458
FXUS62 KTAE 080522
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- A reduction in convective coverage is expected today and
  Wednesday, most notably north of the Florida state line.
  Coverage will once again increase starting Thursday as the air
  mass moistens.

- Moderate heat-related impacts are expected each day for the next
  week, with heat index values reaching the 98-106 degree range
  each afternoon. There is a low chance of dangerous heat index
  values exceeding 107 degrees this weekend and early next week
  over our Florida counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A turn to NE-E low-mid level flow over the last 24 hours has
advected somewhat drier air across areas northwest of an
Apalachicola-to-Valdosta line, where PW values have dropped into
the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. South of that line, PWs are still in
the very moist 1.9 to 2.1 inch range.

Within the drier air, it will be tough to eek out any convection
today, partly due to the drier air and partly due to quick
development of a strong 500 mb high across the Tennessee Valley,
with corresponding height rises and warming aloft across our region.

Further south in the moister air, scattered showers and storms are
still expected, particularly late in the afternoon with the arrival
of the Atlantic seabreeze in continued NE-E background flow. The
background flow will pin the Gulf seabreeze very close to the coast,
confining early-mid afternoon seabreeze convection to coastal
communities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Little change is expected during the day on Wednesday, compared
with Tuesday.

On Wednesday evening, the high pressure wedge nosing down the
Carolina and Georgia Piedmont will start to quickly weaken, as the
parent surface high abruptly ejects from coastal NC out to Bermuda.
Our low-mid level flow will turn easterly and southeasterly on Wed
evening, then south and southwesterly on Thursday. Deeper
moisture, which is currently only sidelined as far as the SE Big
Bend and our Gulf waters, will easily return across the entire
region from Wed night and Thursday.

Meanwhile, Tuesday`s strong 500 mb high development over the
Tennessee Valley will dissipate and wash out just as quickly on
Thursday, leading to geographically broad height falls, along
with corresponding cooling aloft. This will take much of the lid
off convective development, so a quick rebound in coverage of air
mass convection is expected on Thursday, with that increased
coverage continuing Friday.

From Saturday through next Monday, a 500 mb high northeast of the
Bahamas will expand in our direction and retrograde across the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians by late Monday. Our upper
heights will modestly rise. A surface high will get a foothold
near the Delmarva region, turning our low-level flow from
southerly to easterly on Monday. This pattern evolution will start
to eat away at rain chances north of the FL state line, as rising
heights and a turn to low-level easterly flow start to erode the
northern edge of the maritime tropical air mass.

Throughout the long term period, temperatures will run at or a
little above early-mid September normals. Climatologically by Sept.
15, average temperatures have only cooled about 2-3 degrees from
their summer season peak in mid July-mid August, so the
continuation of warm/hot and humid weather is to be expected in
the first 2 weeks of September. After September 15, normal
temperatures start to cool off a degree about every 3-4 days
through mid-November. For those waiting expectantly for cooler
weather, you will be waiting longer, as the CPC 8-14 Day outlook
valid Sep. 15-21 shows the likelihood of above normal
temperatures. So we will be waiting a while longer for the first
cool mornings of the fall season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Some low stratus may briefly affect our northern terminals (VLD,
ABY, and DHN) early this morning. Isolated showers/thunderstorms
could develop this afternoon. Most storms should remain close to
the coast but a few could reach up to ECP, TLH, and VLD later
today. Northeasterly winds today will be gusting around 15-20kts
this afternoon due to a tightening pressure gradient.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will continue over the waters
through Wednesday morning. High pressure near the North Carolina
Outer Banks will quickly exit east late Wednesday, allowing
breezes to decrease and clock around southerly by Thursday. Light
to gentle south and southwesterly breezes will continue through
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Northeast to easterly transport winds of 10 to 15 mph will
prevail through Wednesday morning. Over Southeast Alabama and
Chattahoochee Valley districts, this will contribute to high
dispersion values this afternoon. A somewhat drier air mass will
be in place today and Wednesday , then a turn to southerly winds
on Wednesday night and Thursday will bring a quick return of a
moister air mass. After reduced coverage of thunderstorms today
and Wednesday, the increased moisture on Thursday will push the
daily thunderstorm coverage back up, continuing through the
weekend.

Patchy fog is possible around sunrise on Wednesday morning along
and southeast of a line from Tallahassee to Valdosta.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  75  93  74 /  20  10  40  10
Panama City   91  75  91  76 /  20  10  50  20
Dothan        93  73  93  73 /   0   0  20  10
Albany        93  73  93  73 /  10   0  20  10
Valdosta      92  73  92  73 /  20  10  50  10
Cross City    90  74  91  74 /  70  10  60  20
Apalachicola  87  77  87  77 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner