Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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977 FXUS62 KTAE 091944 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 244 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Tomorrow will once again feature ridging as an upper low continues to traverse across the northern plains toward the Great Lakes. Throughout tomorrow, the ridge will gradually slide further SE over the Atlantic with its northwestern axis over the forecast area. Upper flow will slowly become more zonal (oriented east to west) as a result with relatively weak flow aloft. Despite an anomalously moist airmass remaining in place, weak flow will result in weaker forcing across the area, thus keeping PoPs quite low throughout the day with stray and brief scattered showers possible. As a result of the moist airmass, cloudy conditions are expected to continue with muggy conditions at the surface. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the mid to upper 60s with daytime highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Partly cloudy conditions and perhaps a few showers (maybe even a rumble of thunder) are expected from Sunday night into Monday evening. A weakening frontal boundary will limp into the forecast area as a weak upper level trough passes quickly from west to east well north of the forecast area. Additionally, southeasterly flow on the very far eastern periphery of weakening tropical storm Rafael should give us enough moisture to keep a mention of rain chances across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama counties on Monday. Warm conditions should continue on Monday with high temperatures in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Models are in moderate agreement through the middle of the upcoming week. The front from Monday will limp through much of the forecast area with surface high pressure likely filling into the region into Wednesday. With potentially cooler north and northeasterly flow developing we should finally at least see a downward trend in temperatures away from the near-record values we`ve observed recently. However, even highs around 80 and lows in the mid to upper 50s is still well above normal for this time of year. The upper level pattern should remain somewhat progressive into the weekend as another system potentially moves through on Thursday/Friday, but EC/GFS guidance is still fairly different with respect to the forecast impacts with the Euro bringing better chances for rain and possibly a few storms while the GFS guidance is weaker with more isolated rain chances. Regardless of the Thursday system potential, much of the global guidance and ensembles suggest cooler temperatures into next weekend but like earlier in the week, these temperatures would most likely be around or just above seasonable averages. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all sites this afternoon with occasional MVFR CIGs at KTLH over the next few hours. Some stray showers are possible near KTLH, KVLD, and KABY this afternoon though coverage remains uncertain. Tomorrow morning, widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs will impact all sites with at least MVFR lasting through the majority of the day. KVLD will see the most impacts as LIFR appears increasingly likely around 09-13z with very low ceilings and visibilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Tropical Storm Rafael is located in the southern Gulf of Mexico and continues to slowly drift westward. The main impact from Rafael continues to be long period swells beyond 20 NM offshore. A nocturnal surge in wind will bring small craft advisory conditions to Gulf waters west of Apalachicola overnight tonight. Otherwise, high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will maintain easterly breezes through the weekend and into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Poor to fair dispersions will prevail through the next couple days as mixing heights cap out around 3000-4000ft with easterly transport winds 10-15mph. Low dispersions are possible across SE AL and our Florida counties on Monday as a result. Dispersions are expected to improve as mixing heights increase on Tuesday. Rain chances will remain low as well with chances ranging from around 10- 20%. MinRH values will remain around 55-70% Sunday and Monday as a moist airmass continues to sit over the region. We should see a drop in MinRH on Tuesday as a drier airmass settles in with MinRH generally around 45-55% areawide. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Heavy rains from Wednesday`s flooding event across Valdosta will continue to work their way through the Withlacoochee River basin but with dry antecedent conditions across the basin no significant rises downstream are expected and with Withlacoochee River at Valdosta should fall below flood stage tonight or early Sunday morning. No further hydrological concerns are expected and any rainfall amounts through the next 5 days will not be significant. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 81 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 70 81 68 82 / 0 10 10 10 Dothan 68 81 65 83 / 10 10 10 20 Albany 66 80 66 83 / 10 10 0 10 Valdosta 68 83 67 84 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 69 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 71 78 70 80 / 10 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ750-752-770-772. && $$ NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Worster MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...Dobbs