084
FXUS62 KTAE 052348
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
648 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure over the Florida
Peninsula remains in place through at least tomorrow. Thus expect
fairly benign weather conditions to persist. Fog overnight will
remain a problem as southerly flow during the day continues to
advect warm moist air across the region. Clear skies and calm winds
overnight then condenses this moisture as we cool with patchy to
dense fog then forming. Expect this fog to remain in place until an
hour or two after sunrise as it takes a bit of time to burn off. Low
level stratus that accompanies the fog will then gradually lift
throughout the day, before leading to mostly clear skies by the late
afternoon/early evening hours.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 70s with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Not a lot has changed in the overall thinking through this range
of the forecast. Persistence is the key to the forecast in this
type of pattern. At mid levels, zonal flow over the CONUS is in
place with modest ridging over Western Cuba and the Florida
Straits, which is keeping the storm track well to our north. The
surface pattern is dominated by a high pressure area over the
Eastern Gulf - an extension of the subtropical ridge.

For February this type of pattern lends itself to dry weather,
with the only sensible weather being stretches of foggy
nights/mornings and skies clearing out late morning to midday.
Given that there is limited variability in the model data through
Sunday, didn`t make significant changes to the blended guidance,
except in a few cases where it seems the deterministic blend is on
the higher end of the probabilistic spread. Interestingly, on
Sunday, the deterministic output from the NBM suggests mid 80s for
highs across North Florida, which is around the 90th percentile
of the available guidance within the blend. This is about 4-6
degrees above the MOS and would be very near a record for the
date. Looking at the overall pattern, and an approaching
deamplifying upper low, I don`t really feel that being on the
upper end of the guidance is the best option, so adjusted the
forecast lower on Sunday for MaxTs more so than anywhere else.

By Monday, a broadening trough across the Western CONUS will
begin to shift east and further flatten the ridging across Cuba.
With this ongoing, moisture return off the Gulf will align along
an approaching frontal boundary and return rain chances to the
forecast for the latter portion of the forecast period. While the
details are uncertain given the time range, if the pattern isn`t
progressive enough, the tendency would be for the frontal boundary
to stall across or very near our region, leading to multiple days
of potentially heavy rainfall. Of course, greater specificity in
where heavy rain would occur for Mon-Tue and beyond will be
determined in the coming days. The introduction of rain to the
forecast will result in cooler temperatures, but still above
normal at the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected the next few hours. Another round of
fog with LIFR/VLIFR cigs/vsbys is expected tonight at all sites,
though confidence is a bit lower for ECP, DHN, and ABY. The fog
and stratus will be slow to lift with MVFR cigs continuing until
about 18 to 19z. Clouds will break up after 18z with VFR
conditions afterward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Weak surface high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will lead to
light winds into Thursday. The high slides more into the Atlantic
and allows a light to moderate southerly wind to return to the
Gulf waters by the weekend. Dense fog will remain a factor over
the waters through the week due to the aforementioned light winds
in the northeastern Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Areas of dense fog will be the main concern during the
overnight and mid-morning hours for the next few days.
In addition, low dispersions are likely along the coast
through the day on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

There are no flood concerns through Sunday. An approaching frontal
system on Monday will need to be monitored for potential heavy
rainfall continuing through Wednesday, but it is too early to
assess any risk of flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   80  56  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   74  59  72  62 /   0  10  10  10
Dothan        78  59  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
Albany        78  57  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      78  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    80  53  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  57  68  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey