402
FXUS62 KTAE 061038
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
638 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Thunderstorms through Monday will be strong to possibly severe.
  Isolated damaging wind gusts are the main concern, though
  nuisance flooding, lightning and small hail are also expected.
  There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
  through tonight.

- Dangerous heat index values exceeding 107 degrees are expected
  this afternoon over parts of Southwest Georgia, where a Heat
  Advisory is in effect this afternoon. If outdoors, take frequent
  cooling breaks indoors or at least in the shade. Stay hydrated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

An uncommonly hot day (for early September) is in store, then
strong to possibly severe storms will move across much of the
region late this afternoon, this evening, and possibly into the
overnight hours tonight.

The setup today is a weak surface low to our northeast. The
surface low was over eastern North Carolina yesterday and was the
focus for strong to severe storms on Saturday from North Georgia
across the Carolina Piedmont and Coastal Plain. This feature will
migrate southwest today more squarely over SC and eastern GA,
aided partly by a shortwave currently over Kentucky diving south.
Storms will fire off near this larger-scale source of lift within
a strongly unstable air mass. Deep-layer shear exceeding 10 knots
could help organize storms into multi-cell clusters. In an
environment with strong Downdraft CAPE and high WMSI values,
storms would produce gusty/damaging winds as their own rain-
cooled pools of air push the storms along. These storms are
expected to push into our counties east of the I-75 corridor late
this afternoon or early evening, then push off to the southwest.
After that, the main source of uncertainty will be how far
southwest the storms make it, with possibilities ranging from the
U.S. 19 corridor if storms dissipate early, or all the way to the
Panhandle coast early Monday morning if storms hold together. This
will depend partly on how much rain-cooled air remains following
the less organized seabreeze round of storms.

Otherwise, position of the weak surface low will force a gentle
westerly breeze across the region today. Some of the hotter air
that has been baking the Mid-South will get drawn across our
Alabama and Georgia counties today, bringing a warming trend of
highs in the mid 90s. Muggy air will be in place, with dewpoints
in the mid 70s over toward the I-75 corridor. In counties where
the heat index will reach or exceed 108F today, that is where we
have issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thunder chances will remain elevated on Labor Day, boosted by the
tail end of an upper trough bringing cyclonic flow aloft, a very
moist air mass, and surface convergence at the nose of high
pressure bridging south along the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

The southern periphery of surface high will fully bridge across
the region on Monday night, bringing a shift from southwesterly to
NE-E surface winds. Even so, PW values will hover in the very
moist 1.8-2.1 inch range through next Saturday, which is plenty
moist for supporting deep, moist convection. The NE-E surface
winds will die off on Thursday, as high pressure to our northeast
exits off well into the Atlantic. By Friday and Saturday, low-
level flow will become southwesterly, albeit weak. This will be
more favorable for carrying seabreeze convection further inland.

Warm temperatures will continue throughout the week. The moist
air mass will keep nighttime lows anomalously warm, with mid 70s
fairly common.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Patchy fog is developing over a few terminals this morning, and
should clear soon after daybreak. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. MVFR
cigs/vsbys will be possible if thunderstorms move directly over
terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the day
with light westerly/southwesterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light and gentle southwest breezes will prevail through Monday. On
Monday night, the southern periphery of high pressure will bridge
in from the northeast, forcing a shift to gentle and moderate
northeast to east breezes for Tuesday and Wednesday. Northeast
breezes will weaken and turn back southwesterly on Thursday.
Otherwise, thunderstorms will be most prevalent over the waters
each morning, bringing sudden wind gusts, lightning, and possibly
waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will remain in place this
week. Monday night and Tuesday morning will feature a wind shift
from southwest to northeast, as the southern periphery of high
pressure to the north bridges south across the districts.
Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast
each day this week. Thunderstorms through Monday have potential to
be strong, bringing gusty downburst winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Through Monday, flooding concerns will be confined to the short-
lived nuisance variety beneath heavier thunderstorms, mainly
impacting urban and poor drainage areas.

No flooding is expected from Tuesday through next Saturday. River
flooding is not expected for at least the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  75  92  73 /  40  50  80  30
Panama City   90  78  91  75 /  20  40  70  60
Dothan        95  74  93  72 /  30  50  50  30
Albany        96  74  91  72 /  50  70  60  30
Valdosta      94  73  90  72 /  40  60  70  30
Cross City    92  74  89  73 /  30  50  80  50
Apalachicola  89  77  88  75 /  30  40  70  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ124>131-147-148.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner