzgerald GA to Panama City FL. No thunder is expected
attm. Lows warm into the 40s and lower 50s for Monday then
well into the 50s on Tuesday, while highs both days will be
in the 70s.

Looking ahead from mid to late week into the Thanksgiving
holiday, cannot rule out some lingering showers on Wednesday
in the wake of the cold frontal passage, but no cold air
is expected behind this feature with similar temperatures.

Another cold front approaches on Thanksgiving, increasing
chances of precip. Current forecast advertises chances of
precip mainly northwest of the FL Big Bend, but there is
a lot of uncertainty in timing 5 days out. For example,
some solutions keep much of the region dry on Thanksgiving,
while others bring precip across the entire region, due
to timing differences. More importantly, cannot rule out
some strong to severe storms on Thursday or even Friday,
so please stay tuned to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue across all sites
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Fair boating conditions are expected through Wednesday. Northwest
winds tonight will clock around to the east on Sunday and then to
the south Sunday night as high pressure moves east of the waters.
With the approach and passage of a cold front Tuesday and Tuesday
night, winds clock around to the west and northwest. Another cold
front will approach the waters Thanksgiving, with southerly winds
increasing, along with wave heights increasing to 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

The main fire weather concern will be widespread low dispersions
on Sunday through the afternoon due to light westerly transport
winds and modest mixing heights. Dispersions are expected to
recover on Monday, but pockets of lower values will be possible,
mainly in the FL Big Bend. Otherwise, fire weather concerns will
remain low over the next few days with light winds and relative
humidity values remaining above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Portions of Southeast Alabama, Eastern FL Panhandle and Western
Big Bend, and Southwest GA from the Flint River Valley west are
under Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought. Looking ahead, no
appreciable rainfall is expected until at least Thanksgiving, and
the bulk of that looks to remain northwest of the region at this
time. There are no flash flooding over riverine flooding concerns
over the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   40  70  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   44  71  58  76 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        39  69  49  75 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        37  69  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      38  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    34  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  46  70  57  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for FLZ019-028-029-
     034-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
     FLZ114.

GA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ120>126-
     142>145.

AL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CST Sunday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF