Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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997 FXUS62 KTAE 221906 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 206 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 High pressure will settle over southern Mississippi or southeast Louisiana tonight. This will set up a clear and dry night across the area. The high is close enough to our area that we`ll see periods of time where radiational cooling may be realized thanks to winds settling to calm. When these bouts occur, temperatures may drop quickly during these breaks in the wind. When the wind picks up (3 to 5 mph), then temperatures may bounce back up. It`s a tricky forecast as it`s not the ideal setup. However, have erred on the cooler side of guidance close to the previous forecast with widespread mid-30s with lower 40s close to the coast. This leans a lot more on the MOS guidance as well as NBM50. Given the very light to maybe calm winds as well as high relative humidity, have issued a Frost Advisory for everywhere but the coast. For those who have sensitive plants, make sure to either bring them inside or cover them to protect them from the cold. High pressure will slide eastward tomorrow and be nearly overhead tomorrow afternoon. Highs will rise into the lower to middle 60s. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 After another cold start Sunday morning with patchy frost, surface high pressure will be transitioning east across the peninsula and winds will shift from the cooler northwest flow to a more moderating southwest return flow with increasing moisture levels. Highs will be 5-10 degrees warmer Sunday compared to Saturday with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The moderating trend continues into Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows also warming into the 50s by Tuesday morning. The first of two cold fronts this period will make a run at the tri- state area Tuesday as the supporting shortwave trough scoots across southern Canada. The tail end of the front will be weakening and there won`t be much in the way of cold air advection behind this front with low rain chances (10-20%) over our SE AL and western FL panhandle counties. Therefore, the 70s for highs will continue into Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger and more potent low pressure system and cold front develops in the southern Plains Thursday as another trough exits the Rockies. This front will have greater rain chances (30-50%) beginning later Thanksgiving day through Friday morning as it swings through our area. Seems the dynamics will be north of the region, and its questionable how much moisture return can occur after the Tuesday front, but there may be a few thunderstorms as well. Rain chances decrease through the morning and afternoon Friday. Friday temperatures will turn cooler with a 10-15 degrees drop in highs with readings back into the 60s with breezy northwest winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Gusty NW winds up to 20 kt will subside after 23z. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Small craft exercise caution conditions will continue through the overnight hours tonight then a gradual decrease in winds and seas back to a more favorable regime are on tap into mid week next week. Surface high pressure will slide across the northern Gulf coast with northwest winds Saturday becoming southerly by Sunday. A weak cold front makes a run towards the coastal waters Tuesday with winds becoming westerly for a brief period then back to southerly later Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Northwesterly transport winds around 10 mph on Saturday will become more westerly on Sunday, then southwesterly on Monday. Overall, mixing heights will remain around 2,500 to 3,500 feet each afternoon, though slightly higher Monday afternoon west of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers. Thus, dispersions will be fair each afternoon across the area, though good over western areas Monday. Min RH values will also increase from the low to mid 30s Saturday to the mid to upper 40s on Monday. Fire weather concerns remain low over the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 40 64 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 41 66 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 35 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 36 63 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 37 64 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 35 66 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 43 64 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Saturday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ112-114. GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Young MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Scholl