394
FXUS62 KTAE 121035
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
635 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- The daily cycle of morning coastal thunderstorms and afternoon
  inland storms will continue areawide into early next week, but
  coverage will decrease by then. Stronger storms will be capable
  of gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Moderate heat-related impacts are expected each day for the next
  week, with heat index values generally reaching the 98-106
  degree range each afternoon. There is a low to medium chance
  of dangerous heat index values exceeding 107 degrees on Sunday,
  Monday, and Tuesday, mainly over the Florida counties.

- Patchy morning fog is expected over inland areas through early
  next week, with the Alabama and Georgia counties being favored.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

First of two shortwaves will be moving into the Carolinas early this
morning while the trailing shortwave will translate northeast today
towards the eastern seaboard tonight and Sunday. Very moist airmass
remains in place with PWATs progged at 2-2.3 inches. To get the
morning started, patchy fog is possible across Alabama and Georgia
counties south towards I-10. Much like Friday morning, convection
will get an early start to the day over the Gulf waters and coastal
locations then shifting inland through the day. Rainfall chances
through the area stands at roughly 60-80%. If outdoors enjoying the
first day of the weekend, remember to bring an umbrella and move
indoors when thunder is heard. In addition, locally heavy rainfall
is possible where storms are slow moving or train over the same
locations. Highs today will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s
with heat indices from 98-105F.

On the backside of the departing shortwave trough, upper ridging
will build eastward from the ArkLaTex. Steering flow will gradually
shift northwestward Sunday with drier air moving in as well. PWATs
across the northern half of the CWA fall towards 1.6-1.8 inches
while the more moist airmass is relegated to the Florida counties
where the better rain chances will reside associated with the
seabreeze. The upper ridge slides firmly into the southeast US for
much of the work week and steering flow clocks to northeast and
east. In the meantime, surface high pressure develops and
strengthens down the Appalachians towards the Gulf coast. The
subsequent drier air and subsidence will act to keep rain chances
lower (20-40% each day) and favor south of I-10 associated with the
GCSB and the Big Bend associated with the westward moving ECSB later
in the day.

The warmest days coming up will be Sunday with highs in the low 90s,
and especially Monday and Tuesday with more mid 90s common. Coupled
with dewpoints in the mid 70s yield heat indices in excess of 107F
is spots, which will generally reside in the Florida Panhandle and
Big Bend and towards the Florida State line. This will correspond
with the drier air and lower rain chances. Heading into mid to late
week, the upper ridge shifts west allowing slightly lower highs back
into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Low stratus and some patchy fog continue this morning at all sites
but ECP. IFR/LIFR cigs with MVFR vsbys are possible in the stratus
and fog deck. These restrictions should return to VFR after 14z.
Some SHRA/TSRA has already begun developing along and west of a
DHN- ECP line, moving eastward. Additional SHRA/TSRA is expected
through the morning in this area and possibly near TLH, then
spread through all the terminals this afternoon. Best chances of
TSRA are at ECP, TLH, and DHN where TEMPOs are in place at times
for TSRA. ABY and VLD have PROB30s for TSRA this afternoon. These
should end by 00z at all sites. Cigs will drop again to at least
MVFR/IFR late tonight into early Sunday morning at all but ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Gentle southwesterly onshore flow will continue today and tonight as
well as scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast and in
the marine waters. Gusty winds, dangerous cloud to surface lightning
and waterspouts will be possible. Winds gradually become westerly
Sunday and Monday as high pressure transitions into the north
central Gulf. Coverage of storms gradually decrease early in the
work week with the addition of drier air moving in from north to
south. Tuesday through Thursday will feature building high pressure
through the Appalachians causing an increase of moderate to fresh
northeasterlies with mainly isolated storms in the Gulf waters.
There is a low chance of meeting or exceeding advisory level winds
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
much of the region today, with the greatest coverage shifting to the
FL districts on Sunday, before a notable decrease forecast on Monday
and much of next week. Storms will come with sudden gusty winds,
frequent lightning and brief torrential downpours. Southerly
transport winds today will become westerly Sunday then gradually
clock around to the northeast towards mid week. The heat index will
be in the 98-107 degree range through early next week. Dangerous
heat indices above 107 degrees are possible Sunday into early next
week mainly across the FL districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

One more day of high rain chances with scattered to numerous
coverage throughout the Tri-State region. Drier air starts to filter
in from the north Sunday with scattered thunderstorms generally
relegated to the Florida counties associated with the seabreeze.
Much of the upcoming week will feature more isolated storm coverage
generally south of I-10 and the Florida Big Bend. Though locally
heavy rainfall can occur with slower moving storms with resultant
nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas, widespread
flooding and river flooding is not expected through the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  74  93  73 /  70  10  50  10
Panama City   88  77  90  77 /  60  30  40  10
Dothan        90  72  92  72 /  70  20  30   0
Albany        91  73  93  72 /  50  20  40  10
Valdosta      91  73  93  72 /  60  10  30  10
Cross City    90  75  92  75 /  50  10  50  10
Apalachicola  87  77  88  76 /  60  20  50  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl