159
FXUS62 KTAE 090047
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
847 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Forecast is on track. No major changes were necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Convection has been fairly slow to materialize today, despite the
relatively moist airmass in place across our Florida Big Bend
counties. Much of this has been due to the extensive cloud cover in
place from offshore convection this morning. This cirrus blow off
has drifted northeast over much of the region with the best deep-
layer moisture. With that said, at least in the locations where
PWATS are highest and around 2.0 inches (roughly the southeast
Florida Big Bend), we`ll likely see shower and thunderstorms
develop. The storms should be a little slower to develop than
earlier forecasts given the increased cloud cover. With the later
start, it`s possible any convection that forms lingers longer into
the evening and possibly some of the overnight hours before activity
gradually winds down and begins to develop across our marine zones.

Upper level flow will again remain out of the south and southwest
for Saturday afternoon while moist low-level southeasterly flow
continues as a weak tropical wave slowly shifts west across the
northern Gulf. Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms
is likely across the marine zones in the morning hours. While
rainfall chances remain high, the upper level flow out of the south
and southwest at the anvil layer could again reduce rain chances
across our inland zones depending on how thick and widespread the
anvil/cirrus blow off is. Even with some potential for cirrus, much
better deep-layer moisture should move in from the east and
southeast so it won`t take much instability for showers and
thunderstorms to develop and we`ll likely see a little more coverage
tomorrow.

Some slow movers are again possible so localized amounts of 2 to 4
inches can`t be ruled out along with isolated flooding in areas
under slow moving storms. However, widespread flooding concerns
aren`t expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

With the region on the backside of a weak tropical wave moving
across the Gulf, southeasterly to southerly flow will return by
Sunday leading to higher precipitable water values. This will
lead to a period of increased rain chances, especially on Sunday
and Monday afternoons. There is some concern in the model guidance
as to whether an early start to convection over the coastal
waters will disturb the sea breeze circulation, which can also
make the afternoon convective coverage difficult to predict.
Nonetheless, guidance is in pretty good agreement that higher end
PoPs are appropriate, especially in North Florida. With all the
convection, this will hold afternoon temps back into the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A gradual decrease in deep layer moisture will begin by Tuesday as
the tropical wave dissipates and deep layer ridging begins to
build across the Southeastern US. While we`ll still be in low
level southerly flow during the long term period, the absence of
any surface troughing to initiate convection over the Gulf in the
morning hours will allow for a return to a typical sea breeze
circulation each afternoon. In southerly flow, the convective
pattern tends to favor higher PoPs in North Florida, particularly
the Florida Big Bend and into South Central Georgia. But with
gradually warming temperatures aloft, PoPs will be on the
decrease, especially well inland by the latter part of the long
term period.

With the decrease in PoP chances and the building of the ridge
aloft, this will lead to a return of above normal afternoon high
temperatures and high heat indices that by Wednesday and beyond
will be approaching or exceeding heat advisory criteria. Of
course, it is too early for any heat related products.
Nonetheless, with the pattern looking like it is shifting, it`s
important to note the return of potentially dangerous heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Some TSRA may still develop over the next couple hours near VLD,
but confidence is low at all other terminals this evening. A deck
of MVFR to IFR stratus will move in from the NE late tonight,
impacting all terminals. The stratus will erode from west to east
after 14z, lasting until 19z at ABY and VLD. Scattered TSRA will
develop tomorrow afternoon near TLH, ECP, and VLD first, then
potentially spread toward DHN and ABY late in the TAF period.
Generally NE to E winds around 5-10 kt are expected through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

With the passage of a tropical wave across the marine waters this
weekend, expect numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially
during the overnight hours. Winds will shift to southerly late in
the weekend with rain chances decreasing early next week as high
pressure builds over the Southeastern US.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Low fire weather concerns are expected for the next few days with
moist conditions and increasing rain chances heading into the
weekend. The wettest locations will likely be across the Florida Big
Bend with lower rain chances across southeast Alabama. Dispersions
will be on the lower side, but most locations should still remain
above 25 into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Model guidance suggests that over the next couple of days that
areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend could experience locally
heavy rainfall producing flash flooding. This threat shifts to
more of the entire region by Sunday as southerly flow in a very
moist environment returns. The threat isn`t as significant as
earlier this week, but with recent wet conditions, there is some
concern for localized flash flooding into Monday.

Some smaller rivers and streams are running above normal flows
with a couple in action stage, but most have crested after last
week`s rainfall. At this time, there is no expectation of any
river points reaching flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  86  73  87 /  20  80  40  90
Panama City   75  88  75  88 /  20  80  60  80
Dothan        72  86  72  86 /   0  60  10  70
Albany        72  86  73  86 /   0  70  20  80
Valdosta      73  87  72  87 /  20  80  40  90
Cross City    72  90  72  90 /  50  80  60  90
Apalachicola  76  85  77  86 /  50  80  70  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Godsey