779
FXUS62 KTAE 221704
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1204 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

The forecast is on track, and no significant changes are needed.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

For today, breezy and cool conditions will prevail with clear
skies behind a cold front. High temperatures will generally range
from the mid to upper 50s across the northern counties to the low
to mid 60s closer to the coast. The main concern will be the
potential for frost early Saturday morning as winds diminish
overnight with clear skies and the cold airmass in place. Low
temperatures Saturday morning are expected to bottom out in the
mid 30s for most of the area away from the coast with sufficient
low level moisture for areas of frost. A frost advisory will
likely be needed for most of the area away from the coast tonight,
but the day shift can fine tune the area with another round of
model guidance today.

&&

.SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Calm and dry conditions are expected through this term.
Temperatures will begin on the chilly side, but will gradually
warm through the week as a surface high traverses east, allowing
for southerly flow to return to the region. Morning temperatures
will start in the mid to upper 30s with wind chills in the low
30s, then warm to the mid to upper 50s by Thanksgiving Day.
Afternoon temps will be in the 60s Saturday and low 70s for Sunday
then warm to the upper 70s through the rest of the week.

PoPs chances remain relatively low however, a cold front will
approach the southeast U.S. Tuesday but will stall north of our
region leaving us with a 10%-20% chance for showers and
thunderstorms as we will be in an upper level zonal pattern,
keeping us mainly dry. At the end of the term, global guidance is
indicating a pattern change that may increase our chances for
precipitation for mid-late week with an approaching upper level
trough with an associated cold front. As the models come more into
agreement, we will provide further updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Gusty NW winds up
to 20 kt will subside after 23z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Advisory-level conditions continue today, but the winds will be
starting their downward trend through the day following the
frontal passage early this morning. The Small Craft Advisory
should be allowed to expire this afternoon, with exercise caution
conditions continuing through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning. Afterwards, more tranquil boating conditions ensue with
light northwesterly/northerly winds for the remainder of the
weekend. As we start the work week, winds will become southerly
when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Dispersions will be elevated today with breezy conditions behind
a cold front. Min RH values will drop into the low to mid 30s
across the area this afternoon. Dispersions will decrease over the
weekend as winds become light, but the dry airmass will linger.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 234 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the
start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  38  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   63  41  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  35  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  42  64  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon
     for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery