610
FXUS62 KTAE 240731
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
331 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A strong 500 mb heat wave high will remain anchored over the
southern Appalachians through tonight. Here on its southern
periphery, we will remain under deep-layer easterly flow. With
high upper heights and some large-scale subsidence, satellite-
derived Precipitable Water imagery reveals PW values in the 1.3 to
1.8 inch range across the region. This will change little today.
Under normal summer conditions, 1.5 inches is a rough threshold
for deep, moist convection. So there should be just enough
moisture and seabreeze- inspired lift to support a few
thunderstorms. Since convection will have more dry air aloft and
convective inhibition to overcome, it will take until late
afternoon or possibly early evening for storms to develop. They
will most favor the Panhandle seabreeze, where PW values are
currently moistest. Though convective coverage will be less than a
typical summer day, the storms that do form will have robust gust
potential. This is due to entrainment of dry air into convective
downbursts, plus deep-layer shear around 20 knots today and a
fairly quick storm motion (by summer standards).

Temperatures will be the other concern today. Low-level thickness
values will trend higher today, compared with Monday, so high
temperatures will generally be another 1-3 degrees hotter than
Monday. Similar to the last 2 days, deep afternoon mixing will tap
into the drier air aloft and drop inland dewpoints into the upper
60s and lower 70s during the hottest time of day. Keeping in mind
that our Heat Advisory criteria is a heat index of 108-113
degrees, the drier air should keep most of the first order ASOS
stations just below 108. Added moisture near the seabreeze front
will almost certainly boost the heat index above 108 in localized
pockets, especially from inland Bay County to inland Wakulla.
However, would like to see a more widespread coverage of those
values before issuing a Heat Advisory. Regardless, of whether your
location peaks out with a heat index of 105 degrees or 110
degrees, it will be darn hot either way. Effective heat safety
practices are wise either way, such as planning outdoor work for
the early morning or the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A pattern change will begin at the start of the short term. The
upper level ridge that has provided us with mostly dry conditions
and hot temperatures will begin to break down as an upper level
low moves westward across the peninsula on Wednesday. As the Low
moves in, our rain chances increase for Wednesday afternoon into
the evening and overnight hours. We will be in between the upper
level ridge and low, which will increase the mid-level
northeasterly flow. Although midlevels are expected to remain
somewhat dry, instability ranging from 1000-4000 J/Kg and steep
lapse rates around and above 6C/km will be elevated enough to
produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms that will be capable
of strong to severe wind gusts and hail. The SPC has placed the
western half of the CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe
storms and the rest of the region in a Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk for severe storms on Wednesday. PoPs for Wednesday are about
40-60 percent.

Before the rain comes, it will be hot. Temperatures will be in
the upper 90s and flirting with 100 degrees on Wednesday. During
the day, we expect the dew points to mix out capping the heat
index values around 102-105 range; however the heat index may be a
little higher along the Emerald Coast.

The upper level low will still be tracking across the peninsula
and panhandle on Thursday, keeping elevated rain chances in the
forecast. Instability will remain from the day before allowing for
a few storms to become strong or severe. The SPC has placed most
of the region in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms
for Thursday. We can expect afternoon temperatures to return to
normal in the low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid
70s for the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A more typical summer time pattern can be expected for the long
term with diurnal showers and thunderstorms developing along the
sea breeze. With a return to southerly/southwesterly flow, PWATs
will be around 1.8-1.9" which will be conducive for widespread
showers and thunderstorms. PoPs for the extended period range from
60-80 percent each afternoon, with higher chances along and south
of the Florida state line. Temperatures for the long term are
forecast to be average for this time of year with highs in the low
90s and lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A dry mid-level air mass and high pressure aloft will partially
suppress convection, with a lower coverage of thunder than is more
common in summer. The thunder that does form will take until
later in the afternoon or possibly close to sunset to develop. For
now, have confined a VCTS mention to seabreeze-prone ECP and TLH,
while general low-level easterly flow could push the Atlantic
seabreeze all the way inland to VLD by early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Winds will be light around 5-10 kts and begin clocking around
from the east this morning and settling for
southerly/southwesterly flow later this week. During the week,
winds may be erratic, especially in and around
showers/thunderstorms. Daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms can
be expected for the next several days in the overnight and early
morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Above normal temperatures and a somewhat dry air mass will be the
main fire weather concerns today. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and early evening,
mainly along the Panhandle seabreeze from Wakulla County westward.
Though storm coverage today will be less than a typical summer
day, the storms that do manage to develop will come with greater
gust potential and abundant lightning. The heat wave will continue
on Wednesday, but the heat wave high to our north will start to
quickly break down late Wednesday and on Thursday. This will bring
an abrupt increase in thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday and
Thursday. Storms on Wednesday could be particularly strong, with
gusty winds and abundant lightning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Through the week, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage. As PWATs increase, it won`t be
surprising for a few storms to result in heavy downpours. Isolated
flash flooding may occur in low-lying areas or poor drainage.
However, widespread flooding is not expected. Our rivers are in
good condition so, riverine flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   98  75  98  75 /  20  20  60  30
Panama City   95  78  96  77 /  30  30  50  40
Dothan        98  75  98  74 /  10  10  50  60
Albany        99  76  99  74 /  10  20  30  50
Valdosta      99  75  99  75 /  10  20  40  20
Cross City    99  73  97  72 /  10  20  50  30
Apalachicola  90  78  92  77 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery