559
FXUS62 KTAE 052339
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
739 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will develop each day through the
  Labor Day holiday. Storm chances starting Tuesday will then
  decrease a little each day through next week.

- The storms on Sunday and Monday could be strong to possibly
  severe, with isolated damaging wind gusts and heavy rain
  possible. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe
  thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night.

- Above average temperatures are expected through next week.
  Temperatures will persistently run 2-6 degrees above normal for
  early September. On Sunday and Monday, there is a medium chance
  of dangerous heat index values exceeding 107 degrees, mainly
  over the Florida Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Friday)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A very moist and abnormally warm airmass will remain overhead for
the next couple of days. Scattered to widespread storms are
forecast both today and Sunday, with Sunday`s aided by a few small
impulses embedded within the broader trough over the eastern
CONUS. A broad area of low pressure to the north may provide a
focus for thunderstorm development over AL and GA which will then
progress southward into the area Sunday evening and perhaps
lasting into the overnight hours. The atmosphere is well-
positioned for wet microbursts (damaging wind threat) and locally
heavy rainfall with these storms on Sunday. Since there may be a
bit later start to the convection arriving from the north on
Sunday, temperatures may be able to climb a few degrees above the
past few days. This would unfortunately only provide greater
instability for the storms when they do eventually arrive.

On Monday, a weak backdoor front begins to slide into our area
from the northeast before stalling and eventually washing out.
Therefore, there will not be much meaningful change in the
temperatures or humidity with this front. Ridging aloft is
forecast to slide over the southeastern US Tuesday through the
rest of the period, which should be enough to dampen PoPs a bit
despite the ample moisture overhead. Abnormally warm conditions
are expected to persist through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Another round of patchy fog with low ceilings is expected across
most of the area early Sunday morning with IFR/LIFR conditions
possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. On
Sunday afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop with higher chances moving in from the north late in the
period or just beyond 00 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Light and gentle southwest breezes will prevail through Monday. On
Monday night, the leading edge of high pressure will bridge in
from the northeast, forcing a shift to gentle and moderate northeast
to east breezes for Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise,
thunderstorms will be most prevalent over the waters each morning,
bringing sudden wind gusts, lightning, and possibly waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Well-above-normal temperatures will prevail through the holiday
weekend and through the upcoming work week. Temperatures will
generally run about 2-6 degrees above early September normals.
Otherwise, a very moist and somewhat unstable air mass will prevail
through Monday, leading to an abundance of air mass thunderstorms
each afternoon. On Sunday and Monday, the air mass will support
strong to possibly severe storms with gusty winds and lightning.
Storm coverage will decrease a little each day starting Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Through Monday, flooding concerns will be confined to the short-
lived nuisance variety beneath heavier thunderstorms, mainly
impacting urban and poor drainage areas.

No flooding is expected from Tuesday through next Friday. River
flooding is not expected for at least the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  95  75  91 /  10  40  60  90
Panama City   78  91  78  91 /  20  20  30  80
Dothan        74  95  73  92 /  10  30  40  50
Albany        75  96  73  90 /  10  40  70  60
Valdosta      74  94  73  90 /  10  30  70  80
Cross City    75  92  75  90 /  10  20  50  90
Apalachicola  78  89  78  87 /  20  20  50  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Haner